Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around -7% SAAR

Note: The NY Fed Nowcast and Atlanta Fed GDPNow models are based on released data and aren't capturing the collapse in the economy in the 2nd half of March . All forecasts, including the Merrill Lynch and other forecasts, are for the seasonally adjust annual rate (SAAR) of decline. From Merrill Lynch: We are tracking a 7% decline in 1Q . [SAAR Apr 17 estimate] emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at -0.4% for 2020:Q1 and -7.9% for 2020:Q2. [Apr 17 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth......(read more)

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