Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 33% Annual Rate Decline

Important: GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). So a 33% Q2 decline is around 8% decline from Q1 (SA). From Merrill Lynch: We revise up 2Q GDP to -35% qoq saar from -40% and 3Q to 20% from 7%, given the faster and more successful reopening. [June 18 estimate] emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: We have adjusted our real GDP growth forecasts and now expect -33% in Q2 , +33% in Q3, and +8% in Q4 (vs. -36%, +29%, and +11% previously) in qoq annualized terms. [June 18 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at -19.0% for 2020:Q2 and ......(read more)

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