Friday, May 29, 2020

April Personal Income Up 10.5% Due to CARES

The most recent data release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that personal income surged in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $20,674 billion. The 10.5% increase in personal income was largely the effects of Federal Pandemic Response Programs. Among the $360.5 billion increase in unemployment insurance, there were $132.0 billion in Pandemic Unemployment Compensation... Read More ›...(read more)
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Powell says the Fed is 'days away' from making the first loans in the Main Street lending facility

Powell says the Fed is 'days away' from making the first loans in the Main Street lending facility<br/>https://ift.tt/3gzULnmread more)
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Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments

In the Personal Income & Outlays report for April, the BEA noted that "Personal income increased $1.97 trillion (10.5 percent) in April". This was due to a large increase in transfer payment. Transfer payments increased by $3 trillion in April. Unemployment insurance increased from $70 billion in March, to $430 billion in April. And "Other" (mostly the CARES Act) increased by $2,600 billion in April. Without the increase in transfer payments, Personal Income in April would have declined by about  6%. A key measure of the health of the economy (Used by NBER in recession dating ......(read more)
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Most Vulnerable Housing Markets

The analysis of the American Community Survey (ACS) suggests that renters and young adults under the age of 34 are likely to face higher prolonged unemployment risks as a result of the coronavirus pandemic hitting the labor market. The labor market risks are also uneven across states, with state economies heavily reliant on leisure, entertainment, retail and personal services being... Read More ›...(read more)
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Personal Income increased 10.5% in April, Spending decreased 13.6%, Core PCE decreased 0.4%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for April: Personal income increased $1.97 trillion (10.5 percent) in April according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $2.13 trillion (12.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $1.89 trillion (13.6 percent) . Real DPI increased 13.4 percent in April and Real PCE decreased 13.2 percent. The PCE price index decreased 0.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index decreased 0.4 percent. The April PCE price index increased 0.5......(read more)
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With 'Main Street' in view, Fed weighs risks of job, productivity shocks

U.S. Federal Reserve officials have talked broadly about helping households and firms through the current economic crisis and quickly unleashed trillions of dollars in cash and credit guarantees to build a "bridge" to the post-pandemic world....(read more)
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Corporations raise $1 trillion in the bond market after Fed backstop, double the pace of last year

Corporations have already raised more than $1 trillion as they race to replace other debt cheaper and raise cash to weather the recession....(read more)
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Thursday, May 28, 2020

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 50.2% Year-over-year, Slight Increase Week-over-week

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 23 May STR data ending with 23 May showed another small rise from previous weeks in U.S. hotel performance. Year-over-year declines remained significant although not as severe as the levels recorded in April. 17-23 May 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019): • Occupancy: 35.4% (-50.2%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$80.92 (-39.7%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$28.67 (-69.9%) "The steady climb in national occupancy continued, and to no surprise, the highest levels were recorded on Friday and Saturday ahead......(read more)
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Miami Real Estate: What it's like Buying a Home During COVID-19

In the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic, the US housing market has experienced increased volatility, and the real estate industry has responded quickly to the abrupt changes by adjusting processes to fit the "new normal" for the time being. Nationwide, the industry has shifted in order to continue doing business and to implement all the … Miami Real Estate: What it's like Buying a Home During COVID-19 Read More » The post Miami Real Estate: What it's like Buying a Home During COVID-19 appeared first on Redfin | Real Estate Tips for Home Buying, Selling & More ....(read more)
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Updated COVID-Related Underwriting Guidance from Freddie

This Bulletin provides: Temporary requirements and guidance for Borrowers with qualifying income derived from self-employment Temporary flexibilities for CHOICERenovation℠ Mortgages Delivery requirements for "no cash-out" refinance Mortgages Temporary eligibility requirements related to the purchase of delinquent Mortgages in forbearance...(read more)
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Small-business loan terms eased under U.S. House-passed bill

The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday approved legislation increasing the amount of time, to 24 weeks from the current eight weeks, for small businesses to use Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans spurred by the coronavirus outbreak....(read more)
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Fed's Kaplan says U.S. economy has bottomed, ties rebound to testing

The U.S. economy has likely bottomed, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan said on Thursday, but a healthy rebound depends on a massive increase in testing so that people feel comfortable resuming traveling, dining out and other pre-crisis activities....(read more)
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NY Fed President Williams says U.S. is not 'anywhere near' its limits to run up debt

Even with the federal IOU at $25.6 trillion and counting, the central bank official said there's still plenty of room to spend more....(read more)
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Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate increased in April

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in April was 0.64%, up from 0.60% in March. Freddie's rate is down from 0.65% in April 2019. This is the highest serious delinquency rate since last April. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  Click on graph for larger image With COVID-19, this rate will increase significantly in a few months (it takes time since these are mortgage three months or more past due). Note: Fannie Mae will......(read more)
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Millionaires cut spending, postpone big purchases for at least a year

A majority of American millionaires say they plan to spend less this summer than in years past, according to the Q2 CNBC Millionaire Survey. Real estate, new cars and vacations are the expenses they are most likely to put on hold....(read more)
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S&P 500 drifts higher on healthcare, tech lift

Wall Street's major indexes rose on Thursday, boosted by gains in healthcare and technology stocks, as investors hoped for a swift economic recovery from a coronavirus-driven economic slump....(read more)
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Expanded unemployment benefits for self-employed reach 8 million workers

Expanded unemployment benefits offered through the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program are reaching nearly 8 million Americans, about 25% of all recipients....(read more)
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Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Continued to Decline" in May

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Continued to Decline Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to decline, but not as sharply compared to last month's record low. Expectations for future activity rose, but remained slightly negative. Month-over-month price indexes remained negative again in May. Moving forward, District firms expected prices for finished goods to decline and prices for raw materials to increase in the next six months. The month-over-month composite index was -19 in May, up somewhat from the record low of -30 in April , and similar to -17......(read more)
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Pending home sales plummet in April, but demand is showing signs of a rebound

April pending home sales see the largest drop in the survey's history, but Realtors are actually upgrading their 2020 forecast....(read more)
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Debt balances rise as the debate over extending student loan forgiveness continues in Congress

As the debate over extending student loan forgiveness continues in Congress, this year's crop of high school graduates are taking on more college debt....(read more)
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Q1 GDP Revised Down to -5.0% Annual Rate

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2020 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, 1st Quarter 2020 (Preliminary Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the first quarter of 2020 , according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the decrease in real GDP was 4.8 percent. With the second......(read more)
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Weekly jobless claims total 2.123 million, vs 2.05 million estimate

First-time claims for unemployment benefits were expected to total 2.05 million last week, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones....(read more)
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U.S. states, cities may snub Fed lending program over high rates

High borrowing costs will limit participation in a $500 billion U.S. Federal Reserve short-term borrowing program set up to address state and city revenue shortfalls due to the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak, analysts said....(read more)
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If the Fed opts for negative rates, it will need to be a 'Hail Mary,' Standard Chartered says

Should the U.S. Federal Reserve opt to take its benchmark funds rate into negative territory, it will need to "go deeply negative" with a cut of between 50-100 basis points below zero, according to Standard Chartered Bank....(read more)
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Forget About Recessionary Real Estate Bargains: Home Prices Are Still Rising

Those hoping the coronavirus-fueled recession will bring another round of bargain-basement home prices are likely out of luck. The post Forget About Recessionary Real Estate Bargains: Home Prices Are Still Rising appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)
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Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Here's what happened to the stock market on Wednesday

Bets on the economy reopening mounted once again, lifting stocks that benefit from it....(read more)
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Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity declined in all Districts – falling sharply in most"

Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City based on information collected on or before May 18, 2020." Economic activity declined in all Districts – falling sharply in most – reflecting disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic . Consumer spending fell further as mandated closures of retail establishments remained largely in place during most of the survey period. Declines were especially severe in the leisure and hospitality sector, with very little activity at travel and tourism businesses. Auto sales were substantially lower than a year......(read more)
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High-End Apartment Owners Dodge Economic Slump

For now, the many big apartment owners whose tenants have average household incomes exceeding $100,000 a year are doing fine. Some of those owners are looking to raise rents. The post High-End Apartment Owners Dodge Economic Slump appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)
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Euro, stocks retreat from rally on EU stimulus plan

The euro retreated from near two-month highs and equity markets wavered on Wednesday even as the European Union unveiled a 750 billion euro ($823 billion) recovery fund that helped offset concerns about unrest in Hong Kong over Beijing's proposed security laws....(read more)
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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Decreased in All States in April

From the Philly Fed : The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for April 2020. Over the past three months, the indexes decreased in all 50 states, for a three-month diffusion index of -100 . Additionally, in the past month, the indexes decreased in all 50 states, for a one-month diffusion index of -100. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed's U.S. index fell 13.7 percent over the past three months and 12.0 percent in April. emphasis......(read more)
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Census: Household Pulse Survey shows 48.5% of Households lost Income

From the Census Bureau: Measuring Household Experiences during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic The U.S. Census Bureau, in collaboration with five federal agencies, is in a unique position to produce data on the social and economic effects of COVID-19 on American households. The Household Pulse Survey is designed to deploy quickly and efficiently, collecting data to measure household experiences during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Data will be disseminated in near real-time to inform federal and state response and recovery planning. … Data collection for the Household Pulse Survey......(read more)
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Richmond Fed: "Fifth District manufacturing remained soft in May"

From the Richmond Fed: Fifth District manufacturing remained soft in May Fifth District manufacturing remained soft in May, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index rose from a record low of -53 in April to -27 in May, remaining at its lowest level since 2009 . All three components - shipments, new orders and employment - were above their April readings but still in contractionary territory. The index for local business conditions was also negative, but contacts expected conditions to improve in the next six months. Many survey participants reported......(read more)
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Significant Regional Employment Losses in April

Year-over-year (YoY), total nonfarm employment fell by 19.4 million jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis (SA), or -12.9% from April 2019 to April 2020. During this time, total nonfarm employment decreased across all the regions.  The Northeast declined by 18.2%, the Midwest by 14.5%, the Western region by 12.6% and the South by 10.7%. According to the Bureau of Labor... Read More ›...(read more)
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U.S. mortgage applications rise for sixth straight week

U.S. applications for home mortgages jumped last week, in a sixth straight weekly increase, suggesting the housing market could lead the economy's recovery from the novel coronavirus crisis even as high unemployment is expected to linger....(read more)
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Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Stimulus will add to high debt levels but alternative is 'much worse,' ECB vice president says

The vice president of the European Central Bank (ECB) has backed the unprecedented stimulus packages launched in the region, saying there were no alternatives for lawmakers....(read more)
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S&P 500 clears 3,000 barrier on hopes of recovery, vaccine

?U.S. stocks jumped and the S&P 500 crossed 3,000 points on Tuesday as optimism about a potential coronavirus vaccine and a revival in business activity helped investors overlook simmering Sino-U.S. tensions....(read more)
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Dallas Fed: "Contraction Continues in Texas Manufacturing Sector"

From the Dallas Fed: Contraction Continues in Texas Manufacturing Sector, Though Severity Eases Texas factory activity declined again in May, though at a slower pace than in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, remained negative but improved from -55.6 to -28.0, suggesting the contraction in output has eased somewhat since last month. Other measures of manufacturing activity pointed to a less-severe decline in May. The new orders index advanced 38 points to -30.6,......(read more)
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Consumer confidence for May rises to 86.6, vs 82.3 expected

Consumer confidence for May rises to 86.6, vs 82.3 expected<br/>https://ift.tt/2zxR80fread more)
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Related Chairman Stephen Ross: Expect a 'flood' of retail bankruptcies because of the pandemic

"You are going to have such a flood of cases going to the bankruptcy court," mall owner Related Companies founder and chairman Stephen Ross told CNBC....(read more)
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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.4% year-over-year in March

Note: This is for March and is mostly pre-crisis data. S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March ("March" is a 3 month average of January, February and March prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs. From S&P: Annual Home Price Gains Increased to 4.4% in March According to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S.......(read more)
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"Chicago Fed National Activity Index suggests economic growth fell substantially in April"

From the Chicago Fed: Chicago Fed National Activity Index suggests economic growth fell substantially in April Led by declines in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –16.74 in April from –4.97 in March. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in April, and all four categories decreased from March. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –7.22 in April from –1.69 in March . Following a period of economic expansion, an increasing likelihood of a......(read more)
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U.S. small firms leave $150 billion in coronavirus stimulus untapped

When the U.S. government first rolled out forgivable loans to small businesses in early April under the Paycheck Protection Program, loan officers at Bank of the West in Grapevine, Texas worked nights and weekends to process a tsunami of applications....(read more)
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NYSE to reopen trading floor closed by coronavirus

The New York Stock Exchange will partially reopen the trading floors at its iconic 11 Wall Street building on Tuesday for the first time since March 20 when the bourse was forced to go all-electronic due to the coronavirus pandemic....(read more)
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Friday, May 22, 2020

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 40% Annual Rate Decline

Important: GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). So a 40% Q2 decline is around 9% decline from Q1 (SA). From Merrill Lynch: We are tracking 2Q GDP at -40% qoq saar , down from -30% earlier. [SAAR May 22 estimate] emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: We left our Q2 GDP forecast unchanged at -39% (qoq ar) but raised our estimate of the initial vintage by 0.3pp to -31.5% (released on July 30th). [May 22 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at -30.5% for 2020:Q2 . [May 22 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model......(read more)
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At first, some mortgage bailout recipients didn't need it, but now more do

As of this week, 4.75 million homeowners are in government or private sector mortgage forbearance programs, according to Black Knight. That is 9% of all mortgages outstanding. New analysis, however, shows a large share of these borrowers initially didn't need the bailout, but now more do....(read more)
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NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Finds 90.8 Percent Paid Rent as of May 20th

From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 90.8 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of May 20 he National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)'s Rent Payment Tracker found 90.8 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by May 20 in its survey of 11.4 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country. This is a 2.2-percentage point decrease in the share who paid rent through May 20, 2019 and compares to 89.2 percent that had paid by April 20, 2020 . These data encompass a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the......(read more)
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BLS: April jobless rates up in all 50 states; 43 States at New Record Highs

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were higher in April in all 50 states and the District of Columbia , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Similarly, all 50 states and the District had jobless rate increases from a year earlier. The national unemployment rate rose by 10.3 percentage points over the month to 14.7 percent and was 11.1 points higher than in April 2019. ... Nevada had the highest unemployment rate in April, 28.2 percent , followed by Michigan, 22.7 percent, and Hawaii, 22.3 percent. The rates in 43 states set......(read more)
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Dr. Fauci is still confident U.S. could have a coronavirus vaccine by December

Researchers are accelerating development of vaccine candidates by simultaneously investing in multiple stages of development that could prove to be useless if the vaccine ends up not being effective or safe, Fauci said....(read more)
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New Single-Family Home Size Declines Ending?

New single-family home size has trended lower over the last four years as builders sought to add additional entry-level supply to an inventory-starved housing market. However, the coronavirus and the recession of 2020 potentially reset those trends, as evidence grows that households will seek more space for home offices, home gyms, and other purposes. According to first quarter 2020 data... Read More ›...(read more)
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Banks will struggle to generate profits even as the global economy recovers, IMF says

The beaten-down banking sector will remain under pressure through 2025 even as the economy recovers, the International Monetary Fund said Friday....(read more)
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