Housing and Recessions

Following the weak new home sales report, I'd like to update a couple of graphs. For the economy, what we should be focused on are single family starts and new home sales . As I noted in Investment and Recessions "New Home Sales appears to be an excellent leading indicator, and currently new home sales (and housing starts) are up solidly year-over-year, and this suggests there is no recession in sight." Since I wrote that post, new home sales and housing starts have weakened. For the bottoms and troughs for key housing activity, here is a graph of Single family housing starts, New Home Sales, ......(read more)

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