Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 40% Annual Rate Decline

Important: GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). So a 40% Q2 decline is around 9% decline from Q1 (SA). From Merrill Lynch: We are tracking 2Q GDP at -40% qoq saar , down from -30% earlier. [SAAR May 22 estimate] emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: We left our Q2 GDP forecast unchanged at -39% (qoq ar) but raised our estimate of the initial vintage by 0.3pp to -31.5% (released on July 30th). [May 22 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at -30.5% for 2020:Q2 . [May 22 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model......(read more)

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