Wednesday, October 31, 2018

San Francisco Bay area home sales suffer their slowest September in 11 years

High prices and rising mortgage rates are taking their toll on home sales in the pricey San Francisco Bay Area. Sales fell to the slowest pace in 11 years in September. Prices, however, are still gaining, although not as much as in previous  months. ...(read more)
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American Homeownership Increases Again as Housing Market Looks for Balance

More Americans became homeowners in the summer months, fresh evidence of a housing market that's finding some stability after several rocky years. The post American Homeownership Increases Again as Housing Market Looks for Balance appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)
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CFPB Revises HMDA Small Entity Compliance Guide

The CFPB recently issued a revised version of the Home Mortgage Disclosure (Regulation C) Small Entity Compliance Guide to reflect a partial exemption to Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) requirements made by the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act and a related interpretive procedural rule issued by the CFPB. Pursuant to the partial... Continue Reading…...(read more)
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Robust earnings boost equity markets after brutal month

Robust corporate results helped world stock markets surge on Wednesday, bringing some relief to jittery investors after a brutal October that saw equities suffer one of their worst drops since the financial crisis ten years ago....(read more)
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Treasury Lifts Long-Term Debt Sales for Fourth-Straight Quarter

Treasury Lifts Long-Term Debt Sales for Fourth-Straight Quarter Bloomberg The U.S. Treasury Department will raise the amount of long-term debt it sells to $83 billion this quarter, again concentrating its increases of coupon-bearing debt on securities with five years or less to maturity. In its quarterly refunding ... and more »...(read more)
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U.S. Federal Reserve unveils proposal to ease regulations for larger banks

The U.S. Federal Reserve unveiled a proposal on Wednesday that would ease regulations for banks with less than $700 billion in assets....(read more)
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Community Associations Continue to Rise

According to data from the Census Bureau's Survey of Construction (SOC), 60.7 percent of all homes started in 2017 were built within a community or homeowner's association. The Census Bureau defines community or homeowner's associations as "formal legal entities created to maintain common areas of a development and to enforce private deed restrictions; these organizations are usually created when the... Read More ›...(read more)
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Foreigners Like U.S. Debt as Much as They Ever Have

There is no shortage of the threats that could push interest rates even higher from here, from the rapidly expanding U.S. budget deficit to the Federal Reserve's hawkish leanings to even the European Central Bank's plan to start tapering its bond purchases by the end of the year. Also, some would argue that the economy is doing well enough to provoke at least a bit more inflation. And then there's the crowd that says foreigners are shying away from U.S. debt....(read more)
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Wages and salaries jump by 3.1%, highest level in a decade

Wages and salaries jump by 3.1%, highest level in a decade|| 105542474...(read more)
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The problem with housing is prices have recovered but demand hasn't: Real estate mogul Sam Zell

"We're dealing with a changed housing market," the billionaire investor says....(read more)
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'Robust' jobs market sees another 227,000 hires in October

Companies continued to hire at a brisk pace in October, with private payrolls rising by a better-than-expected 227,000, according to ADP and Moody's Analytics....(read more)
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Yellen says rising deficit is unsustainable: 'If I had a magic wand, I would raise taxes'

The United States is taking on too much debt right now, a problem that is will only worsen moving forward, former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Tuesday....(read more)
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Janet Yellen Says She's Concerned About Trump Undermining Trust in Fed

Bloomberg Janet Yellen Says She's Concerned About Trump Undermining Trust in Fed Bloomberg Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said she's concerned President Donald Trump's complaints about U.S. monetary policy may undermine confidence in the central bank as she expressed support for more interest-rate increases to keep the economy ......(read more)
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Yields steady, volume low with spate of data ahead

Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds were steady in light trading on Tuesday as investors held off on making big moves ahead of this week's spate of economic data....(read more)
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Tuesday, October 30, 2018

Southern California suffers its worst housing slump in over a decade

The number of new and existing houses and condominiums sold during the month plummeted nearly 18 percent compared with September 2017, according to CoreLogic. ...(read more)
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Millennial Homeownership Rate Rises to 37%

According to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS), the U.S. homeownership rate was 64.4% in the third quarter of 2018, which is not statistically different from its last quarter reading. The national homeownership rate demonstrated stability during a quarter in which housing markets softened due to declining affordability conditions. This follows the rate dropping to a cycle low of... Read More ›...(read more)
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Italy Bonds Slide as Economy Slows, Debt Auction Underwhelms

Bloomberg Italy Bonds Slide as Economy Slows, Debt Auction Underwhelms Bloomberg Italian bonds dropped after the economy slowed and sale prices for 10-year debt at an auction were below market levels. The securities snapped a three-day rally after the nation's growth stagnated in the third quarter, and extended the decline after ... and more »...(read more)
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Consumer confidence rises to an 18-year high in October

U.S. consumer confidence rose to an 18-year high in October, driven largely a robust labor market, suggesting strong economic growth could persist in the near term....(read more)
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HVS: Q3 2018 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q3 2018. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.  However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey. This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers.  The Census Bureau is investigating the differences between the HVS, ACS and decennial Census, and analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant......(read more)
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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.8% year-over-year in August

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3 month average of June, July and August prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs. From S&P: Annual Gains Fall Below 6% for the First Time in 12 Months According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine ......(read more)
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Will HUD propose a revised disparate impact rule by December 18?

In June 2018, HUD issued an advance notice of proposed rulemaking (ANPR) seeking comment on whether its 2013 Fair Housing Act disparate impact rule (Rule) should be revised in light of the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2015 Inclusive Communities decision.  Comments on the ANPR were due by August 20, 2018.  The Rule is the subject of a lawsuit originally... Continue Reading…...(read more)
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Redfin Housing Demand Index Posts Strong Gain from August to September

Still, Housing Demand Remains Double Digits Below Last Year's Levels Most of Monthly Increase in Homebuyer Activity is Seen in the Touring Stage, with Offer Growth Lagging The Redfin Housing Demand Index increased 5.1 percent from August to 131 in September, after remaining essentially flat around 124 since May. The month-over-month increase in demand was […] The post Redfin Housing Demand Index Posts Strong Gain from August to September appeared first on Redfin Real-Time ....(read more)
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Trump says he expects 'great deal' with China, but more tariffs if not

Trump says he expects 'great deal' with China, but more tariffs if not ...(read more)
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US House Prices Are Rising Faster Than American Wages

Bloomberg US House Prices Are Rising Faster Than American Wages Bloomberg This is how housing markets turn. Slowly. Six years of home-price gains outpacing wage growth; bidding wars replaced by sales at the asking price; days or weeks on the market turning into months; rising mortgage rates. First-time shoppers start to get ......(read more)
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Blockchain Could Speed Homebuying, Once the Hurdles Are Cleared

Blockchain Could Speed Homebuying-Once the Hurdles Are Cleared Bloomberg Anyone who's ever bought or sold a home knows how expensive and drawn out that can be. Now an Ohio county wants to cut the time to transfer a title to hours or even seconds using blockchain. The technology could reduce closing costs that run thousands ......(read more)
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Monday, October 29, 2018

Fed reportedly ready to change more banking regulations

The Federal Reserve is expected this week to vote on banking standards that would change the way big banks are regulated, according to a Dow Jones report....(read more)
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The Fed may have to make an important adjustment to the way it's raising rates

Along with an expected rate hike in December, some central bank watchers expect the Federal Reserve to approve another tweak to ensure that its current policy path, which has come under increasing pressure lately, proceeds smoothly....(read more)
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Wall Street falls on fresh China tariff worries

U.S. stocks fell on Monday in a volatile session, with the S&P 500 ending just shy of confirming its second correction of 2018, hurt by fresh worries of an escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions and a sharp drop in big tech and internet names....(read more)
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Costs Spike Nationwide After Housing Fires

Costs Spike Nationwide After Housing Fires...(read more)
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Q3 2018 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

The BEA has released the underlying details for the Q3 advance GDP report. The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 7.9% annual pace in Q3.  Investment in petroleum and natural gas exploration decreased slightly in Q3 compared to Q2, but has increased substantially recently. Without the increase in petroleum and natural gas exploration, non-residential investment would only be up about 4% year-over-year. Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. Investment in......(read more)
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What Happens WHEN We Wake Up To This Amazon Mortgage Headline?

Amazon Mortgage isn't a hazy dream. It's only a matter of time. The post What Happens WHEN We Wake Up To This Amazon Mortgage Headline? appeared first on The Basis Point ....(read more)
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Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Continues to Expand, but Pace Slows"

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Continues to Expand, but Pace Slows Texas factory activity continued to expand in October, albeit at a slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, was positive but declined another six points to 17.6, indicating output growth continued to abate . Some other indexes of manufacturing activity also suggested slower expansion in October. The capacity utilization index retreated six points to 15.4, while the shipments index fell......(read more)
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4 gig economy trends that are radically transforming the US job market

Some 60 million Americans make up the gig economy, and by 2027 the majority of workers in the U.S. will be contract workers. This has major implications for the American workforce - and corporations - in the years ahead....(read more)
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Sale and Contract Prices per Square Foot in 2017

Looking at single-family homes started in 2017, the median prices per square foot, excluding improved lot values, range from $155 for contractor-built homes in the Pacific division to $86 for speculatively built homes in the East South Central division. The median sale and contract prices per square foot are up across most divisions. The most significant gains are registered in... Read More ›...(read more)
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Americans Save Less to Sustain Spending as Income Gains Cool

Bloomberg Americans Save Less to Sustain Spending as Income Gains Cool Bloomberg Americans kept on spending in September as income gains cooled, pushing down the savings rate to the lowest this year. Inflation matched the Federal Reserve's target, reinforcing the central bank's outlook for gradual interest-rate hikes. Purchases ......(read more)
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Five Potential Triggers for Market Bottom

Bloomberg Five Potential Triggers for Market Bottom Bloomberg Kieran Calder, head of Asia equity research at Union Bancaire Privee, talks about the volatility in global stocks and Federal Reserve policy. He speaks with Rishaad Salamat and Yvonne Man on "Bloomberg Markets: Asia." (Source: Bloomberg) ......(read more)
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Sick of Renting? Here Are the Top Buyer's Bargains in America's Biggest Cities

Realtor.com found the neighborhoods in the biggest cities that are buyer's markets-with the most homes for sale, lower prices, and longest days on the market. The post Sick of Renting? Here Are the Top Buyer’s Bargains in America’s Biggest Cities appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)
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US Treasury yields move higher as investors await economic data, auctions

Market sentiment has been hit by a range of negative factors in recent weeks, with investors concerned about an intensifying U.S.-China trade war, cooling global growth and Federal Reserve rate increases....(read more)
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Friday, October 26, 2018

Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller: I don't expect a sharp turn in the housing market

The housing market may be slowing down, but Yale economist Robert Shiller says he isn't fearful that a big downturn is ahead....(read more)
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How Markets Might React to a Surprise Republican Election Sweep

Bloomberg How Markets Might React to a Surprise Republican Election Sweep Bloomberg With just 11 days to go till the midterm elections, analysts have started considering the market impact of some less-likely outcomes. Specifically, what would happen if Republicans were to hold the U.S. House of Representatives and gain seats in the ... and more »...(read more)
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Equities' slide sends bonds, gold higher, dents greenback

Stock markets around the world fell on Friday on track for the longest weekly losing streak since 2013 while U.S. Treasury prices rose along with demand for safer bets as better than expected U.S. economic data did little to assuage anxiety over disappointing corporate profits and trade wars....(read more)
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Declines for Housing Share of GDP

With the release of the first estimate of third quarter 2018 GDP growth (a 3.5% annual growth rate), housing's share of gross domestic product (GDP) fell slightly to 14.9%. The home building and remodeling component – residential fixed investment – also decreased slightly, falling to 3.25% Housing-related activities contribute to GDP in two basic ways. The first is through residential fixed investment (RFI). RFI is... Read More ›...(read more)
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Watch Real Estate for First Signs That Passive Investing Has Grown Too Big

Bloomberg Watch Real Estate for First Signs That Passive Investing Has Grown Too Big Bloomberg The future of passive investing is facing one of its biggest tests yet. And surprisingly the challenge is coming from a handful of relatively obscure real-estate companies. Funds that track indexes are coming increasingly close to owning a majority of ......(read more)
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The labor market is booming, why aren't your wages?

On Oct. 16, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced yet another piece of good news: the number of job openings has risen to more than 7.1 million, continuing a particularly rapid pace of expansion starting at the beginning of 2018. However a critical measure of economic progress, wage growth, is telling a different story. Before adjusting…                ...(read more)
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Soothing words from Fed as rate hits ceiling for first time

Federal Reserve officials have tried this week to ease concerns on Wall Street that bank reserves are growing scarce and that the Fed's key rate will edge up above a policy range, possibly forcing it to permanently hold more assets than planned....(read more)
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Q3 GDP: Investment

The first graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy. In the graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures. So the usual pattern - both into and out of recessions is - red, green, blue. The dashed gray line is the contribution......(read more)
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Wall Street sinks as Amazon, Alphabet earnings spark growth concerns

U.S. stocks plunged on Friday as grim earnings reports from Amazon and Alphabet rekindled a rush to dump technology and high-growth stocks, but data showing economic growth in the last quarter slowed less than expected provided some relief....(read more)
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Consumer sentiment hits 98.6 in Oct., vs. 99 estimate

Consumer sentiment for October was anticipated to come in slightly below last month's survey result....(read more)
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U.S. economic growth slows less than expected in third quarter

The U.S. economy slowed less than expected in the third quarter as a tariff-related drop in soybean exports was partially offset by the strongest consumer spending in nearly a four years and a surge in inventory investment....(read more)
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Fed's Mester: Market turmoil is a 'risk' to economic outlook, but not changing my mind at this point

Fed's Mester: Market turmoil is a 'risk' to economic outlook, but not changing my mind at this point<br/>https://ift.tt/2Rfcracread more)
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