Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased slightly in November

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased slightly to 0.66% in November, from 0.67% in October. The serious delinquency rate is down from 0.76% in November 2018. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  This is the the lowest serious delinquency rate for Fannie Mae since June 2007. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%. Click on graph for larger image By vintage , for loans made in 2004 or earlier (2% of portfolio), 2.45% are seriously delinquent. For loans made in ......(read more)

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US consumer confidence for December comes in at 126.5, vs 128.2 estimate

US consumer confidence for December comes in at 126.5, vs 128.2 estimate<br/>https://ift.tt/2ZCO0sCread more)

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Trump says U.S.-China trade deal will be signed on January 15

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Phase 1 of an American trade deal with China would be signed on Jan. 15 at the White House....(read more)

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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.3% year-over-year in October

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3 month average of August, September and October prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs. From S&P: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Shows Annual Home Price Gains Increased In October The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census......(read more)

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Trump trade advisor Navarro says phase one trade deal is 'in the bank,' waiting on translation

White House trade advisor Peter Navarro spoke to CNBC on Tuesday....(read more)

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Treasury yields rise on final trading day of 2019

U.S. government debt prices moved lower on Tuesday, the last trading day of the year....(read more)

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Question #5 for 2020: How much will wages increase in 2020?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2020 . I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 5) Real Wage Growth:  Wage growth was disappointing in 2019 (up 3.1% year-over-year as of November).  How much will wages increase in 2020? The most followed wage indicator is the  "Average Hourly Earnings" from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) (aka "Establishment") monthly employment report. Click on graph for larger image. Nominal wage growth (blue line) had been running close to 2% from 2010......(read more)

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Hindsight is 2020: Reflecting on a decade of research on the future of the middle class

It's that time of year, when wonks fall in love – with lists of their own papers. Here at the Future of the Middle Class Initiative, we're no exception. But as we are entering a new decade, we decided to look back further than a year or two; we decided to look back an entire…             ...(read more)

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White House adviser says China trade deal signing expected soon

The White House's trade adviser on Monday said the U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal would likely be signed in the next week, but said confirmation would come from President Donald Trump or the U.S. Trade Representative....(read more)

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The Fed seems to have halted a potential crisis in the overnight lending market — for now

Despite concerns that earlier issues would crop up again the funding market seems to be running smoothly....(read more)

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Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands Modestly"

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands Modestly Growth in Texas factory activity resumed in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rebounded to 3.6 after dipping into negative territory last month. Most other measures of manufacturing activity also rebounded in December. The new orders index rose from -3.0 to 1.6. The growth rate of orders index moved up but remained in negative territory for a third consecutive month, coming in at -5.0. The......(read more)

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Top Posts of 2019: What Do Vacancy Rates Tell Us about the Shortage of Housing?

As 2019 ends, NAHB's Eye on Housing is reviewing the posts that attracted the most readers over the last year. In February, Natalia Siniavskaia used housing vacancy rates to estimate the current housing deficit in the U.S. Vacancy rates are one of the key statistics NAHB Economics tracks to judge the health and direction of the housing market. The currently... Read More ›...(read more)

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China's top negotiator Liu He to visit Washington for phase one trade war deal signing this week, source says

China's top negotiator Liu He to visit Washington for phase one trade war deal signing this week, source says ...(read more)

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Treasury yields tick higher amid thin trading in holiday season

U.S. government debt prices were lower Monday morning, amid a quieter trading week due to the holiday season....(read more)

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The Fed could face a possible 'inflation scare' in 2020 with commodity prices on the rise

The Fed could be more unified in 2020, with two dissenters no longer voting, but the central bank has new challenges....(read more)

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Record highs, Chicago PMI and home sales: 3 things to watch for on Monday

Here are the most important things to know about Monday before you hit the door....(read more)

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Fixing repo market a 'trial and error' process, former Atlanta Fed president says

The Federal Reserve may need to continue its open market operations and intervention in the repo markets in 2020, former Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart said....(read more)

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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 39 states in November

From the Philly Fed : The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for November 2019. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 42 states, decreased in five states, and remained stable in three, for a three-month diffusion index of 74. In the past month, the indexes increased in 39 states, decreased in nine states, and remained stable in two , for a one-month diffusion index of 60 emphasis added Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed: The coincident indexes......(read more)

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Question #6 for 2020: Will the core inflation rate rise in 2020? Will too much inflation be a concern in 2020?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2020 . I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 6) Inflation: By some measures , inflation rate has increased and is now slightly above the Fed's 2% target. However core PCE was only up 1.6% YoY through November. Will the core inflation rate rise in 2020? Will too much inflation be a concern in 2020? Although there are different measure for inflation (including some private measures ) they mostly show inflation slightly above the Fed's 2% inflation target.  Core PCE was below the......(read more)

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Question #7 for 2020: Will the Fed cut or raise rates in 2020, and if so, by how much?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2020 . I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 7) Monetary Policy:   The Fed cut rates three times in 2019.  Currently the Fed is forecasting a long pause in 2020 (no change to policy).   Will the Fed cut or raise rates in 2020, and if so, by how much? The Fed raised rates once in 2015, once again in 2016, three times in 2017, and four times in 2018.   And then the Fed cut rates three times in 2019.  Currently the target range for the federal......(read more)

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Treasury yields tick lower in holiday-thinned trading

U.S. government debt prices ticked slightly higher on Friday as investors take note of holiday-thinned trade....(read more)

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The housing trend that's getting millennials on the property ladder

While "generation rent" continues to tussle to buy their first home, a growing section of young people are bringing new meaning to the label with a creative take on property ownership: Rentvesting....(read more)

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Question #8 for 2020: How much will RI increase in 2020? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2020?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2020 . I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 8) Residential Investment: Residential investment (RI) picked up in the second half of 2019, and new home sales were up about 10% in 2019 compared to 2020.  Note: RI is mostly investment in new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement and commissions on existing home sales.  How much will RI increase in 2020?  How about housing starts and new home sales in 2020? First a graph of RI as a......(read more)

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Builders' and Remodelers' Use of Technology in 2019

According to a recent NAHB study, although use of some factory-produced components like trusses has become widespread, the newer and more innovative types of construction technology, such as 3D printing and robots, have so far penetrated the residential market only to a very limited extent.  This is true for both single-family builders and residential remodelers. Data on use of technology... Read More ›...(read more)

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Continued Rise in Community Associations in New Homes Built

According to data from the Census Bureau's Survey of Construction (SOC), 62.5 percent of all homes started in 2018 were built within a community or homeowner's association. A total of 543,000 homes with community associations were started in 2018, compared to 508,000 in 2017. The Census Bureau defines community or homeowner's associations as "formal legal entities created to maintain common... Read More ›...(read more)

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CFPB issues annual report on TILA, EFTA, and CARD Act

The CFPB has issued its annual report on TILA, EFTA, and the CARD Act which covers activity in 2016 and 2017.  The report provides brief summaries of the 2016 and 2017 enforcement actions brought by the CFPB and other federal agencies with relevant enforcement authority and provides data on reimbursements required as a result of enforcement... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 222,000

The DOL reported : In the week ending December 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000 , a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 234,000 to 235,000. The 4-week moving average was 228,000, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 225,500 to 225,750. emphasis added The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image.......(read more)

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Futures hover near record highs as investors count on trade deal

U.S. stock index futures were near record highs on Thursday on optimism that an initial U.S.-China trade deal would be signed soon, easing a dispute that has rattled global markets for the past 17 months....(read more)

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Question #10 for 2020: Will housing inventory increase or decrease in 2020?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2020 . I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 10) Housing Inventory: Housing inventory decreased in 2019 after increasing in 2018. Will inventory increase or decrease in 2020? Tracking housing inventory is very helpful in understanding the housing market.  The plunge in inventory in 2011 helped me call the bottom for house prices in early 2012 ( The Housing Bottom is Here ).  And the increase in inventory in late 2005 (see red arrow on first graph below) helped ......(read more)

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Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Slowed in December

From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Slowed in December Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in December, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index fell from -1 in November to -5 in December , weighed down by decreases in the already negative indexes for shipments and new orders, while the third component - employment - increased slightly. Manufacturers also reported weakness in local business conditions and capacity utilization, but they were optimistic that conditions would improve in the coming months. Many firms saw ......(read more)

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Millennial Buyers' Willingness to Pay for Green Features

Results from NAHB's report, What Home Buyers Really Want (2019 Edition), show that Millennials want an environment-friendly home, but few are willing to pay more for it for that reason alone. They are, however, willing to pay for certain green features, such as those that provide energy efficiency and cost saving benefits over time. When asked ‘how concerned are you... Read More ›...(read more)

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US Treasury yields slip ahead of holiday season

Investors have been taking more risk and dumping bonds for equities as stocks rally into year end....(read more)

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Ten Economic Questions for 2020

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2019 Below are my ten questions for 2020 I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions . The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework to think about how the U.S. economy will perform in 2020 and - when there are surprises - to adjust my thinking. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably just over 2% in 2019, down from 2.9% in 2018. The FOMC is expecting more of the same with growth around 1.9% next year. Some analysts are expecting growth to pick up a little in the coming year as the trade war eases and......(read more)

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OCC appeals NY federal district court final judgment in NYDFS lawsuit challenging fintech charter

The OCC has appealed to the Second Circuit from the district court's final judgment entered in October 2019 in the lawsuit filed by the New York Department of Financial Services seeking to block the OCC's issuance of special purpose national bank (SPNB) charters to fintech companies.  In the final judgment, the district court denied the... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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Redfin Ranks the Most Competitive Neighborhoods of 2019

Redfin has used its housing market data to rank the most competitive neighborhoods of the year. Half are in the Bay Area. The post Redfin Ranks the Most Competitive Neighborhoods of 2019 appeared first on Redfin Blog ....(read more)

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U.S. business spending on equipment weak; housing regaining footing

New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods barely rose in November and shipments fell, suggesting business investment will probably remain a drag on economic growth in the fourth quarter....(read more)

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Monday: New Home Sales, Durable Goods

Weekend: • Schedule for Week of December 22, 2019 • Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2019 Monday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data. • Also at 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for November. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in durable goods. • At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 735 thousand SAAR, up from 733 thousand in October. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures : S&P 500 are up 3, and DOW futures are up 35 (fair value). Oil prices were up over......(read more)

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Ho, Ho, Home Buying? Here Are the Top Markets to Buy a House During the Holidays

Conventional wisdom says the holidays are a terrible time to buy a home, but these real estate markets are making us reconsider. The post Ho, Ho, Home Buying? Here Are the Top Markets to Buy a House During the Holidays appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2019

At the end of last year, I posted Ten Economic Questions for 2019 . I followed up with a brief post on each question. The goal was to provide an overview of what I expected in 2019 (I don't have a crystal ball, but I think it helps to outline what I think will happen - and understand - and change my mind, when the outlook is wrong). Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough).  I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a few comments: 10) Question #10 for 2019: Will housing inventory increase or decrease in 2019? "I expect to see......(read more)

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Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.3% to 2.1%

From Merrill Lynch We continue to track 4Q GDP growth at 1.5% . [Dec 20 estimate] emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: Following today's data, we boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.8% (qoq ar) . [Dec 20 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.3% for 2019:Q4 and 1.6% for 2020:Q1. [Dec 20 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 2.1 percent on December 20, down from 2.3 percent on December 17 [Dec 20 estimate] CR......(read more)

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BLS: November Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Illinois, Oregon and South Carolina

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in November in 7 states, higher in 5 states, and stable in 38 states and the District of Columbia , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Seven states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, 2 states had increases, and 41 states and the District had little or no change. The national unemployment rate, 3.5 percent, was little changed over the month and from November 2018. ... Vermont had the lowest unemployment rate in November, 2.3 percent. The rates in Alabama (2.7......(read more)

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Will The New U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Deal Calm Industry Jitters?

Will The New U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Deal Calm Industry Jitters? ...(read more)

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Lot Shortages Ease Slightly, But Remain a Problem

The shortage of lots that has been hindering the housing recovery eased somewhat in 2019, but remains elevated by historical standards, according to a recent survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The survey consisted of a set of special questions included on the instrument for the September 2019 NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The survey asked... Read More ›...(read more)

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Congress Agrees to Extend NFIP Through September 2020

As part of legislation to fund various federal government agencies after December 20, 2019, the House of Representatives and Senate agreed to extend the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) until September 30, 2020. President Trump is expected to sign the legislation. Congress previously agreed to a short-term extension of the NFIP from November 21 to... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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CFPB Publishes TRID Guides on Construction Loans

Although the 2017 amendments to the TRID rule, often referred to as TRID 2.0, added commentary to TRID provisions of Regulation Z and, particularly, Appendix D to Regulation Z, that addresses multiple advance construction loans, there has continued to be confusion in the industry on how to properly disclose construction-to-permanent, one-time-close loans, especially as a... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Decreased Further in December"

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Decreased Further in December The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the December Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity decreased further in December while expectations for future activity remained positive. " Regional factory activity declined for the sixth straight month in December , driven again by weaker activity in durable goods manufacturing," said Wilkerson.......(read more)

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Personal Income increased 0.5% in November, Spending increased 0.4%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $101.7 billion (0.5 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $87.7 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $64.9 billion (0.4 percent). Real DPI increased 0.4 percent in November, and real PCE increased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. The November PCE price index increased......(read more)

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Sale and Contract Prices per Square Foot in 2018

Looking at single-family homes started in 2018, the median prices per square foot, excluding improved lot values, range from $154 for contractor-built homes in New England to $89 for homes built for sale in the East South Central division. While the median sale and contract prices per square foot are up across most of the nation, some of the most... Read More ›...(read more)

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Q3 GDP at 2.1% Annual Rate

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third quarter 2019 (third estimate); Corporate Profits, Third quarter 2019 (revised estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2019 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 2.1 percent . With the third......(read more)

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US-China phase one deal softens trade risks, but tech dispute remains

Markets may have "priced in" the de-escalation of the U.S.-China trade war as the phase one deal looks set to soften risks related to global growth, but one unpredictable factor remains: technological restrictions the U.S. may impose on China going forward....(read more)

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