Q1 GDP Forecasts: Starting Low

From Merrill Lynch: Following 4Q GDP, we revise down 1Q 2019 growth to 1.0% from 1.5%. The revision largely reflects greater drag from inventories, with some adjustments to other components [Mar 1 estimate] emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report . The Q1 2019 nowcast is for 0.9% real GDP growth (Mar 1 estimate). And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 0.3 percent on March 1. [Mar 1 estimate] CR Note: These very early estimates suggest GDP around 1% in Q1....(read more)

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