Merrill: The Impact of Harvey on August Retail Sales

A few excerpts from a note by Merrill Lynch economists: A net drag from Harvey in August Retail sales ex-autos, as measured by BAC aggregated credit and debit card data, declined 0.1% mom seasonally adjusted in August. After controlling for the increase in gasoline spending, retail sales ex-autos and gasoline declined 0.4%. ... Bottom line: the weakness in retail sales in August is likely exaggerated by the hurricane and July prime-day. While Hurricane Irma may depress spending in September, we typically see retail sales bounce back after a natural disaster, suggesting upside into 4Q. CR......(read more)

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