From Merrill: Flirting with Recession

A few excerpts from Merrill Lynch research: The economy will flirt with recession in the coming months with negative GDP in 2Q, we believe. Growth is expected to remain soft in 3Q with recovery starting thereafter. … We now expect the Fed to cut 100bp at the March FOMC meeting , bringing rates to zero. … Based on BAC aggregated card data, we estimate that retail sales ex-autos contracted by 0.2% month-over-month (mom) seasonally adjusted in February. At first glance, it seems pretty good, all things considered. However, remember that the retail sales aggregate is not a comprehensive measure......(read more)

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