Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for 8+ years. The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler's predictions, and the NAR's initially reported level of sales. Lawler hasn't always been closer than the consensus, but usually when there has been a fairly large spread between Lawler's estimate and the "consensus", Lawler has been closer. As an example, last month (March 2018) the consensus was for sales of 5.28 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Lawler estimated 5.51 million, and......(
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