Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 35% Annual Rate Decline

Important: GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). So a 35% Q2 decline is around 10% decline from Q1 (SA). Note: I'm just trying to make it clear the economy didn't decline by one-third in Q2.  Previously I just divided by 4 (an approximation) to show the quarter to quarter decline.  The actually formula is (1-.35) ^ .25 - 1 = -0.102 (a 10.2% decline from Q1) From Merrill Lynch: 2Q GDP tracking was unchanged at -36% qoq saar as the June surprise in retail sales was offset by negative May revisions. [July 17 estimate] emphasis added From Goldman Sachs:......(read more)

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