Q3 GDP Forecasts: Under 2.0%

The advance estimate for Q3 GDP will be released on Wednesday, October 30th. The consensus is real annualized GDP increased 1.6% in Q3. From Merrill Lynch: We expect the advance 3Q GDP report to reveal moderation in growth to 1.5% qoq saar from 2.0% in 2Q. [Oct 25 estimate] emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: we left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.6% (qoq ar). [October 24 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.9% for 2019:Q3 and 0.9% for 2019:Q4. [Oct 25 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real......(read more)

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