A comment on Q4 GDP

Most economists are revisiting their Q4 forecasts. In their previous forecasts, many assumed some additional disaster relief in Q4, and many underestimated the current surge in COVID. Goldman Sachs economists noted this morning: European and US economies are likely to slow significantly in Q4/Q1 as colder weather puts upward pressure on case growth, in turn triggering restrictions, but reaccelerate sharply in Q2/Q3 following warmer weather, the end of European lockdowns, and mass vaccination. One well known private forecaster (with a great track record) in now forecasting negative GDP in Q4.......(read more)

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