Powell will try not to draw ire of Trump or rock markets after Fed meeting Wednesday

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will try to not to upset markets or the White House when he speaks Wednesday....(read more)

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U.S.-China trade talks will likely conclude in next two weeks: Mulvaney

Talks between the United States and China aimed at resolving their trade dispute will likely be resolved "one way or the other" in the next two weeks, White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney said on Tuesday....(read more)

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Trump And Democrats Agree On $2 Trillion For Infrastructure, But Not On How To Pay

Democratic congressional leaders called the White House meeting "very constructive," but the big question remains unanswered. The parties will reconvene in a few weeks to discuss funding options....(read more)

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Is Buying A House Overrated?

The Nobel laureate who co-created the way our nation measures home prices says that over the long run, they don't increase much. And when they do, it can mean a bubble. Are we in one now?...(read more)

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CFPB issues update to Prepaid Rule Small Entity Compliance Guide

Last week, the CFPB released its most recent update to the Prepaid Rule Small Entity Compliance Guide.  The new version includes expanded information regarding the process for complying with the Prepaid Rule's requirement to submit prepaid account agreements and certain other information to the CFPB. Under the Prepaid Rule, prepaid issuers must make submissions to... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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A Firsthand Look at Redfin's Technology for Real Estate Agents

See how Redfin technology helps Redfin agents work smarter, delight clients and close more deals The post A Firsthand Look at Redfin's Technology for Real Estate Agents appeared first on Redfin Real-Time ....(read more)

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Pending home sales jumped 3.8% in March, thanks to a big dip in mortgage rates

Home shoppers signed 3.8% more contracts to buy existing homes in March compared with February, according to the National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index. That was higher than analysts had expected. Sales were 1.2% lower compared with March 2018, the 15th straight month of annual declines....(read more)

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U.S. Upper Midwest factory growth rebounds in April

A gauge of manufacturing activity in the U.S. Upper Midwest rose in April, bolstered by increases in stronger production and hiring activities, according to a private-sector survey released on Tuesday....(read more)

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Home prices continued to grow at a slower rate in February: S&P Case-Shiller

Home prices have been gaining since 2012, but in the past year those gains have been shrinking, due to higher mortgage rates and a general overheating of home values in most metropolitan markets, which hurt sales....(read more)

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New York Officials Are Still Reaping Millions From Predatory Lenders

New York Officials Are Still Reaping Millions From Predatory Lenders    Bloomberg The good times continue to roll for two New York City marshals whose work collecting debts for predatory lenders is making them millionaires....(read more)

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The Fed Has a Problem With Its Approach to Inflation Targeting

The Fed Has a Problem With Its Approach to Inflation Targeting    Bloomberg There's a flaw at the heart of central banking's approach to inflation targeting that's become a hot issue for the Federal Reserve as it takes a long, hard look at its ......(read more)

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Strong U.S. growth, weak inflation leave Fed stuck happily on hold

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at its policy meeting this week as policymakers balance recent stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth against sluggish inflation....(read more)

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The Fed is looking at a new program that could be another version of 'quantitative easing'

Federal Reserve officials are considering a new program that would decrease the balance sheet level while providing liquidity during difficult times....(read more)

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Global stocks climb as S&P 500 hits record, oil rises after selloff

A jump in U.S. consumer spending pushed U.S. shares to an intraday record on Monday and global equities edged higher, offsetting a weak euro zone sentiment survey and political uncertainty over Spain's elections....(read more)

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San Francisco Bay Area home prices fall for the first time in 7 years

Not since the bottom of the last housing crash have homes in the San Francisco Bay Area lost value. But prices follow sales, and sales have been running extraordinarily low since last summer, when mortgage rates spiked....(read more)

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Q1 2019 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

The BEA has released the underlying details for the Q1 initial GDP report. The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 0.8% annual pace in Q1. Investment in petroleum and natural gas exploration was mostly unchanged in Q1 compared to Q4, but has increased substantially over the last two years. Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. Investment in offices increased in Q1, and is up 7% year-over-year. Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007......(read more)

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In Charleston, 24% of Homes Are Affordable on a Teacher's Salary, Down From More Than 50% Five Years Ago

We've taken a look at how housing affordability has changed for teachers in several South Carolina metro areas over the years as the group prepares to go on strike to demand higher wages. The post In Charleston, 24% of Homes Are Affordable on a Teacher's Salary, Down From More Than 50% Five Years Ago appeared first on Redfin Real-Time ....(read more)

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Dallas Fed: "Growth in Texas Manufacturing Activity Picks Up Slightly"

From the Dallas Fed: Growth in Texas Manufacturing Activity Picks Up Slightly Texas factory activity continued to expand in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, ticked up two points to 12.4, indicating output growth accelerated slightly from March. Other measures of manufacturing activity also suggested slightly faster expansion in April. The survey's demand indicators bounced back after dipping last month: The new orders index rose eight points to 9.8, and the......(read more)

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How Tariffs and Tariff Announcements are Affecting Building Materials Imports from China

In July 2018, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced its intention to levy tariffs on a series of imports from China. USTR rolled out proposed tariffs in three waves, with the third list (List 3) covering approximately $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. The List 3 goods comprises 5745 items, approximately 450 of which are commonly used in the... Read More ›...(read more)

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Core personal consumption expenditures index unchanged in March, vs 1.7% increase expected

Core personal consumption expenditures index unchanged in March, vs 1.7% increase expected<br/>https://cnb.cx/2IZTU0Iread more)

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The Fed Might Have Drawn Markets Into a 'Dove Trap'

The Fed Might Have Drawn Markets Into a 'Dove Trap'    Bloomberg Three scenarios show how bets on interest rates staying the same or even being cut this year can easily turn bad....(read more)

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Trump advisor Kevin Hassett says 3.2% GDP growth 'absolutely' sustainable this year, could even go higher

"This is really blockbuster news and suggests that the risks on the upside are very high for GDP this year," says Kevin Hassett, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers....(read more)

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Q1 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2019

At the end of last year, I posted Ten Economic Questions for 2019 . I followed up with a brief post on each question. The goal was to provide an overview of what I expected in 2019 (I don't have a crystal ball, but I think it helps to outline what I think will happen - and understand - and change my mind, when the outlook is wrong). By request, here is a quick Q1 review (it is very early in the year). I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a few comments: 10) Question #10 for 2019: Will housing inventory increase or decrease in 2019? "I expect to see......(read more)

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Treasury Yields Sink as Tepid Inflation Keeps Fed-Cut Bets Alive

Treasury Yields Sink as Tepid Inflation Keeps Fed-Cut Bets Alive    Bloomberg Treasury yields tumbled as traders ramped up wagers that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year despite solid U.S. growth, as inflation shows sign ......(read more)

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U.S. Consumer Sentiment Fell Less Than First Reported in April

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Fell Less Than First Reported in April    Bloomberg U.S. consumer sentiment fell less than initially reported in April and was slightly above estimates on upbeat personal-finance expectations and buying conditions ......(read more)

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Housing Affordability Reducing Housing Share of GDP

With the release of the first estimate of first quarter 2019 GDP growth (3.2% growth rate), housing's share of gross domestic product (GDP) continued a downward trend, more evidence of the the lack of housing supply caused and affected by ongoing housing affordability issues. Housing’s share of GDP fell to 14.7%. The home building and remodeling component – residential fixed... Read More ›...(read more)

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HUD Extends Effective Date of New Requirements for Down Payment Assistance Provided by Government Entities

As previously reported, on April 18, 2019 the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued Mortgagee Letter 2019-06 setting forth new documentation requirements for down payment assistance provided by government entities to be used in connection with Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans. The requirements were effective for case numbers assigned on or after... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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US first-quarter GDP rose 3.2%, vs 2.5% growth expected

US first-quarter GDP rose 3.2%, vs 2.5% growth expected<br/>https://cnb.cx/2voRPDuread more)

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Central Ohio Home Sellers Make Less Than Average on Sales

Central Ohio Home Sellers Make Less Than Average on Sales...(read more)

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Economists See Fed on Hold Through 2020 With No Rate Cut: Survey

Economists See Fed on Hold Through 2020 With No Rate Cut: Survey    Bloomberg The Federal Reserve won't ease interest rates if core inflation softens, according to a new Bloomberg survey of economists, contradicting investors who expect ......(read more)

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Global Central Banks Nervous About Tightening Monetary Policy

Global Central Banks Nervous About Tightening Monetary Policy    Bloomberg Three months since the Federal Reserve put U.S. interest rates on a prolonged pause, more and more central bankers around the world are getting nervous ......(read more)

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Merrill April Employment Report Forecast: 250K, 3.7%

A few brief excerpts from a Merrill Lynch research note: We look for nonfarm payroll employment growth of 250k in the April Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment report, to be released on May 3rd. … we think the strong job growth should put further downward pressure on the unemployment rate and look for it to decline to 3.7% from 3.8%. … we look for wage growth to return back to the recent trend and forecast that average hourly earnings growth of 0.3% mom...(read more)

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Morgan Stanley to pay $150 million to settle California mortgage securities charges

Morgan Stanley will pay $150 million to settle charges it concealed the risk of mortgage-backed securities that were sold to two large California pension funds, the state's attorney general Xavier Becerra announced on Thursday....(read more)

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Homeownership Rate Dips to 64.2%

According to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS), the U.S. homeownership rate declined to 64.2% in the first quarter of 2019, which is 0.6 percentage points lower than the last quarter reading of 64.8%. However, it is virtually unchanged from the first quarter of 2018. The rate of homeownership is still on an upward trend after dropping to a... Read More ›...(read more)

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Corporate profits and U.S. economy chug along, defying recession fears

After months of handwringing about the possible crash-landing of the housing market, investors awaiting quarterly earnings from No. 3 U.S. homebuilder PulteGroup Inc this week were ready for the worst....(read more)

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Homebuilder Horton avoids 2019 margin forecast, raises cost worries

D.R. Horton Inc forecast 2019 revenue below Wall Street estimates and did not provide an outlook on gross margin for the year, spooking investors who have been worried about the impact of rising costs on future profits....(read more)

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Where U.S. Millennials Are Moving to Most

Where U.S. Millennials Are Moving to Most    Bloomberg Younger Americans voting with their feet are most heavily favoring moves to New Haven-Milford, Connecticut and Madison, Wisconsin, according to the National ......(read more)

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Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Grew More Modestly"

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Grew More Modestly The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the April Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity grew more modestly, but expectations for future activity remained generally solid. "Regional factory growth in April was a bit weaker than in March, but similar to previous months," said Wilkerson. "About a third of firms noted that flooding and extreme weather......(read more)

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HVS: Q1 2019 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q1 2019. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.  However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey. This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers.  The Census Bureau is investigating the differences between the HVS, ACS and decennial Census, and analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant......(read more)

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increased to 230,000

The DOL reported : In the week ending April 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 230,00 0, an increase of 37,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 192,000 to 193,000. The 4-week moving average was 206,000, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 201,250 to 201,500. emphasis added The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image.......(read more)

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Bonds Can't Seem to Shake That Sinking Feeling

Bonds Can't Seem to Shake That Sinking Feeling    Bloomberg It's been a rough few weeks for the global government bond market. Yields as measured by the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Treasuries Index have ......(read more)

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Fed done raising rates; cut by end-2020 growing more likely: Reuters poll

The U.S. Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates until at least the end of next year, while about a third of economists polled by Reuters who had a view that far out predicted at least one rate cut by then....(read more)

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D.R. Horton 2019 home sales forecast largely below estimates

D.R. Horton Inc on Thursday forecast full-year home sales, the mid-point of which was below Wall Street expectations....(read more)

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FHA-Backed Mortgages Finance Increasing Share of New Home Sales

NAHB analysis of the most recent Quarterly Sales by Price and Financing published by the U.S. Census Bureau reveals that conventional loans accounted for 71.3% of new home sales in the first quarter of 2019, a 3.3-percentage point decrease from Q4 2018 (revised). The decline comes despite lower mortgage rates, continuing a post-2012 pattern in which higher average rates have... Read More ›...(read more)

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Mortgage Traders Breathe Easier as the Risk of a Refinancing Wave Ebbs

Mortgage Traders Breathe Easier as the Risk of a Refinancing Wave Ebbs    Bloomberg Mortgage investors are breathing a sigh of relief amid signs a potential surge in prepayments set to weigh on returns may be avoided....(read more)

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Conventional Mortgages Outpace Government Mortgages for Purchase

The latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's Weekly Application Survey for the week ending on April 19 show a decrease in purchasing and refinancing activities, with refinancing decreasing for the third consecutive week. On a seasonally adjusted basis, refinancing activity decreased by 11%. March showed a strong rally in purchasing activity, evidenced by the decrease in rates and increase... Read More ›...(read more)

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Short Term Rentals Spark Lawsuit in Bend Ore.

Short Term Rentals Spark Lawsuit in Bend Ore....(read more)

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Trump's Fed pick Moore in trouble again, once called Cincinnati and Cleveland 'armpits of America'

President Donald Trump's pick to a fill a vacancy at the Federal Reserve has run into more trouble thanks to remarks he made in the past....(read more)

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Fannie and Freddie's Uncertain Future, Explained

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac back about half of new mortgages in the U.S. Now, talks suggest reshaping or shrinking the two companies. The post Fannie and Freddie's Uncertain Future, Explained appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 37 states in March

From the Philly Fed : The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for March 2019. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 44 states, decreased in five states, and remained stable in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 78. In the past month, the indexes increased in 37 states , decreased in eight states, and remained stable in five, for a one-month diffusion index of 58. emphasis added Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed: The coincident indexes combine ......(read more)

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