LaVorgna: 60% chance of a September rate hike on strong jobs report, not 80%

Joseph LaVorgna said that the chances the Fed will raise interest rates in September could be 60 percent on a strong jobs report....(read more)

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Why the Fed probably won't like the jobs report Friday

If the Fed is looking for confirmation from the labor market that the time is ripe for a rate hike, August could provide little solace....(read more)

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Mohamed El-Erian is right: The Fed hikes in September, economists say

Economists on Wednesday backed Mohamed El-Erian's call that the Fed is likely to hike rates if Friday's jobs report is strong....(read more)

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Fed's Kashkari wants to see core inflation rise before any rate hike

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Wednesday he is looking for core inflation to tick up before the central bank raises interest rates. "I'm very interested to see core inflation," Kashkari said, according to the Wall Street Journal. "We haven't seen it yet. That's what I'm looking for." The Minneapolis Fed President is not a voting member of the Fed's policy committee this year....(read more)

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Inequality is widening, even in real estate

Where you live can have a big impact on your future prosperity....(read more)

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U.S. housing market turnover to improve over coming year: Reuters poll

(Reuters) - Turnover in the U.S. residential property market is set to rise over the coming year, according to a strong majority of analysts polled by Reuters who also forecast the pace of house price gains to remain relatively steady this year and next....(read more)

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Op-Ed: Stop it! There is no national housing bubble

There's no national housing bubble set to take down the economy, but real estate in some major markets might be in trouble, says Ron Insana....(read more)

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U.S. Housing Market Holding Steady

U.S. Housing Market Holding Steady...(read more)

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We're actually not married to this big homeowner tax break: Mortgage Bankers CEO

Changing the mortgage deduction could be worth considering, says Mortgage Bankers Association CEO David Stevens....(read more)

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Real estate gains new market prominence starting Thursday

Real estate will be given its own unique investing class on Sept. 1, separating it from the gang within the financials sector....(read more)

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How a low-flying, spy plane is setting your apartment rent

CoStar Group is using a military-grade reconnaissance plane to gather about twice as much construction data as its competitors. Here's how it works....(read more)

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Sales of million-dollar homes swoon

Sales of million-dollar homes are softening. It's not a correction, but the result of stock volatility and an oversupply of luxury homes....(read more)

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Serious Delinquency Rate Declined in July, Lowest Since May 2008

Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in July to 1.30%, down from 1.32% in June. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.63% in July 2015. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  This is the lowest rate since May 2008. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%. Click on graph for larger image Although the rate is generally declining, the "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%.  The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.33......(read more)

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Bill Gross: The Fed has mastered market manipulation

The Federal Reserve, with its bargain-basement interest rates, is manipulating financial markets and hurting capitalism, bond king Bill Gross says....(read more)

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US Treasurys lower ahead of ADP jobs report

U.S. sovereign bond prices were lower Wednesday as bond investors looked ahead to the ADP private sector payroll report....(read more)

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Fed Hawks Consign Treasuries to Worst Month Since June Last Year

Fed Hawks Consign Treasuries to Worst Month Since June Last Year Bloomberg Treasuries headed for their worst month since June of last year after Janet Yellen and a chorus of Federal Reserve officials said the case for higher interest rates had strengthened. Start your day with what's moving markets. Get our markets daily ... and more »...(read more)

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Demographics Will Impact the Real Estate Market

Where and how boomers choose to settle will play a major role in housing's future...(read more)

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Airbnb Income: How It Can Mess With Your Refi

Homeowners who rent rooms are facing additional scrutiny when applying for loans. The post Airbnb Income: How It Can Mess With Your Mortgage ‘Refi' appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com ....(read more)

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Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in June

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.1% year-over-year in June The year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now around 5%. In June, the index was up 5.1% YoY. In the earlier post , I graphed nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).  Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $275,000 today adjusted for inflation (37%). ......(read more)

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U.S. banks see higher net income, expand lending in second quarter - FDIC

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. banks saw their net income increase $584 million, or 1.4 percent, compared to the second quarter of last year in a sign of strength for the sector, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation....(read more)

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Consumer confidence hits 101.1 in August, versus 97 estimate

Consumer confidence hits 101.1 in August, versus 97 estimate|| 103901924...(read more)

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U.S. Economic Confidence Steady This Summer

Americans' confidence in the economy has hit a standstill this summer, with the Gallup U.S. Economic Confidence Index holding at -12 for the third week in a row....(read more)

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How you should learn to stop worrying about the bond bubble and love the market

A bubble may be forming in a number of debt markets but investors can easily cope with concerns over it popping, according to Bank of New York Mellon....(read more)

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US home price gains ease in June: S&P/Case-Shiller

The pace of U.S. home price gains slowed in June from the previous month, but growth remained above the two-year average....(read more)

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We're not in a housing bubble, Redfin economist says

Redfin's chief economist, Nela Richardson, says the housing market is contracting, not expanding into a bubble....(read more)

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German Inflation Unexpectedly Slows as ECB Prepares for Meeting

German Inflation Unexpectedly Slows as ECB Prepares for Meeting Bloomberg German inflation unexpectedly slowed in August in a sign that the European Central Bank may need to do more to meet its goal for price growth in the 19-nation euro area. The rate fell to 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent the previous month, the Federal ... and more »...(read more)

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Fannie Mae Releases July 2016 Monthly Summary

The monthly summary report contains information about Fannie Mae s monthly and year-to-date activities....(read more)

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Fischer Says Fed Must Set Its Rate Path Based on Incoming Data

Bloomberg Fischer Says Fed Must Set Its Rate Path Based on Incoming Data Bloomberg Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said incoming economic data will determine the trajectory of interest-rate increases and expressed optimism that productivity growth will rebound. "The work of the central bank is never done, and I don't ... and more »...(read more)

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Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in July

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and all cash sales for selected cities in July. On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down year-over-year in all of these markets (except Springfield). Short sales and foreclosures are down in all of these areas. The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. As investors continue to pull back, the share of all cash buyers continues to decline.   Short Sales Share Foreclosure Sales Share Total "Distressed" Share All Cash Share July- 2016 July- 2015 July- 2016......(read more)

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Fed Is Headed for Shallow Rate Path This Decade, Study Shows

Bloomberg Fed Is Headed for Shallow Rate Path This Decade, Study Shows Bloomberg Some at the U.S. central bank may still be too optimistic about how high interest rates can rise in the longer run, based on new Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco research. Start your day with what's moving markets. Get our markets daily newsletter....(read more)

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Corporate debt issuance smashes another record

August set a record for U.S. corporate investment grade bond deals, possibly paving the way for more dividends....(read more)

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Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.8% in June, Up 5.3% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted . From Black Knight: Black Knight Home Price Index Report: June 2016 Transaction • U.S. Home Prices Up 0.8 Percent for the Month; Up 5.3 Percent Year-Over-Year • At $265K, the U.S. HPI is up 32.6 percent from the market's bottom and is within just 1.1 percent of a new national peak •......(read more)

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The Fed may have given us the reason for a pullback

With the downside follow through on Friday, the market may be signaling that the long awaited "correction" has begun. While I never look to the substance of the news to provide me with directional cues, many will likely blame this pullback on the Yellen's speech this past Friday....(read more)

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Check out this map where the housing bubble is biggest

The average national home price in June was $265,000 - within just 1.1 percent of a record high....(read more)

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Higher rates? I don't care, as long as Yellen keeps her word: Portfolio manager

This is how interest rates and the stock market can go both higher, says a top portfolio manager at ClearBridge....(read more)

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Commercial Real Estate Expansion Foreseen

WASHINGTON (August 29, 2016) — Buoyed by a steadily improving labor market and strong demand for multifamily housing, commercial real estate activity should remain on an upward trajectory, with a growing share of it is expected to be in smaller markets, according to the National Association of Realtors® quarterly commercial real estate forecast . National office vacancy rates are forecast by Realtors® to fall 1.5 percent to 10.4 percent over the coming year as employment gains boost demand for office space. The... Read More...(read more)

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U.S. consumer spending rises in July; inflation remains tame

WASHINGTON, Aug 29 (Reuters) - - U.S. consumer spending increased for a fourth straight month in July amid strong demand for automobiles, pointing to a pickup in economic growth that...(read more)

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Black Knight Home Price Index Report: June 2016 Transactions

Black Knight Home Price Index Report: June 2016 Transactions<br/>http://ift.tt/2c3gCmj...(read more)

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How New Home Buyers Financed Their Homes in 2015

NAHB analysis of the Census Bureau Survey of Construction (SOC) data shows that non-conventional forms of financing new single-family home purchases remained elevated in 2015, accounting for more than a third of the market. Looking at new single-family homes started in 2015, the South Atlantic division was most dependent on non-conventional financing, with its share exceeding 40% of the market.... Read More ›...(read more)

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Fed could 'realign' market's rate-hike forecast, economist says

Some investors are overlooking signs that a Fed interest rate hike is coming, economist Carl Tannenbaum says....(read more)

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More Millennials Are Financially Supporting Their Parents

Some are caring for both dependent children and aging parents, requiring them to juggle financial goals....(read more)

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Bond Traders See Governments Succeeding Where Central Banks Fail

Bloomberg Bond Traders See Governments Succeeding Where Central Banks Fail Bloomberg There have been so many false alarms warning of inflation's imminent return over the past decade that it's hard to keep track. There was the initial unease after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to zero, and another scare when it started buying ... and more »...(read more)

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Zero rate 'euphoria' has triggered a bond shock indicator

Stellar inflows into fixed income this week has caused one investment bank to warn of a "bond shock" in the coming months....(read more)

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What you need to know about a home equity line of credit

Banks are feverishly pushing home equity lines of credit. Be careful....(read more)

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Yellen and FOMC accused of 'Fedequivocation' as hike jitters resurface

Policymakers at the U.S. Federal Reserve have been accused of using ambiguous and evasive language after several days of commentary....(read more)

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Fed's Fischer: Yellen's speech consistent with possibility of 2 interest-rate hikes this year

Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Friday that Janet Yellen's speech was consistent with possible two hikes this year...(read more)

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U.S. jobs data to test case for rate hike

DUBLIN (Reuters) - U.S. jobs data top economic readouts from around the world next week as global markets begin to return to business as usual following a typically quiet August with the calm broken on Friday by comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen....(read more)

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Comments on Home Sales in July

CR Note: When the New and Existing home sales reports were released this week, I was out of town and didn't post any graphs. Here are a few graphs and comments on the reports. The new home sales report for July was very strong at 654,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) - the highest since October 2007 - however combined sales for April, May and June were revised down by 12 thousand SAAR. Sales were up 31.3% year-over-year (YoY) compared to July 2015. And sales are up 12.4% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2015. Click on graph for larger image.......(read more)

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If Yellen is bullish on economy, this may be why

As businesses governments cut spending this spring, American consumers kept the U.S. economy moving ahead, but just barely....(read more)

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Yellen Imagines a Future Where Fed Tinkers With Inflation Target - Bloomberg

Bloomberg Yellen Imagines a Future Where Fed Tinkers With Inflation Target Bloomberg Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen raised the possibility that future policy makers might increase their inflation target and broaden the types of assets they can buy to enhance their ability to counteract a severe recession. While stressing that the ... and more »...(read more)

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