Q1 GDP Forecasts: Mid 1% Range

From Merrill Lynch: Consumer spending inched up only 0.1% mom in Jan, and a downwardly revised Dec provided a weaker handoff into the quarter. The data sliced 0.3pp from 1Q GDP tracking , bringing our estimate down to 1.7% qoq saar [March 29 estimate] emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.3% for 2019:Q1 and 1.6% for 2019:Q2 [Mar 29 estimate]. And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 1.7 percent on March 29 , up from 1.5 percent on March......(read more)

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