Going on Recession Watch

I'm not forecasting a recession , just moving to Recession Watch for the first time since 2006.  Note: In early 2007, I moved from Recession Watch to forecasting a recession that started in December 2007. As I noted in Predicting the Next Recession , the usual leading indicators are not useful if there is "a pandemic, significant military conflict, disruption of energy supplies for any reason, a major natural disaster (meteor strike, super volcano, etc), and a number of other low probability reasons". The reason I'm moving to Recession Watch now is a combination of the COVID-19......(read more)

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