Rates Driven by Household Formation for Next Decade, Says Smead

Bloomberg Rates Driven by Household Formation for Next Decade, Says Smead Bloomberg William Smead, chief executive officer and chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management, and Danielle DiMartino Booth, founder at Money Strong, discuss comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the issues impacting interest rates ......(read more)

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These States Have the Highest Property Taxes, but a Possible Loophole Offers Hope

A new survey by WalletHub has determined that New Jersey has earned the dubious honor of having the highest property tax rate in the nation. The post These States Have the Highest Property Taxes, but a Possible Loophole Offers Hope appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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Dow slides 200 points, on track to snap longest monthly win streak since 1959

U.S. stocks gyrated between gains and losses as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile month for the major averages....(read more)

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Ben Carson And HUD Face Allegations Of Lavish Spending, Including $31,000 Furniture

A whistle-blower also filed a complaint alleging she was demoted for refusing to exceed the legal $5,000 limit on new decor. The allegations come as HUD's budget could be slashed by billions....(read more)

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Earlier: Chicago PMI Declines in February, Still Solid

From the Chicago PMI: February Chicago Business Barometer Declines to 61.9 The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell 3.8 points to 61.9 in February , down from 65.7 in January, to the lowest level since August 2017. Business activity continued to expand in February, although at a softer pace than in January. All five of the Barometer components receded on the month, but despite a second straight monthly fall, the Barometer was still up 8% on last February and above the 2017 average of 60.8 . ... "Disruptive weather conditions this month and large promotions at the back-end of last year appear......(read more)

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US "aggressive debt issuance" may be what bursts the bond bubble, investor warns

Rapidly mounting debt in the U.S. may be the trigger that bursts the bond bubble, Jordon Kruse of Oaktree Capital Management told CNBC Wednesday....(read more)

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U.S. fourth-quarter GDP growth revised down to 2.5 percent

WASHINGTON, (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth slowed slightly more than initially thought in the fourth quarter as the strongest pace of consumer spending in three years drew in imports and depleted inventories....(read more)

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Lowe's profit and margins miss lowest Wall Street estimate, shares tumble

(Reuters) - Lowe's Companies Inc's quarterly profit and gross margins failed to beat even Wall Street's lowest estimate on Wednesday as the No.2 U.S. home improvement chain's margins fell, sending its shares down about 10 percent premarket....(read more)

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Bond Market Déjà Vu? Here's What Will Reveal If Rout Has Legs

Bloomberg Bond Market Déjà Vu? Here's What Will Reveal If Rout Has Legs Bloomberg It's perhaps the biggest question for financial markets in 2018: How high will Treasury yields climb? The next month may just hold the answer. After the benchmark 10-year U.S. note yield hit 2.9537 percent on Feb. 21, a four-year high, it seemed ... and more »...(read more)

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Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

CR Note: This is a repeat of earlier posts with updated graphs. A few key points: 1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices. 2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern. 3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the seasonal factor is based on several years of data - and the factor is now overstating the seasonal change (second graph below). 4) Still the seasonal index is probably a better indicator of actual price movements than the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) index. For in depth description of these issues, see former......(read more)

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Powell's 'Continuity' Promise Foretells Still Slower Mortgage-Backed Securities Speeds

Bloomberg Powell's 'Continuity' Promise Foretells Still Slower Mortgage-Backed Securities Speeds Bloomberg New Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's pledge to "provide for continuity in monetary policy" points to higher rates through year-end and continued muted prepayment speeds for mortgage-backed securities. With the 30-year mortgage rate sporting a robust 0.73 ... and more »...(read more)

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Wells Fargo accused of preying on black and Latino homebuyers in California

Wells Fargo discriminated against black and Latino homebuyers in Sacramento, California, by pushing them into more expensive mortgages than white borrowers, according to a federal lawsuit that cites former employees....(read more)

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A Fed duet: Janet Yellen in conversation with Ben Bernanke

anet Yellen recently finished a four-year term as Federal Reserve chair, the capstone to a distinguished career that took her from Fort Hamilton High School in Brooklyn to Brown, Yale, Harvard, and Berkeley and on to the White House Council of Economic Advisers, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and the Fed's Board of Governors....(read more)

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Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in December

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.3% year-over-year in December It has been more than ten years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 7.0% above the previous bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is still about 11.1% below the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now around 6%. In December, the index was up......(read more)

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Richmond Fed: District Manufacturing Firms Reported Robust Growth in February

From the Richmond Fed: Fifth District Manufacturing Firms Reported Robust Growth in February Fifth District manufacturing firms saw robust growth in February, according to the results from the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. T he composite manufacturing index jumped from 14 in January to 28 in February, the second highest value on record , driven by increases in shipments, orders, and employment. The wages index remained in positive territory at 23, while the available skills metric dropped from -10 in January to -17 in February. Despite greater difficulty finding......(read more)

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Powell: Fed members will be taking another look at rate projections

Policymakers need to be on guard for imbalances in the financial system, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said....(read more)

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How long can Mick Mulvaney serve as CFPB Acting Director?

Mick Mulvaney’s appointment by President Trump as CFPB Acting Director became effective on November 25, 2017 upon Richard Cordray’s resignation (which became effective at midnight on November 24).  Accordingly, as of March 1, Mr. Mulvaney will have served as Acting Director for 95 days.  President Trump has not yet announced his nominee for CFPB Director,... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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Redfin Housing Demand Index Posted Its Highest January Reading to Start the Year

With mortgage rates and home prices expected to rise and nearly one in five homes selling above list in January, buyers contending for a diminishing supply of homes can expect a competitive year. The post Redfin Housing Demand Index Posted Its Highest January Reading to Start the Year appeared first on Redfin Real-Time ....(read more)

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US core capital goods orders fall for second straight month

New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods fell for a second straight month in January and shipments barely rose....(read more)

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Tom Lee: The 10-year Treasury yield could be as high as 4% in 18 months

That's in line with what nominal GDP looks like, the co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors says....(read more)

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U.S. core capital goods orders fall for second straight month

WASHINGTON, (Reuters) - New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods fell for a second straight month in January and shipments barely rose, suggesting a slowdown in business spending on equipment after robust growth in 2017....(read more)

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New insurance policy provides landlords coverage for evictions

TOWN SQUARE | The American Apartment Owners Association (AAOA) offers LeaseGuarantee, a new program that reimburses owners for up to $10,000 for unpaid rent, property damage and legal fees incurred during eviction proceedings....(read more)

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Fed Chairman Powell: Market volatility won't stop more rate hikes

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed recent market volatility and said the Fed is on track for more rate hikes....(read more)

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Treasuries Threat Looms While Taper Tantrum Memories Linger in Asia

Bloomberg Treasuries Threat Looms While Taper Tantrum Memories Linger in Asia Bloomberg When 10-year Treasury yields jumped to 3 percent back in 2013 after then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled an end to quantitative easing, Asian bonds and currencies were clobbered in an episode dubbed the "taper tantrum." This time around ... and more »...(read more)

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Homebuilder Toll Brothers profit beats on higher demand

(Reuters) - Toll Brothers Inc reported on Tuesday a first-quarter profit that beat analysts' estimates, as it sold more luxury homes at higher prices, mainly in the Western United States....(read more)

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Your mortgage application may trigger competitors to tempt you with other offers

An industry group says consumers are often misled and exposed to abusive practices....(read more)

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Powell Heads to Congress With Fed Facing Riskier Post-Yellen World

Bloomberg Powell Heads to Congress With Fed Facing Riskier Post-Yellen World Bloomberg Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's embrace of his predecessor's gradual approach to tightening monetary policy is about to be tested. Since Powell accepted President Donald Trump's nomination almost four months ago, the near-term outlook has ... and more »...(read more)

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Housing Inventory Tracking

Update: Watching existing home "for sale" inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing. And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing Bottom is Here . And in 2015, it appeared the inventory build in several markets was ending , and that boosted price increases.  I don't have a crystal ball, but watching inventory helps understand the housing market. The graph below shows the year-over-year change for non-contingent inventory in Las......(read more)

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Fed's Quarles says it's been 'quite some time' since the economy looked this good

Further interest rate increases are likely forthcoming as the U.S. economy revs up, Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles said Monday....(read more)

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Quarles, An Assessment of the U.S. Economy

Speech At "Promoting Sustained Growth: Policy Tensions and Risks" 34th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C....(read more)

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Freddie Mac Prices $981 Million Multifamily K-Deal, K-073

Freddie Mac Prices $981 Million Multifamily K-Deal, K-073...(read more)

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Fenton: Expect High, Stable Levels of Volatility in 2018

Fenton: Expect High, Stable Levels of Volatility in 2018 Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- Expect more stable levels of volatility in 2018, although they will still be high, says Clark Fenton, CIO at Agilis Investment Management. He told Daybreak Europe's Nejra Cehic and Caroline Hepker that fundamentals caused the market ......(read more)

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U.S. 10-year Treasury yield keeps backing away from 3% as focus turns to Powell

U.S. 10-year Treasury yield keeps backing away from 3% as focus turns to Powell...(read more)

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Redfin Survey: 35% of Recent Homebuyers Bid on a Home Before Seeing it in Person

SEATTLE, Feb. 26, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- (NASDAQ: RDFN)-- Thirty-five percent of people who bought a home last year said they made an offer without first seeing it in person, according to a late-2017 survey commissioned by to Redfin (www.redfin.com), the next-generation real estate......(read more)

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Fed's Bullard says 'substantially' higher rates risk overly tight policy

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - An era of low productivity growth and high world demand for safe assets may be anchoring central bank policy rates at a low level, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Monday....(read more)

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Chicago Fed "Index Points to Little Change in Economic Growth in January"

From the Chicago Fed: Index Points to Little Change in Economic Growth in January The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked down to +0.12 in January from +0.14 in December. emphasis added This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967. Click on graph for larger image. This suggests economic activity was above the historical trend in January (using the three-month average). According to the Chicago Fed: The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: ......(read more)

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Stock futures rise as Powell takes center stage

(Reuters) - U.S. index futures pointed to a strong start for Wall Street on Monday, buoyed by gains for stock markets worldwide and the belief that new Fed chair Jerome Powell will keep the U.S. central bank on a steady course of monetary tightening....(read more)

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How the new tax law might affect home buyers who are retired

REAL ESTATE MATTERS | Now you'll only be able to deduct interest on the first $750,000 of the mortgage instead of $1 million....(read more)

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Surging bond yields to pinch home owners and retirees

A surge in bond yields that sent stock markets skidding from record highs may have ripple effects outside Wall Street, as home ownership costs rise and nest eggs shrink....(read more)

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A bond expert thinks investors are in 'denial' about soaring yields, which could crack 4% this year

SIT Investment Associates' Bryce Doty sees higher rates creating dangerous headwinds for stocks....(read more)

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Bond Traders Step Back From 3% to Watch Powell Navigate Fedspeak

Bloomberg Bond Traders Step Back From 3% to Watch Powell Navigate Fedspeak Bloomberg Bond traders came the closest in four years to a 3 percent yield on the 10-year Treasury note. Whether it breaches that level may be determined by how new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell handles the limelight. Powell, who took over from Janet ... and more »...(read more)

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Fed's Williams Says He Sees Case for a Rate Hike in the 'Near Future'

Bloomberg Fed's Williams Says He Sees Case for a Rate Hike in the 'Near Future' Bloomberg Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said he favors three or four interest-rate increases this year and policy makers should make a move soon. "It makes sense to think about three or four rate increases in 2018," Williams told ... and more »...(read more)

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GE says it may face U.S. action over subprime mortgage operations

NEW YORK (Reuters) - General Electric Co faces potential action by the U.S. Justice Department over allegations that its GE Capital unit and now defunct WMC Mortgage Corp unit violated U.S. law in connection with subprime mortgages, according to a regulatory filing on Friday....(read more)

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Lawler: "Census: Population Growth Slowed Slightly in 2017: Immigration Uncertainty Clouds Outlook"

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Census: Population Growth Slowed Slightly in 2017: Immigration Uncertainty Clouds Outlook At the end of last year the Census Bureau released its estimate of the US population for July 1, 2017 and its updated estimates for previous years (the so-called "Vintage 2017" estimates). As of July 1, 2017 Census estimated that the US resident population totaled 325,719,178, up 2,313,062 (or 0.71%) from the upwardly-revised estimate for July 1, 2016. The estimated population increase for 2017 was slightly lower than the 2,366,096 estimated gain in 2016, reflecting......(read more)

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Inflation-Vexed Bond Traders Are Unconvinced by Hawkish Fed Talk

Bloomberg Inflation-Vexed Bond Traders Are Unconvinced by Hawkish Fed Talk Bloomberg The Federal Reserve may think it's sounding more hawkish these days, yet the debt markets don't quite buy it. Traders are pricing in less than the three quarter-point rate hikes that officials have signaled as likely this year, and the market is still ... and more »...(read more)

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Freddie Mac February 2018 Insight

Freddie Mac February 2018 Insight...(read more)

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House Prices: NAR Median Prices vs Case-Shiller Index

During the housing bubble and subsequent bust, I noted that the median house price could be distorted by the mix of houses sold. I preferred to use the repeat sales indexes from the FHFA, Case-Shiller and Corelogic (and others). Now that most of the distortion from the bubble is behind us, I thought I'd take a look at the median (and mean) house price data for existing home sales from the NAR, compared to the Case-Shiller National index. The first graph show the NAR existing home sales median and mean prices since 1999 (Not Seasonally Adjusted), compared to Case-Shiller (Seasonally Adjusted). ......(read more)

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Permits Grow Across Most States Over 2017

Over the twelve months ending in December 2017, the total number of single-family permits issued nationwide reached 817,319. This is 9.6% ahead of its level over the first twelve months of 2016, 745,525. The results from the SOC are similar, single-family permits over the first twelve months of 2017, 817,700 are 8.9% ahead of their level over the same period... Read More ›...(read more)

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Fed sees rate hikes on track; continued U.S. growth

WASHINGTON, (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve, looking past a recent stock market sell-off and concern about inflation, said it sees steady growth continuing and no serious risks on the horizon the might pause its planned pace of rate hikes....(read more)

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Fed sees economy past full employment but with only 'moderate' wage gains

Fed policymakers see an economy that may be past full employment, market prices that are high and overall growth that continues to gather steam....(read more)

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