Goldman Sachs on Rate Hike Odds: 35% in June, 35% in July

In a research note released this morning, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote: Superforecasting Fed Policy "... 35% probability for a hike in June, a 35% probability for July, a 20% probability for September-our previous modal forecast-and a 10% probability for either a later hike or a cut." This suggests a cumulative forecast probability of 70% by the July meeting, and 90% by September. The Fed has definitely changed expectations. For amusement ... early in my career, as a scientist at SAIC in San Diego (my undergraduate degree is in chemistry), I was invited to a sales meeting......(read more)

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