October Employment Preview: Take the Under

Special Notes on GM Strike and Decennial Census : The GM strike has ended, but 48,000 workers were on strike during the BLS reference week. There was probably some spillover to suppliers and others - and the strike will probably reduce October employment by close to 75,000 jobs. The strike is over, and these jobs will return in November. No worries. Over the last two months, the Census Bureau increased the number of temporary workers by 26,000. This phase of the Decennial Census was supposed to end mid-October, and it is possible that some of these workers were let go prior to the BLS......(read more)

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The Bond Trade of the Year May Be Back, All Thanks to the Fed - Bloomberg

The Bond Trade of the Year May Be Back, All Thanks to the Fed    Bloomberg...(read more)

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Q3 2019 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

The BEA has released the underlying details for the Q3 initial GDP report. The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 15.3% annual pace in Q3. Investment in petroleum and natural gas exploration decreased in Q3 compared to Q2, and was down 16% year-over-year. Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. Investment in offices increased in Q3, and is up 6% year-over-year. Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was down about 37%......(read more)

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Homes destroyed, hundreds more evacuated as Los Angeles wildfires spread

More wildfires ignited near Los Angeles on Thursday, destroying homes and forcing evacuations, as the region faced a second day of gusting desert winds that have fanned flames and displaced thousands of people....(read more)

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Trump blasts Fed after rate cut, says hurting U.S. competitiveness

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday launched a broadside attack on the U.S. Federal Reserve and its chairman, Jerome Powell, saying the central bank's policies were hurting U.S. competitiveness....(read more)

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55+ Housing Market Ticks Back Up to Record High

Builder and developer confidence in the 55+ housing market strengthened in the third quarter of 2019, as reflected by the single-family 55+ housing market index (55+ HMI) reading of 72, up one point from the previous quarter (Figure 1). This is the highest reading since the inception of the index in 2008. NAHB produces two 55+HMIs, measuring sentiment in both... Read More ›...(read more)

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Personal Income increased 0.3% in September, Spending increased 0.2%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for September: Personal income increased $50.2 billion (0.3 percent) in September according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $55.7 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $24.3 billion (0.2 percent). Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in September and Real PCE increased 0.2 percent. The PCE price index decreased less than 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased less than 0.1 percent. The September PCE......(read more)

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 218,000

The DOL reported : In the week ending October 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000 , an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 212,000 to 213,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,750, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 215,000 to 215,250. emphasis added The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The......(read more)

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China Doubts Long-Term Trade Deal Possible With Trump

China Doubts Long-Term Trade Deal Possible With Trump ...(read more)

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Fed Cutting Again Would Be Recession Signal: Authers' Newsletter

Fed Cutting Again Would Be Recession Signal: Authers' Newsletter    Bloomberg...(read more)

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Bond Market Signals Doubt Fed Has Shut Door on Further Rate Cuts

Bond Market Signals Doubt Fed Has Shut Door on Further Rate Cuts    Bloomberg...(read more)

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Powell says the Fed would need to see a 'really significant' rise in inflation before hiking rates

Powell says the Fed would need to see a 'really significant' rise in inflation before hiking rates<br/>https://ift.tt/2q5pZwHread more)

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Fed cuts rates, but signals pause in easing cycle

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest rates for the third time this year in a move to ensure the U.S. economy weathers a global trade war without slipping into a recession, but signaled its rate-cut cycle might be at a pause....(read more)

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White House says it still aims to sign U.S.-China trade deal next month

The Trump administration still expects to sign an initial trade agreement with China next month despite the cancellation of the APEC summit in Chile where officials had hoped to finalize the pact, the White House said on Wednesday....(read more)

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Housing Share of GDP Rises in 3Q19

After declines for six consecutive quarters, the home building component of gross domestic product (GDP) increased during the third quarter of 2019. This gain was due to the housing rebound that has taken hold since the spring, with the pace of single-family permits rising since April and the rate of single-family starts increasing since May. The overall housing share of... Read More ›...(read more)

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Borrowers Won't Be Left Behind as Fannie and Freddie Privatize, Regulator Says

For the first time, the Federal Housing Finance Agency called on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to strategize exits from conservatorship. The post Borrowers Won't Be Left Behind as Fannie and Freddie Privatize, Regulator Says appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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Factbox: What happens at the Fed's rate-setting meetings?

The Federal Reserve concludes its latest two-day policy meeting on Wednesday to set a key U.S. interest rate that impacts investors, consumers, and companies around the world....(read more)

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Chile president cancels APEC summit next month where Trump, Xi were expected to meet

Chile president cancels APEC summit next month where Trump, Xi were expected to meet<br/>https://ift.tt/2pgPBXCread more)

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US Treasury says it is gearing up to issue a 50-Year bond

The U.S. may begin issuing 50-year ultra-long government bonds for the first time, Treasury Department said on Wednesday....(read more)

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US GDP rose 1.9% in the third quarter, vs 1.6% growth expected

U.S. gross domestic product - the broadest measure of the U.S. economy - was forecast to rise at a 1.6% annualized rate in the third quarter....(read more)

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Private payrolls increase by 125,000 in October, topping expectations

Private payrolls grew at a faster-than-expected pace in October, but the solid growth was offset by a sharp downward revision for the previous month....(read more)

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Bonds are at a 'critical juncture' ahead of Fed decision, chart watcher says

Ahead of the Federal Reserve's rates decision Wednesday afternoon, technical analyst Matt Maley sees the bond market facing a new big test....(read more)

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QE Is Back in Europe. These Charts Show the Bond Market Winners

QE Is Back in Europe. These Charts Show the Bond Market Winners    Bloomberg...(read more)

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The Fed is expected to cut rates, but how Powell discusses the next move could rattle markets

The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates Wednesday, but what it says about future moves could have a big impact on markets....(read more)

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Exclusive: U.S.-China trade deal may not be ready for signing in Chile - U.S. official

The United States and China are continuing to work on an interim trade agreement, but it may not be completed in time for the U.S. and Chinese leaders to sign it in Chile next month, a U.S. administration official said on Tuesday....(read more)

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Homeownership Rate Bounces Back

According to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS), the U.S. homeownership rate increased to 64.8% in the third quarter of 2019, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous quarter reading of 64.1%. This puts the national homeownership rate back to a level near where it started dropping as interest rates increased. The rate reached a cycle low... Read More ›...(read more)

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EU's Tusk says Brexit delay to January 31 'may be the last one'

The outgoing European Union chairman, Donald Tusk, said on Tuesday the bloc formally approved delaying Brexit to the end of January, 2020....(read more)

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HVS: Q3 2019 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q3 2019. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.  However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey. This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. he Census Bureau is investigating the differences between the HVS, ACS and decennial Census, and analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply or household......(read more)

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GDP, Jobs Hold Clues to Fed's Next Phase After Likely Third Cut

GDP, Jobs Hold Clues to Fed's Next Phase After Likely Third Cut    Bloomberg...(read more)

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US consumer confidence for October comes in at 125.9, vs 128 expected

US consumer confidence for October comes in at 125.9, vs 128 expected<br/>https://ift.tt/36flnVyread more)

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Brexit election nears as UK opposition backs early poll

Britain was heading toward a December election on Tuesday after Prime Minister Boris Johnson's bet on breaking the Brexit deadlock with an early vote gained support from opposition parties....(read more)

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Fed to cut rates again, but other economic concerns are emerging ahead of election: CNBC Fed Survey

The latest CNBC Fed Survey finds concerns over recession, monetary policy and worries about the economic policies of both President Trump and Democratic contenders....(read more)

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Trump administration eases risks for banks on false lending claims

The Trump administration said on Monday it would try to entice banks to offer more mortgages to low-income borrowers by reducing reliance on a Civil War-era law the Obama administration used in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis to build bad-lending cases against big banks....(read more)

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S&P 500 hits all-time high on trade optimism, rate cut hopes

Technology stocks propelled the benchmark S&P 500 index to an all-time high, while the Nasdaq hovered below its record level, as a possible U.S.-China trade deal and rising bets on a third rate cut by the Federal Reserve fueled optimism....(read more)

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Goldman Sachs has a new model to track recessions and it sees a less than 25% chance of one soon

Goldman Sachs believes other forecasters are getting it wrong so it created it's own new recession model....(read more)

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Dallas Fed: "Pace of Texas Manufacturing Expansion Slows"

From the Dallas Fed: Pace of Texas Manufacturing Expansion Slows, but Outlook Improves Texas factory activity continued to expand in October, albeit at a markedly slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell nine points to 4.5, suggesting a moderation in output growth in October. Other measures of manufacturing activity also suggested slower expansion in October, and demand declined. The new orders index turned negative for the first time in three years, falling......(read more)

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U.S. goods trade deficit falls in September, inventories mixed

The U.S. goods trade deficit fell in September as trade tensions restricted the flow of goods, but that will probably not change expectations of a further deceleration in economic growth in the third quarter....(read more)

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Chicago Fed "Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in September"

From the Chicago Fed: Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in September Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.45 in September from +0.15 in August. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from August, and all four categories made negative contributions to the index in September. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.24 in September from –0.06 in August. emphasis added This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving......(read more)

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Shares near two-month highs on hopes of trade deal, Fed cut

World shares steadied near two-month highs on Monday, boosted by hopes for a trade deal and strong U.S. corporate earnings, while the dollar traded near its highest in a week before a Federal Reserve rate decision....(read more)

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UK PM Johnson will respond to EU extension offer after reviewing details: spokesman

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will respond to the European Union's offer of a three-month flexible delay to Britain's departure from the bloc once he has reviewed the details, his spokesman said on Monday....(read more)

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What's In (and Not In) Step One of the U.S.-China Trade Deal

What's In (and Not In) Step One of the U.S.-China Trade Deal    Bloomberg...(read more)

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Burned in 2008, Americans Are Refusing to Tap Their Home Equity

Burned in 2008, Americans Are Refusing to Tap Their Home Equity    Bloomberg...(read more)

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Campaign for new Brexit referendum in disarray after officials sacked

The campaign in Britain for a new Brexit referendum has lurched into fresh crisis after two of the most senior figures in the movement were forced out in a power struggle....(read more)

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EU nations agree Brexit delay until Jan. 31 as PM Johnson seeks election

The European Union on Monday agreed a 3-month flexible delay to Britain's departure from the bloc as Prime Minister Boris Johnson pushes for an election after opponents forced him to request an extension he had vowed never to ask for....(read more)

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Federal deficit increases 26% to $984 billion for fiscal 2019

The U.S. Treasury said that the federal deficit for 2019 was $984 billion, a 26% increase from 2018 but short of the $1 trillion mark....(read more)

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My Slide Deck: "2020 Economic Forecast featuring the UCI Paul Merage School of Business"

On Wednesday, I spoke at the Newport Chamber of Commerce 2020 Economist Forecast. It was sold out - thanks to all who attended (parking was a problem). Here is most of the slide deck I presented . I discussed the two most frequent questions I'm asked: Are house prices in a new bubble? And will there be a recession in the next 12 months. I also discussed some commercial real estate sectors (but I was limited to 20 minutes). The short answers are: House prices might be a little elevated based on fundamentals, but there is very little speculation - and there is no Bubble 2.0. And on a recession: ......(read more)

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Fed Seen Cutting Rates Next Week and Then Hitting Pause Button

Fed Seen Cutting Rates Next Week and Then Hitting Pause Button    Bloomberg...(read more)

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Q3 GDP Forecasts: Under 2.0%

The advance estimate for Q3 GDP will be released on Wednesday, October 30th. The consensus is real annualized GDP increased 1.6% in Q3. From Merrill Lynch: We expect the advance 3Q GDP report to reveal moderation in growth to 1.5% qoq saar from 2.0% in 2Q. [Oct 25 estimate] emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: we left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.6% (qoq ar). [October 24 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.9% for 2019:Q3 and 0.9% for 2019:Q4. [Oct 25 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real......(read more)

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Fed's Easing Break, German Optimism, Draghi's Exit: Eco Day

Fed's Easing Break, German Optimism, Draghi's Exit: Eco Day    Bloomberg...(read more)

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U.S. says close to finalizing parts of U.S.-China trade deal: CNBC

The United States and China are closing to finalizing some sections of a trade agreement after a phone call between top negotiators, CNBC reported on Friday, citing a statement from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative....(read more)

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