Four Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%

The advance Q1 GDP report will be released next Friday, April 27th.   The consensus is for real GDP growth of 2.1% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Here are four Q1 GDP forecast. From Merrill Lynch: We expect real GDP growth to slow to 1.7% qoq saar in the advance 1Q report [April 20 estimate]. From Nomura: We expect the first reading of Q1 real GDP growth to come in at 1.6% q-o-q saar [April 20 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 2.0 percent on......(read more)

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