Goldman: December Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill: We estimate that nonfarm payrolls increased 175k in December , somewhat below consensus of +190k. While labor market fundamentals appear solid, we expect a deceleration from the pace of job gains in October and November, which benefitted from a sharp employment rebound in hurricane-affected states. Our forecast also reflects a modest drag from winter storms around the December survey period. We forecast a one-tenth decline in the unemployment rate to 4.0% ...We estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.3%......(read more)

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