Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

CR Note: This is a repeat of earlier posts with updated graphs. A few key points: 1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices. 2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern. 3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the seasonal factor is based on several years of data - and the factor is now overstating the seasonal change (second graph below). 4) Still the seasonal index is probably a better indicator of actual price movements than the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) index. For in depth description of these issues, see former......(read more)

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