The following is an update to a few graphs and analysis that I started posting in 2005. In 2005 I was bearish on residential investment, and I used these graphs to argue that the then coming housing bust would lead the economy into a recession. Now this analysis is suggesting more growth ... (note: Some of this discussion is updated from previous posts). Discussions of the business cycle frequently focus on consumer spending (PCE: Personal consumption expenditures), but the key is to watch private domestic investment, especially residential investment. Even though private......(
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