Fed Letter: "Has the Fed Fallen behind the Curve This Year?"

From Fernanda Nechio and Glenn D. Rudebusch at the San Francisco Fed: Has the Fed Fallen behind the Curve This Year? Last December, monetary policy analysts inside and outside the Fed expected several increases in short-term interest rates this year. Indeed, the median federal funds rate projection in December 2015 by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants was consistent with four ¼ percentage point hikes in 2016. So far, none of those increases has taken place. Of course, monetary policy decisions are often described as data-dependent, so as economic conditions change, FOMC......(read more)

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