Goldman: September Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill: We estimate that nonfarm payroll growth slowed to +50k in September , below consensus of +80k and the 3-month average pace of +185k. Our forecast reflects the widespread flooding and power outages caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which affected over 10% of the population and caused over $100bn in damages. The impact on tomorrow's report is highly uncertain, but our base-case assumes a significant impact of -125k that partially offsets continued job growth in the rest of the country. We also expect the hurricanes to ......(read more)

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