Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 36% Annual Rate Decline

Important: GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). So a 36% Q2 decline is around 10% decline from Q1 (SA). Note: I'm just trying to make it clear the economy didn't decline by one-third in Q2.  Previously I just divided by 4 (an approximation) to show the quarter to quarter decline.  The actually formula is (1-.36) ^ .25 - 1 = -0.095 (a 9.5% decline from Q1) From Merrill Lynch: 2Q GDP tracking remains at -36.0% qoq saar . [July 10 estimate] emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: We left our Q2 GDP forecast unchanged at -33% (qoq ar) . We expect -29% in the......(read more)

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