Residential Fixed Investment Reaches Near-Decade High

Final estimates of first quarter 2017 GDP growth (revised up two-tenths of a percentage point to 1.4%), show that housing's share of gross domestic product (GDP) was unchanged at 15.6%. The home building and remodeling component-residential fixed investment (RFI)-increased 0.1 percentage point to 3.6% as a share of GDP.  The first-quarter expansion of RFI added 0.48 percentage point to the... Read More ›...(read more)

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Rising homeowner rates could have implications for renting

These factors are contributing to the slight increase in the homeownership rate – and whether it's likely to continue, U.S. News reports....(read more)

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Wells Fargo Unsettles Mortgage Bond Market by Holding Back Funds

Bloomberg Wells Fargo Unsettles Mortgage Bond Market by Holding Back Funds Bloomberg Wells Fargo & Co. surprised investors this week by withholding more than $90 million due to buyers of pre-crisis residential mortgage-backed securities. The bank said it invoked its right as trustee to hold back funds to cover legal costs. The 20 ... and more »...(read more)

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Chicago PMI Increases in June, Highest in Three Years

From the Chicago PMI: June Chicago Business Barometer at 65.7 vs 59.4 in May The MNI Chicago Business Barometer rose to 65.7 in June from 59.4 in May , the highest level in over three years. ... "June's MNI Chicago Business Barometer Survey is a testament to firms' expectations of a busy summer. With Production and New Orders touching levels not seen in three years, rising pressure on backlogs and delivery times has led to higher optimism among firms both in general business conditions and the local economy," said Shaily Mittal, Senior Economist at MNI Indicators. emphasis added This was well ......(read more)

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Consumer sentiment hits lowest level since November

Economists expected the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index to hit 94.5 in June, according to Thomson Reuters....(read more)

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US consumer spending up just 0.1%, despite income gain

Americans enjoyed a healthy increase in income last month but didn't spend much of the gain....(read more)

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Percentage of Homebuyers That Made an Offer Sight-Unseen Up From 2016

In May 2017, Redfin commissioned a survey of 3,350 U.S. residents in 11 metropolitan areas who in the past year bought or sold a home, attempted to do so or plan to do so soon....(read more)

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A Yellen replacement is unlikely to throw Fed off course, says Bullard

When President Donald Trump officially embarked upon his presidential career in January, deafening whispers began to circulate around Washington that it soon could spell the end of another highly prized title: that of Federal Reserve chair....(read more)

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Treasury report on U.S. financial system recommends extensive mortgage lending reforms

The U.S. Treasury Department recently issued a report titled “A Financial System That Creates Economic Opportunities-Banks and Credit Unions.”  In addition to recommended changes for the CFPB, the report devotes substantial attention to the residential mortgage industry. The report cites the size of the housing market, contributing approximately 18% to U.S. GDP, and constituting a... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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House Appropriations Bill Seeks CFPB Reforms

Today, the House Appropriations Committee’s Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government will mark up its draft fiscal year 2018 appropriations bill.  The draft bill contains multiple provisions to reform the CFPB, which include: Eliminating the CFPB's supervisory authority; Removing the CFPB's UDAAP authority; Repealing the CFPB's authority to place restrictions on arbitration; and Creating... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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Could Your Property Be Worth More If You Tear Down Your Home?

In some cities with land shortages, zoning might allow an apartment or condo building to go up where a small home once stood. This makes teardowns appealing. The post Could Your Property Be Worth More If You Tear Down Your Home? appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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Reis: Office Vacancy Rate "flat" in Q2 at 16.0%

Reis released their Q2 2017 Office Vacancy survey this morning. Reis reported that the office vacancy rate was unchanged at 16.0% in Q2, from 16.0% in Q1. This is down from 16.1% in Q1 2016, and down from the cycle peak of 17.6%. From Reis Economist Barbara Denham: Office Vacancy Holds Steady at 15.8%; Rents Increase 0.5% in the Quarter. Vacancy Increases in 42 U.S. Metros, but only 10 See Effective Rent Decline. The Office Vacancy Rate remained flat in the second quarter at 16.0%. Asking rents increased 0.4% in the quarter and only 1.6% since the second quarter of 2016 – the lowest......(read more)

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Tax reform is coming in September, Trump economic advisor Gary Cohn says

Gary Cohn, President Donald Trump's director of the National Economic Council, told MSNBC tax reform is coming in September regardless of health care bill....(read more)

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Freddie Mac AIMI Shows Moderation Consistent with Expectations

Freddie Mac AIMI Shows Moderation Consistent with Expectations...(read more)

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Markets may seem confused over ECB policy, but most bets suggest tightening in 2018

Investors and markets may have shown some confusion regarding the future policy of the European Central Bank this week, but they are certain that monetary stimulus will be reduced throughout 2018....(read more)

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US jobless claims rise, but the labor market is still buoyant

First-time claims for state unemployment benefits were expected to total 240,000 in the most recent week, down from the 241,000 claims reported in the previous week....(read more)

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America's 20 Hottest Real Estate Markets for June 2017

There's no end in sight for the housing shortage and prices are pushing higher than ever, according to a preliminary analysis of June data by realtor.com. The post America’s 20 Hottest Real Estate Markets for June 2017 appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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Bond Report: Global bond yields march higher as easy-money era shows age

A global bond selloff continued on Thursday, driving up some yields to their highest levels in more than a month, as investors digested messages form central banks this week on rolling back easy-money policies....(read more)

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Zillow Forecast: "May Case-Shiller Forecast: Expect the Cooldown to Continue"

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for April were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Svenja Gudell at Zillow: May Case-Shiller Forecast: Expect the Cooldown to Continue On the heels of a larger-than-expected slowdown in April, Zillow anticipates Case-Shiller data to show a continued cooling in home price growth in May almost across the board, with prices even falling slightly from April in one key index. Annual growth in all three main indices – the 10-city Composite,......(read more)

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Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate increased in Q2 2017

Reis reported that the vacancy rate for regional malls was 8.1% in Q2 2017, up from 7.9% in Q1, and up from 7.9% in Q2 2016. This is down from a cycle peak of 9.4% in Q3 2011. For Neighborhood and Community malls (strip malls), the vacancy rate was 10.0% in Q2, up from 9.9% in Q1, and up from 9.8% in Q2 2016. For strip malls, the vacancy rate peaked at 11.1% in Q3 2011. Comments from Reis Economist Barbara Byrne Denham: The Retail Vacancy Rate increased 0.1% in the second quarter to 10.0%. Asking rents increased 0.4% in the quarter that saw new stores opening on par with the number......(read more)

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Labor Shortage Squeezes Real-Estate Developers

About two-thirds of the contractors who are struggling with labor shortages say it has become a challenge to finish jobs on time. The post Labor Shortage Squeezes Real-Estate Developers appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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Kumar: Don't Ignore Yellen's Valuation Warning

Kumar: Don't Ignore Yellen's Valuation Warning Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- Some valuations of defensive stocks are looking expensive, says Ben Kumar, investment manager at Seven Investment Management. He spoke to Daybreak Europe's Caroline Hepker and Markus Karlsson after Federal Reserve chair Janet ... and more »...(read more)

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Draghi Tried to Be Cautious But Spooked the Market Anyway - Bloomberg

Bloomberg Draghi Tried to Be Cautious But Spooked the Market Anyway Bloomberg Mario Draghi just got evidence that his call for "prudence" in withdrawing European Central Bank stimulus applies to his words too. The euro and bond yields surged on Tuesday after the ECB president said the reflation of the euro-area economy creates ... and more »...(read more)

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Pending home sales tumble as supply crisis hits sales

The pending home sales index from the National Association of Realtors dropped 0.8 percent month-to-month and is now 1.7 percent lower than May 2016....(read more)

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'What's the rush' on interest rate hikes, asks Fed's Kashkari

With inflation low and wages showing little sign of an upward surge, the Federal Reserve should not be raising interest rates, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday....(read more)

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Trulia: Falling Inventory Has Led To Hurried Homebuying

Falling Inventory is Pushing Homes off the Market at Record Pace...(read more)

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One in Three Recent Homebuyers Made an Offer Sight-Unseen—Up from Nearly One in Five a Year Ago

In May 2017, Redfin commissioned a survey of 3,350 U.S. residents in 11 metropolitan areas who in the past year bought or sold a home, attempted to do so or plan to do so soon. The post One in Three Recent Homebuyers Made an Offer Sight-Unseen-Up from Nearly One in Five a Year Ago appeared first on Redfin Real-Time ....(read more)

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The Wall Street Journal: Now it's easier to buy a home even if you have student loans

Fannie Mae and several states offer aid for young people who want to be homeowners....(read more)

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Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in April

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.5% year-over-year in April It has been more than ten years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 2.4% above the previous bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is still about 13.9% below the bubble peak. The year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now just over 5%. In April, the index was up 5.5% YoY. In the earlier post , I graphed nominal house prices, but it is......(read more)

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Yellen: Banks 'very much stronger'; another financial crisis not likely 'in our lifetime'

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said Tuesday that banks are "very much stronger" judging by how major institutions did in the recent stress tests....(read more)

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Watch Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Lord Nicholas Stern discuss world economic issues

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will sit down in London with Lord Nicholas Stern, president of the British Academy, to discuss global economic issues....(read more)

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Will the Hispanic Homeownership Gap Persist?

Will the Hispanic Homeownership Gap Persist?...(read more)

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Yields rise with European debt after upbeat Draghi comments

NEW YORK, June 27 U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday, in sympathy with European government debt weakness, after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi fueled expectations that the ECB is closer to announcing a reduction of stimulus....(read more)

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Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q2 to 4.4%

Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 4.4% in Q2 2017, up from 4.3% in Q1, and up from 4.2% in Q2 2016.  This is the highest vacancy rate since Q3 2013 (although the increase has been small).  The vacancy rate peaked at 8.0% at the end of 2009. From Reis: Shaking off a sluggish first quarter, the apartment market showed marked improvement in the second quarter as all but two of 79 metros saw effective rents increase or stay flat in the quarter. The average effective rent grew 1.1% in the quarter and 3.0% over the year. The vacancy rate increased from 4.3% to......(read more)

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A Mystery Fed Candidate Won a Seat at the FOMC Table, Then Walked Away

Bloomberg A Mystery Fed Candidate Won a Seat at the FOMC Table, Then Walked Away Bloomberg Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, leaves after a news conference in Washington on June 14, 2017. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg. Who got an invitation from Janet Yellen to sit at the most exclusive economic-policy table in the ... and more »...(read more)

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Consumer confidence gains in June, topping estimates

The Consumer Confidence Index rose in June to 118.9, despite expectations for it to drop, The Conference Board announced Tuesday....(read more)

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Wells Fargo to sell commercial insurance business

(Reuters) - Wells Fargo & Co said on Tuesday it agreed to sell its commercial insurance business to private insurer USI Insurance Services, as the third-largest U.S. bank plans to focus on core banking products and services....(read more)

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Real Estate Ponzi Scheme Unearthing Leads to Guilty Plea

The former owner of a "We Buy Ugly Houses" franchise admitted in federal court recently that she mislead investors, misused investors' money, forged investors' signatures on deeds, and ran what amounted to a real estate ponzi scheme....(read more)

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Here's how to invest in real estate â€" think Warren Buffett-style, not shopping malls

REITs can yield big profits, but only if you know which ones to buy, says our call of the day....(read more)

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Americans' Confidence in Economy Remains Barely Positive

Americans' views of the economy were unchanged last week, with Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index remaining slightly positive....(read more)

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Draghi speaks of 'strengthening and broadening recovery' in euro zone, but says stimulus must remain

President Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank said Tuesday that the central bank will have to be prudent to gradually adjust its monetary stimulus to the economic recovery....(read more)

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A Republican and a Democrat team up to split Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Senators Bob Corker and Mark Warner are considering legislation that would break up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to Bloomberg....(read more)

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House member launches fintech lending investigation

Congressman Emanuel Cleaver, II announced last week that he had launched an investigation into small business financial technology (fintech) lending by sending a letter to the CEOs of several fintech small business lenders.  The letter includes 10 questions and asks for responses to be provided by no later than August 10, 2017. In the letter,... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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Here's the worrisome 'conundrum' taking place in the bond market right now

Long-term Treasury bond yields fell Monday, with the 30-year bond yield hitting 2.682 percent its lowest level since Nov. 9....(read more)

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Trade associations voice support for commission to run CFPB

A group of 22 trade associations sent a letter last week to the Chairmen and Ranking Members of the Senate and House Appropriations Committees expressing their “strong support” for the creation of a five-member bipartisan commission to lead the CFPB.  The trade associations include the American Bankers Association, American Financial Services Association, Consumer Bankers Association,... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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HUD and Census Bureau Report New Residential Sales in May 2017

WASHINGTON - The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Census Bureau today jointly announced the following new residential sales statistics for May 2017....(read more)

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Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in May, Lowest since May 2008

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in May was at 0.87%, down from 0.92% in April.  Freddie's rate is down from 1.11% in May 2016. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. This is the lowest serious delinquency rate since May 2008. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  Click on graph for larger image Although the rate is still declining, the rate of decline has slowed. Maybe the rate will decline another 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points or so to a cycle bottom,......(read more)

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Art Cashin warns about a 'wild card' remark on a 2008 financial crisis repeat

"I would prefer not to see a Lehman-like moment again," Art Cashin says....(read more)

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71 Percent of Homeowners Believe It's a Good Time to Sell; Economic and Financial Confidence Dips: Realtors® HOME Survey

WASHINGTON (June 26, 2017) — Existing housing inventory has declined year over year each month for two straight years, but new consumer findings from the National Association of Realtors® offer hope that the growing number of homeowners who think now is a good time to sell will eventually lead to more listings. That's according to NAR's quarterly Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) survey 1 , which also found that fewer renters think it... Read More...(read more)

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Chicago Fed "Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in May"

From the Chicago Fed: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in May Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved down to –0.26 in May from +0.57 in April . Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from April, and three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in May. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined to +0.04 in May from +0.21 in April. emphasis added This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three......(read more)

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