Goldman: November Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill: We estimate that nonfarm payrolls increased 225k in Novembe r, above consensus of +195k. In addition to a firm pace of underlying job growth, our forecast reflects some additional normalization in hurricane-affected regions, as well as above-trend retail job growth associated with the early Thanksgiving. The arrival of over 200k Puerto Ricans in Florida may also boost payroll growth this month . We estimate the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% , as the brisk downtrend in recent months seems due a pause. For......(read more)

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