The Election and 2021 Economic Forecast

Looking ahead to 2021, there are two key economic issues. The first (and most important) is the course of the pandemic. The course of the economy will be determined by the course of the pandemic. The second is the size, timing and composition of further disaster relief and economic stimulus. These are both unknowns, and all forecasts for 2021 are based on assumptions about these two issues.  As an example, from the minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting, "most forecasters were assuming that an additional pandemic-related fiscal package would be approved this year, and noted that,......(read more)

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