February Retail Sales and Tax Refunds

I've mentioned this before ... although the consensus is for a 0.2% increase in retail sales in February (to be released on Wednesday), it seems likely retail sales will disappoint due to delayed tax refunds. An excerpt from a Merrill Lynch note this morning: Based on the aggregated BAC credit and debit card data, retail sales ex-autos declined 0.2% mom seasonally adjusted in February. ... We think there is a specific reason for the contraction in sales in February: tax refunds were delayed. This is due to a change in tax law which calls for the IRS to wait until February 15th to issue......(read more)

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