"So You Think A Recession Is Imminent ..."

From Tim Duy: So You Think A Recession Is Imminent, Employment Edition The recession drumbeat grows louder . This is not unexpected. Most forecasters have an asymmetric loss function; the cost of being wrong by missing a recession exceeds the cost of being wrong on a recession call. Hence economists tend to over-predict recessions. Eight of the last four recessions or so the joke goes [1]. And while I don't believe a recession is imminent, there are perfectly good reasons to be wary that a recession will bear down on the economy in the not-so-distant future. Historically, when the Fed begins......(read more)

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