Bonds look like they are flashing a warning for global markets

A key interest rate is moving to levels last seen in the fall when markets were worried about trade wars, and that falling yield may be a warning for markets....(read more)

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Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.2% to 2.2%

The preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP will be released on Thursday, January 30th. The consensus is that annualized real GDP increased 2.2% in Q4 . From Merrill Lynch We expect GDP growth in 4Q to hold steady at 2.0% qoq saar . [Jan 24 estimate] emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.2% for 2019:Q4 and 1.7% for 2020:Q1. [Jan 24 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent on January 17. [Jan 17 estimate] CR Note: These......(read more)

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El-Erian warns 'wonderful world of liquidity' lifting stocks no matter what won't last forever

"At some point we're going to have to pivot," said the Allianz chief economic advisor. "But investors right now are just happy focusing on the short-term."...(read more)

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expects next China trade talks in 'near future'

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Friday that he expects to begin negotiations with China on a so-called Phase 2 trade deal soon, with Washington and Beijing on the same page....(read more)

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BLS: December Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Eight States

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in December in 11 states, higher in 4 states, and stable in 35 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Eight states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, 1 state had an increase, and 41 states and the District had little or no change. The national unemployment rate, 3.5 percent, was unchanged over the month but was 0.4 percentage point lower than in December 2018. ... South Carolina, Utah, and Vermont had the lowest unemployment rates in ......(read more)

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10-year Treasury yield falls below 1.7% amid coronavirus fears

10-year Treasury yield falls below 1.7% amid coronavirus fears ...(read more)

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NAHB 2020 "Priced Out" Estimates

NAHB recently released its 2020 priced out estimates. The new estimates show that, if the median new home price goes up by $1,000, 158,857 households would be priced out of the housing market nationwide. In other words, based on their incomes, 158,857 households would be able to qualify for a mortgage to purchase the home before the price increase, but... Read More ›...(read more)

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