Goldman: April Payrolls Preview

A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill: We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased by 200k in April, somewhat above consensus of +190k. Our forecast reflects encouraging labor market fundamentals and a favorable swing in the weather, partially offset by slowing job growth in the retail sector. We estimate the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.5%, based on our expectation that household employment will hold on to its sharp year-to-date gains. Finally, we expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.3% month over month and 2.7% year over year, reflecting the......(read more)

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