Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in December

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate was unchanged at 0.76% in December, from 0.76% in November. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.24% in December 2017. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%. This matches last month ass the lowest serious delinquency rate for Fannie Mae since August 2007. Click on graph for larger image By vintage , for loans made in 2004 or earlier (3% of portfolio), 2.69% are seriously......(read more)

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Trump wants 'very big' U.S.-China trade deal, hints at delays

President Donald Trump said on Thursday he wanted a "very big deal" U.S. trade deal with China, but signaled there could be delays if negotiations fail to meet his goals of opening the Chinese economy broadly to U.S. industry and agriculture....(read more)

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The Fed is on hold for now, but some in the market are still bracing for more hikes

While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that policymakers are in pause mode for the time being, there's no telling how long that could last....(read more)

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The 15 most difficult places to buy a home in the US

Online loan marketplace LendingTree ranked the most competitive housing markets in the U.S., based on the number of buyers who shopped around for mortgages before looking at houses, the average down payment percentage and the number of buyers with good or excellent credit scores....(read more)

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Student Loans Crowding Out Home Purchases

Student and auto loans have historically dominated non-mortgage, non-revolving credit, as seen in the Federal Reserve's G.19 Consumer Credit report. As of the third quarter of 2018, student loan debt totaled $1.6 trillion.  As student-loan debt has historically made up the majority of non-mortgage, non-revolving credit, homeownership is the opportunity cost for its accumulation. In January 2019, as part of its... Read More ›...(read more)

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CFPB publishes final rules on civil penalty adjustments and allowable charges for FCRA disclosures

The CFPB has published two final rules in today's Federal Register, one dealing with civil penalty adjustments and the other with allowable charges for FCRA disclosures.  Both rules are effective immediately. Civil penalty adjustments.  The CFPB's final rule finalizes an interim final rule (IFR) it published in November 2016 to create 12 C.F.R. Part 1083... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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55+ Housing Market Ends Fourth Quarter on a Positive Note

The National Association of Home Builders' 55+ single-family housing market index rose 6 points to 66 in the fourth quarter of 2018, returning to levels seen in the first half of the year (Figure 1). A reading at or above 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. The 55+ HMI consists of two indices: one for... Read More ›...(read more)

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Ex-Atlanta Fed chief throws cold water on the notion central bankers won't hike rates this year

Central bankers will likely be on hold until mid-year before they'll have to reevaluate inflation data, says Dennis Lockhart....(read more)

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Nuggets from the Fed's new Financial Stability and Supervision & Regulation reports

The Federal Reserve's inaugural reports on Financial Stability and Supervision & Regulation offer a useful peek into Fed thinking and underscore the Fed's responsibilities for more than inflation and unemployment. The reports didn't get much attention because they didn't seem to say much new, didn't shout about some otherwise unnoticed risk, and were written cautiously.…                ...(read more)

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 253,000

The DOL reported : In the week ending January 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 253,000 , an increase of 53,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the highest level for initial claims since September 30, 2017 when it was 254,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 199,000 to 200,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,250, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 215,000 to 215,250. emphasis added The previous week was revised up. The following graph......(read more)

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US Treasury yields move lower as Federal Reserve turns more cautious

U.S. government debt prices were higher Thursday morning, as market participants awaited a fresh batch of economic data and Treasury auctions....(read more)

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Fed's Dovish Pivot Flattens Remaining Rate-Hike Expectations

Fed's Dovish Pivot Flattens Remaining Rate-Hike Expectations    Bloomberg Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the Federal Reserve won't raise interest rates again until inflation accelerates in a dovish pivot that left many investors betting ......(read more)

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You Won't Believe How Much Home Sellers Pocketed in 2018

Home sellers were raking in the dough last year, earning the highest profits in a dozen years. But that could soon change as the real estate market slows. The post You Won’t Believe How Much Home Sellers Pocketed in 2018 appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in December, Lowest since 2007

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in December was 0.69%, down from 0.70% in November. Freddie's rate is down from 1.08% in December 2017. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. This is the lowest serious delinquency rate for Freddie Mac since December 2007. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  Click on graph for larger image The increase in the delinquency rate late last year was due to the hurricanes (These are serious delinquencies, so it took three months......(read more)

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Powell says the Fed did not change course on interest rates in response to Trump

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at a press conference on Wednesday, following the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee....(read more)

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Fed leaves rates unchanged, says will be 'patient' on future hikes

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday but said it would be patient in lifting borrowing costs further this year as it pointed to rising uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook....(read more)

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Instant View: Fed holds rates steady

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday but said it would be patient in lifting borrowing costs further this year as it pointed to rising uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook....(read more)

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Traders add to bets against further Fed rate hikes

U.S. short-term interest-rate futures erased earlier losses and swung higher on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said it will be "patient" on future interest rate hikes....(read more)

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Dimon says he's willing to pay higher taxes, but government spending needs to be more effective

Dimon says he's willing to pay higher taxes, but government spending needs to be more effective<br/>https://cnb.cx/2Uqe3Q0read more)

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J.P. Morgan sees Fed leaving $1 trillion in bank reserves

J.P. Morgan on Wednesday raised its estimate on the amount of excess reserves that the U.S. Federal Reserve would leave in the U.S. banking system to $1 trillion, double what it had previously projected....(read more)

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Home Buyers Can Rejoice While Sellers Sweat Inventory Bump

After a crazy few years of bidding wars and offers over asking price, the slowing real estate market is making it easier for buyers to find the homes of their dreams. The post Home Buyers Can Rejoice While Sellers Sweat for This Important Reason appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Smaller House Price Gains in December YoY

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for November were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Aaron Terrazas at Zillow: November Case-Shiller Results and December Forecast: San Francisco Falls Out of Top Three Home-Price Gainers The U.S. National S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index - which tracks home prices - rose 5.2 percent in November from a year earlier, below Zillow's forecast last month. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city index climbed 4.7......(read more)

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Redfin Report: Seattle Reclaims its Migration-Destination Status

More People Look to Move to the Emerald City than Leave for Third Quarter in a Row as Denver Secures its Spot on the ‘Moving Out' List Twenty-five percent of Redfin.com home searchers looked to move to another metro area in the fourth quarter of 2018, compared to 23 percent during the same period last […] The post Redfin Report: Seattle Reclaims its Migration-Destination Status appeared first on Redfin Real-Time ....(read more)

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December pending home sales drop to lowest point in five years, despite much lower interest rates

House hunters signed 2.2 percent fewer contracts to buy existing homes in December, according to the National Association of Realtors. These so-called pending sales are a future indicator of closings in one to two months. The Realtors' pending home sales index was also down a dramatic 9.8 percent compared with December 2017, marking 12 straight months of annual declines....(read more)

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Fed is likely to hold rates steady as it navigates data blind spots

In the six weeks since a confident U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates in response to a "strong" U.S. economy, consumer confidence dropped, wholesale prices weakened, financial markets wobbled and home sales fell....(read more)

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Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach says we just got 'the most recessionary signal' yet

While confidence in the broader confidence index remains strong, the Expectations Index tumbled from 97.7 to 87.3 from December. Wide gaps have pointed to recessions in the past....(read more)

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UK parliament rejects Labour's Brexit amendment

British lawmakers voted 327 to 296 on Tuesday against a proposal which called for parliament to consider alternative options to prevent Britain leaving the European Union without a deal....(read more)

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British lawmakers vote down bid to prevent no-deal Brexit

British lawmakers voted on Tuesday against a bid to prevent a potentially disorderly no-deal Brexit by wresting control of the negotiations from Prime Minister Theresa May if she fails to secure concessions from Brussels....(read more)

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Fed Seen Pausing Rate Hikes But Still Moving Twice This Year

Fed Seen Pausing Rate Hikes But Still Moving Twice This Year    Bloomberg The Federal Reserve may have taken a break but it hasn't finished raising interest rates, according to a new Bloomberg survey of economists....(read more)

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San Jose Home Prices Down 8% From Last Year, Falling for First Time Since 2012

In San Jose, December 2018 and the first few weeks of 2019 brought new lows for home-price growth and bidding wars. The median home price in the San Jose metro area was down 8 percent annually to $975,000 for the month ending on January 20. That continues a trend that began in December when local home […] The post San Jose Home Prices Down 8% From Last Year, Falling for First Time Since 2012 appeared first on Redfin Real-Time ....(read more)

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Recession Odds Spike to Highest in 3 Years

CNBC FED SURVEY: CNBC'S STEVE LIESMAN: RECESSION ODDS SPIKE TO THEIR HIGHEST IN THREE YEARS|| 105706825...(read more)

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Fed's Powell works Congress as Trump stews over rate hikes

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been meeting with lawmakers at a faster clip than his two predecessors, a push that appears to be earning him allies as he navigates tricky monetary policy waters and vocal White House criticism....(read more)

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Consumer confidence hits 120.2 in January, vs estimate of 124.9

U.S. consumer confidence was expected to fall to 124.9 in January from the 128.1 reading for the previous month....(read more)

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Mortgage Market Moves

As has been discussed, information compiled by Freddie Mac shows that mortgage rates reversed coursed in December. The 30-year FRM – Commitment rate, which had been increasing since August, fell by 23 basis points to 4.64 percent from 4.87 percent in November. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that the contract rate for newly-built homes, inched up two basis points... Read More ›...(read more)

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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.2% year-over-year in November

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("October" is a 3 month average of September, October and November prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs. From S&P: Southwest Region Leads in Annual Gains According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S.......(read more)

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These are the three things markets are expecting to hear from the Fed and Jerome Powell

The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week, and chairman Jerome Powell is expected to go out of his way to not rock financial markets....(read more)

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US Treasury yields mixed ahead of Fed meeting

U.S. government debt prices were mixed on Tuesday morning amid trade war fears and ahead of a new meeting for the Federal Reserve....(read more)

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The Fed's Balance Sheet Is Misunderstood

The Fed's Balance Sheet Is Misunderstood    Bloomberg The Federal Reserve finds itself in a tricky position with its balance sheet policy. Years of bond purchases via quantitative easing caused the central bank's ......(read more)

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U.S. fourth-quarter GDP, December income spending reports delayed

The U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said on Monday it was delaying the release of advance fourth-quarter gross domestic product and December personal income reports scheduled for this week because of the just-ended five-week partial shutdown of the federal government....(read more)

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The CBO thinks the Fed is going to raise interest rates this year, disagreeing with Wall Street

Wall Street may not be anticipating any interest rate increases this year, but government forecasters disagree as the need to control inflation may outweigh concerns expressed in markets....(read more)

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Government Shutdown Is Over, So Where Is the Economic Data?

Forecasters, investors and policymakers lack many of the reports they rely on, just as concerns grow that the nation's economic expansion could be ending....(read more)

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China worries send stocks down, rising supply hits oil

Global stock markets tumbled on Monday after Caterpillar and Nvidia Corp warned of weak Chinese demand while oil headed for its biggest one-day drop in a month on expectations of growing U.S. crude supply....(read more)

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CFPB issues annual report on servicemember complaints

The CFPB's Office of Servicemember Affairs has released its annual report on complaints submitted to the Bureau by servicemembers. The report covers the period April 1, 2017 through August 31, 2018.  During that period, the Bureau received approximately 48,800 complaints from servicemembers, with credit reporting, debt collection, and mortgages, respectively, the first, second, and third... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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Merrill on NFP

Here is Merrill Lynch economists forecast for the January non-farm payroll report: We look for nonfarm payrolls to grow by 185k in January following a strong gain of 312k in December. We expect private payrolls, which excludes government workers to increase by 185k, implying no change in government payrolls in January. Our private payrolls tracker based on internal BAC data is looking for somewhat stronger employment growth of 232k but we see a few reasons to fade the strength this month. ... We also see some downside risk to private payroll employment growth due to the partial federal......(read more)

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U.S. growth to slow in 2019 as deficit climbs: congressional researchers

U.S. economic growth will slow this year to 2.3 percent from 3.1 percent in 2018, as the stimulative effects of President Donald Trump's tax cuts wane and the federal budget deficit climbs to nearly $900 billion, congressional researchers said on Monday....(read more)

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The shutdown cost the economy $11 billion – including a permanent $3 billion loss, government says

Overall, the CBO projected economic growth will slow this year to 2.3 percent, compared to the 3.1 percent rate last year, as the benefits of the new tax law begin to fade....(read more)

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Dallas Fed: "Growth in Texas Manufacturing Activity Accelerates"

From the Dallas Fed: Growth in Texas Manufacturing Activity Accelerates Texas factory activity continued to expand in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 7.3 to 14.5, indicating an acceleration in output growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also suggested continued expansion in January, although the pace of demand growth slowed a bit. The capacity utilization index rose seven points to 14.8, and the shipments index rose five points to 11.4.......(read more)

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Powell on the Spot After Fed's Monetary Messages Whipsaw Market

Powell on the Spot After Fed's Monetary Messages Whipsaw Market    Bloomberg Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has some further explaining to do after the central bank's monetary messages whipsawed financial markets over the ......(read more)

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The Fed Should Consider Lowering Rates

The Fed Should Consider Lowering Rates    Bloomberg Nobody is expecting any major news from this week's policy-making meeting at the Federal Reserve. That's unfortunate, because the Fed should be considering ......(read more)

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Chicago Fed "Index Points to a Slight Increase in Economic Growth in December"

From the Chicago Fed: Index Points to a Slight Increase in Economic Growth in December Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved up slightly to +0.27 in December from +0.21 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from November, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in December. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged up to +0.16 in December from +0.12 in November. emphasis added This graph shows the Chicago Fed National......(read more)

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