Fed policymakers do not want rate cuts, not even the doves

Barely a week after the U.S. Federal Reserve called a halt to interest rate hikes, policymakers are now battling a view growing in financial markets, and embraced by the Trump administration, that the Fed will need to cut rates before long....(read more)

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Home Buyers See Recession as Likely, but It's Not Stopping Them

While the U.S. economy has been on an upswing for the last seven years, a recession could be looming. But that isn't deterring determined home shoppers. The post Home Buyers See Recession as Likely, but It's Not Stopping Them appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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Q1 GDP Forecasts: Mid 1% Range

From Merrill Lynch: Consumer spending inched up only 0.1% mom in Jan, and a downwardly revised Dec provided a weaker handoff into the quarter. The data sliced 0.3pp from 1Q GDP tracking , bringing our estimate down to 1.7% qoq saar [March 29 estimate] emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.3% for 2019:Q1 and 1.6% for 2019:Q2 [Mar 29 estimate]. And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 1.7 percent on March 29 , up from 1.5 percent on March......(read more)

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White House economic advisor Kudlow says Fed should 'immediately' cut rates

White House economic advisor Kudlow says Fed should 'immediately' cut rates<br/>https://ift.tt/2uw7Yqqread more)

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San Diego Median Home Price at $549K, Sales Sliding

San Diego Median Home Price at $549K, Sales Sliding...(read more)

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Treasuries May Be Open to Tactical Plays as Rally Loses Momentum

Treasuries May Be Open to Tactical Plays as Rally Loses Momentum    Bloomberg Price action and momentum drive flows in bonds, but from a tactical perspective it's no longer compelling to chase the rally in 10-year Treasuries....(read more)

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Fed's Quarles says more rate hikes could be ahead 'at some point' as economy improves

Quarles voiced confidence in the U.S. economy in a speech Friday and said more interest rate hikes likely will be appropriate, countering the prevailing market wisdom....(read more)

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Fed's Neel Kashkari Still Sees Economy on Track Despite Yield Curve

Fed's Neel Kashkari Still Sees Economy on Track Despite Yield Curve    Bloomberg The American economy looks on track for continued growth, though the inversion of the yield curve may be signaling that the U.S. central bank may have set ......(read more)

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The Fed has made a big mistake, and here's how Powell could fix it: Stifel

The Fed made a mistake in hiking rates in December, and it will take two rate cuts to correct, says Stifel's Barry Bannister....(read more)

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U.S., China hold 'candid and constructive' trade talks in Beijing

The United States and China said they made progress in trade talks that concluded on Friday in Beijing that Washington called "candid and constructive" as the world's two largest economies try to resolve a bitter, nearly nine-month trade war....(read more)

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Death knell for May's Brexit deal as lawmakers reject it by 286 to 344

Lawmakers rejected Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal for a third time on Friday, sounding its probable death knell and leaving Britain's withdrawal from the European Union in turmoil on the very day it was supposed to leave the bloc....(read more)

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New home sales rise to 11-month high in February

Sales of new U.S. single-family homes increased to an 11-month high in February and sales for January were revised higher, suggesting that lower mortgage rates were starting to lift the struggling housing market....(read more)

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Personal Income Increased 0.2% in February

The BEA released the Personal Income, February 2019; Personal Outlays, January 2019 : Due to the recent partial government shutdown, this report combines estimates for January and February 2019. January estimates include both personal income and outlays measures, while February estimates are limited to personal income. Estimates of outlays for February will be available with the next release on April 29, 2019. Personal income decreased $22.9 billion (-0.1 percent) in January according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income decreased $34.9......(read more)

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Former UK Brexit minister Raab says he will back PM May's deal on Friday

Former Brexit minister Dominic Raab said he would vote for the government's Withdrawal Agreement on Friday to avoid the risk of Britain having to seek a longer delay to its exit from the European Union....(read more)

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Consumer spending, personal income data show economy slowing swiftly in the new year

U.S. consumer spending rebounded less than expected in January and incomes rose modestly in February, suggesting the economy was fast losing momentum....(read more)

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Yield-Curve Inversion May Speed Up the Dash for Cash

Yield-Curve Inversion May Speed Up the Dash for Cash    Bloomberg Imagine these two investment choices: three-month debt that offers a 2.35 percent annualized yield, or 10-year obligations that yield 2.68 percent. Which is the ......(read more)

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Now the German Yield Curve Is Flattening to a Post-Crisis Low

Now the German Yield Curve Is Flattening to a Post-Crisis Low    Bloomberg A key part of the German yield curve is flattening at the fastest quarterly pace since 2014. Just one week after the same pocket of the yield curve for Treasuries ......(read more)

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Yellen Sees No U.S. Recession, Says Fed Won't Cut Rates in 2019

Yellen Sees No U.S. Recession, Says Fed Won't Cut Rates in 2019    Bloomberg The U.S. economy isn't likely to slip into recession anytime soon, and there is no reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, former Fed Chair Janet ......(read more)

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Wall Street inches up on trade optimism but growth worries weigh

U.S. stocks edged higher on Thursday, helped by optimism over progress in U.S.-China trade talks, but concerns about an economic slowdown after a cut in fourth-quarter GDP growth limited the day's advance....(read more)

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Mortgage Bond Market on Edge After a Spike in Home Refinancings

Mortgage Bond Market on Edge After a Spike in Home Refinancings    Bloomberg A spike in home loan refinancing, falling mortgage rates and newer collateral sporting prepayment red flags have increased prepayment concerns among ......(read more)

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Mortgage rates see biggest weekly drop in a decade

Homebuyers got a big boost to their purchasing power this week. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 4.06 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending Thursday, down from last week when it averaged 4.28 percent, according to Freddie Mac....(read more)

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Bathroom Linen Closets Are Most Wanted Bathroom Feature

A majority of home buyers – 78 percent — expressed that a ‘linen closet in the master bathroom' is a desirable (52 percent) or an essential/must have bathroom feature (26 percent), putting it in first place in the most wanted bathroom features list (Figure 1). This data comes from NAHB's recently released report, What Home Buyers Really Want, 2019 Edition.... Read More ›...(read more)

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Pending home sales drop 1% in February, despite lower mortgage rates

The supply of homes for sale has been rising steadily, up just over 3 percent in February compared with a year ago. Home prices are still rising, but the gains have been shrinking each month for nearly a year....(read more)

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The ECB Is Struggling With Three Big Questions

The ECB Is Struggling With Three Big Questions    Bloomberg Peter Praet's comment on tiering interest rates is just one example of where the ECB can't make its mind up. The others are the outlook and inflation....(read more)

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Q4 GDP Revised Down to 2.2% Annual Rate

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2018 (third estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "initial" estimate issued last month. In the initial estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.6 percent. With this estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of......(read more)

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 211,000

The DOL reported : In the week ending March 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 5,000 from 221,000 to 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,250, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 4,500 from 225,000 to 220,500. emphasis added The previous week was revised down. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger......(read more)

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US GDP fourth-quarter final reading up 2.2%, as expected

The final reading for fourth-quarter gross domestic product was expected to show a 2.2 percent gain, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones....(read more)

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Bond yields keep falling, stocks try to steady

Global bond yields continued to spiral lower in Asia on Thursday as recession fears fed expectations of more policy easing by major central banks, though some share markets in the region did manage to steady after an early sell off....(read more)

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Here's the major risk facing the rally in homebuilding stocks

The SPDR S&P Homebuilder ETF is having its best quarter since 2012, but analysts are growing concerned that weak housing starts could put a lid on the gains....(read more)

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The bond market has been spooked and so the big interest rate slide is likely not over

The Fed's March meeting was expected to have been uneventful. Instead, it set off what is now a week's worth of upheaval in global bond markets that could still have a ways to go....(read more)

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Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Smaller YoY House Price Gains in February

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for January were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: January Case-Shiller Results and February Forecast: Lowest Gains Since 2015 he national housing market's ongoing, slow march back to "normal" is continuing into the start of 2019 - setting up a spring in which buyers will have more power than they have in years, although they still may need to work hard to find a favorable deal. House prices climbed 4.3......(read more)

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S&P 500 slides, bond yields fall on slowdown worries

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell on Wednesday as U.S. bond yields fell again and a prolonged inversion in the yield curve fanned growth worries....(read more)

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Britain's May says she will quit if her Brexit deal passes

British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Wednesday she would quit if her twice-defeated EU divorce deal passes at the third attempt, making a last-ditch bid to persuade rebels in her Conservative party to back her....(read more)

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The Eviction Crisis Is Starting to Look a Lot Like the Subprime Mortgage Crisis

Stable housing is increasingly out of reach for many Americans, as both rentals and homes to own grow more expensive and options dwindle. The post The Eviction Crisis Is Starting to Look a Lot Like the Subprime Mortgage Crisis appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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Homebuyers face far fewer bidding wars as the housing market cools off

During the first three weeks of March, a mere 16 percent of buyer offers written by real estate brokerage Redfin faced a bidding war. That is a sharp drop from the 61 percent of offers that faced competition during the same period a year ago. Redfin operates in more than 85 major metropolitan markets across the U.S....(read more)

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UK parliament taking control of Brexit is worrying precedent: minister

Andrea Leadsom, who is in charge of the British government's business in parliament, said on Wednesday the government would oppose the business motion allowing lawmakers to take control of the Brexit process, calling it a worrying precedent....(read more)

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Trump expected to sign memorandum on federal housing finance reform

President Donald Trump is expected to sign a memorandum on federal housing finance reform on Wednesday, according to a White House official....(read more)

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Draghi says the ECB stands ready to act and could delay a rate hike again

European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi made further dovish comments on Wednesday, suggesting there could be another delay in hiking interest rates if required....(read more)

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World shares slip and bond yields fall, all eyes on central banks

Global equity markets nudged down on Wednesday as investors hoped central bank action in the world's biggest economies could temper some of the slowdown in global growth, despite bond yields still flagging recessionary fears....(read more)

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UK PM May: I can deliver Brexit if lawmakers back my deal this week

British Prime Minister Theresa May told lawmakers on Wednesday that she could fulfill her pledge to take Britain out of the European Union if they backed her divorce deal this week....(read more)

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Likely Fed nominee Stephen Moore thinks rates should be cut by half a percentage point

The Heritage Foundation fellow and former Wall Street Journal editor board member backed off on earlier criticism he had for the Fed and specifically its chairman, Jerome Powell....(read more)

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Moore's Call for Fed-Rate Cut Jars With Board's Defense of Pause

Moore's Call for Fed-Rate Cut Jars With Board's Defense of Pause    Bloomberg Stephen Moore, who Donald Trump may nominate for a seat on the Federal Reserve Board, told the New York Times in an interview that the central bank should ......(read more)

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Here's Why U.S. Bond Yields Plunged So Much Over the Past Week

Here's Why U.S. Bond Yields Plunged So Much Over the Past Week    Bloomberg The Federal Reserve's surprise policy shift last week shook markets, but, even still, the intensity of the ensuing drop in U.S. bond yields has puzzled many ......(read more)

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'There's no way' we're headed for recession—five experts on the bond market's warning sign

A well-known recession indicator doesn't have analysts and economists as worried about the fate of U.S. markets as some might think....(read more)

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Want to sell your home? Hurry up and list it next week

Timing is everything, especially in a housing market that has been less than dependable lately. So if you want to get the best price for your home in the shortest amount of time, you'd better list it next week, at least according to realtor.com....(read more)

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Goldman says investors are looking at the wrong bond market indicator and recession is less likely

Goldman Sachs strategists, in a note, said the yield curve has inverted, but in an unusual way, and it's not sending the same powerful recession signal it has in the past....(read more)

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Fed's Rosengren Hangs On to Hiking Bias Despite Rising Risks

Fed's Rosengren Hangs On to Hiking Bias Despite Rising Risks    Bloomberg Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren still thinks the central bank's next move for interest rates is more likely to be a hike than a cut. He just ......(read more)

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Mohamed El-Erian: Absent a 'policy mistake,' there's no way US will have a recession this year or in 2020

The "peculiar" technicals in the market have to do with Europe and what's happening with the Fed, Allianz's chief economic advisor says....(read more)

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Fears of recession keep risk rebound in check

Calm returned to global markets on Tuesday, with gains on European and Asian bourses and a tick higher in benchmark bond yields helping to soothe nerves after a jarring few days dominated by worries of recession....(read more)

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For millennials, this is the greatest hurdle to homeownership

More than a quarter of millennials say buying a home was the major milestone they prioritize the most, even over getting married, having children and retiring, according to a new report....(read more)

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