Merrill on Possible March Fed Hike

Expectations of a March rate hike have increased significantly over the last few days. Some market based measures now show an 80%+ chance of a rate hike. A few excerpts from Merrill Lynch research: The market has moved dramatically in the past two days to price in a hike at the March meeting. This was partly triggered by hawkish commentary from regional Fed presidents, including NY Fed President Dudley yesterday. While we agree that the chances of a hike in March have increased, given the Fed commentary, we are sticking with our baseline forecast for the Fed to stay on hold at the next......(read more)

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