Fed's Daly calls for more fiscal help to get the economy out of a 'big ditch'

Daly likened the rescue funding so far to a bridge that has helped growth recover somewhat but still needs to be extended....(read more)

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Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased in August

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency increased to 3.32% in August, from 3.24% in July. The serious delinquency rate is up from 0.67% in August 2019. This is the highest serious delinquency rate since October 2012. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%. Click on graph for larger image By vintage , for loans made in 2004 or earlier (2% of portfolio), 5.79% are seriously delinquent (up from 5.57% in July). For loans made in 2005 through 2008......(read more)

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I'm a financial planner, and there are 2 home-buying mistakes I've seen during the pandemic - Business Insider

I'm a financial planner, and there are 2 home-buying mistakes I've seen during the pandemic    Business Insider...(read more)

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Changes will be made for next Trump vs. Biden debate 'to maintain order' after ugly first round

The group that sponsors the presidential debates says it will make format changes to the next showdown between President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden "to maintain order."...(read more)

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Near-zero interest rates may be needed for up to 3 years, says Dallas Fed's Robert Kaplan

"Obviously, we're doing extraordinary actions, not just the Fed funds rate ... but we need to because it's a crisis," Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan told CNBC....(read more)

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These cities are at risk of a housing bubble as home prices inflate worldwide

Despite a global recession brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, home values around the world continue to rise, with some markets at risk of overheating....(read more)

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Q2 GDP Revised up to -31.4% Annual Rate

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised), and GDP by Industry (Annual Update), Second Quarter 2020 Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 31.4 percent in the second quarter of 2020 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent. The "third" estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the decrease in real GDP was 31.7 percent.......(read more)

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Private sector jobs up 749,000 in September, vs 600,000 estimate, ADP says

Companies added jobs at a faster-than-expected pace in September due in good part to a surge in manufacturing hires, according to a report Wednesday from ADP....(read more)

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Christine Lagarde hints at a major tweak for the ECB's inflation target

The European Central Bank could be about to tweak its main policy objective as it combats the economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis....(read more)

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Treasury yields mixed; debate, coronavirus treatment, stimulus in focus

U.S. government debt prices were mixed Wednesday morning as investors digested the first presidential debate and positive coronavirus treatment news, with a host of economic data due shortly....(read more)

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Fed's Williams sees about three years for full U.S. recovery

(Reuters) - The U.S. recovery from the coronavirus-linked recession has been more robust than expected, a top Federal Reserve policymaker said on Tuesday, though he added it could be about three years before the economy regains its strength....(read more)

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‘We're at War': New York City Faces a Financial Abyss - The New York Times

‘We're at War': New York City Faces a Financial Abyss    The New York Times...(read more)

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JPMorgan predicts a 10% rally for the S&P 500 and names the U.S. sectors to watch

Industrial and construction material stocks will be among the sectors that will benefit as U.S. markets hit fresh highs over the next year, JPMorgan Private Bank's Grace Peters told CNBC Tuesday....(read more)

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New York bankruptcies reportedly surge 40% during pandemic

Bankruptcies in the New York City region have surged 40% during the coronavirus pandemic compared with the same time a year ago, according to Bloomberg....(read more)

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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.8% year-over-year in July

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July ("July" is a 3 month average of May, June and July prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 4.8% Annual Home Price Gain in July The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.8% annual gain in July , up from 4.3% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual......(read more)

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Democrats' new $2.2 trillion bill includes a second round of $1,200 stimulus checks

House Democrats have unveiled a new coronavirus stimulus bill. This time, $1,200 checks are still included, but with some changes. See how much money you may receive under the new terms....(read more)

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MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 6.87%"

Note: This is as of September 20th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 6.87% The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 6 basis points from 6.93% of servicers' portfolio volume in the prior week to 6.87% as of September 20, 2020 . According to MBA's estimate, 3.4 million homeowners are in forbearance plans . ... "The share of loans in forbearance continues to decline and is now at a level not seen since mid-April. Many homeowners with GSE loans are......(read more)

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If the presidential debate has a clear winner, it could show up in a big market move

If the presidential debate Tuesday results in a clear winner, there could be a much bigger market reaction than after past debates....(read more)

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The U.S. is 'not in a good place' as daily coronavirus cases grow beyond 40,000, Fauci says

"There are states that are starting to show an uptick in cases and even some increase in hospitalizations in some states," Dr. Anthony Fauci said on Monday....(read more)

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Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Recovery Picks Up Steam" in September

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Recovery Picks Up Steam Texas factory activity expanded in September for the fourth month in a row following a record contraction due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose nine points to 22.3, its highest reading in two years. Other measures of manufacturing activity point to above-average growth this month. The new orders index advanced five points to 14.7, and the growth rate of orders index held......(read more)

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Share of Non-Conventional Financing Increased in 2019

NAHB analysis of the 2019 Census Bureau Survey of Construction (SOC) data shows that, nationwide, the share of non-conventional financing for new home sales accounted for 35.0% of the market, while conventional financing dominated the market at 65.0%. In 2018, share of non-conventional financing was 28.6% of the market while conventional financing accounted for 71.4% of the market share. Non-conventional... Read More › The post Share of Non-Conventional Financing Increased in 2019 first appeared on Eye On Housing ....(read more)

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Commercial Real Estate Scarring

Here is an article related to some of the commercial real estate (CRE) scarring from the pandemic recession. From the Financial Times: Destruction of value in US real estate revealed by appraisal data . The article suggests some CRE valuations have declined 25% since early this year. We will also see a decline in new CRE construction next year based on the recent architect billings, from the AIA: "Architectural billings in August still show little sign of improvement" And hotel occupancy is down 32% year-over-year , and RevPAR (Revenue per available room) is down over 50% year-over-year. The......(read more)

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September Vehicle Sales Forecast: 5% Year-over-year Decline

From Wards: U.S. Light Vehicle Sales & Inventory Forecast, September 2020 (pay content) Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for September (Red). Sales have bounced back from the April low, but are still down year-over-year. The Wards forecast of 16.2 million SAAR, would be up 6.6% from August, and down 5.2% from September 2019. This would put sales in 2020, through September, down about 18% compared to the same period in 2019....(read more)

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Charts of the Week: Federal debt, middle-class income, rental housing distress

In this edition of Charts of the Week: COVID-19's impact on the federal debt and renters' ability to pay; plus the middle-class income growth decline. COVID-19 AND THE FEDERAL DEBT In a paper discussed at this week's Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) conference, the authors (Alan Auerbach, William Gale, Byron Lutz, and Louise Sheiner)…             ...(read more)

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It's not entirely clear how the government will pay for Trump's $200 Medicare cards

"Under my plan, 33 million Medicare beneficiaries will soon receive a card in the mail containing $200 that they can use to help pay for prescription drugs," Trump said in a speech....(read more)

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U.S. Buyers Face Significant Inventory Shortages

A lack of housing supply has led to heated market conditions, as median listing prices last week grew at a record 11.1% year-over-year, according to realtor.com The post U.S. Buyers Face Significant Inventory Shortages appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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Taxes are likely to go up for the wealthy in these nine states

Lawmakers in nine states are proposing higher taxes on the wealthy to help fill growing budget holes from the pandemic, and the list is likely to grow, according to a legislative group....(read more)

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Home remodeling during Covid-19—'expect it to cost 50% more and take 50% longer,' says finance expert

Doing a major home renovation can be a nightmare, especially during Covid-19. After several remodeling projects, finance expert Sam Dogen finally "wisened up to the game that some general contractors play to extract as much money from homeowners as possible." Here's what he learned....(read more)

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Mnuchin and Powell back jobless aid and small business loans

Mnuchin and Powell back jobless aid and small business loans    Yahoo News Watch live - Powell and Mnuchin testify before the Senate on the economic recovery    CNBC Hundreds of billions of dollars in unused aid could be reallocated, say Fed Chair Powell and Secretary Mnuchin    NBC News Mnuchin and Powell urge support for unemployment relief and small business loans    WKRN News 2 Mnuchin, Powell say some $380 billion in unused aid could help U.S. economy    Reuters View Full Coverage on Google News...(read more)

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U.S. core capital goods orders increase more than expected in August

U.S. core capital goods orders increase more than expected in August    Reuters UK...(read more)

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Lawler: Serious Delinquency Rate on FHA-Insured SF Loans Up Again in August

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Serious Delinquency Rate on FHA-Insured SF Loans Up Again in August While the FHA's "official" monthly loan performance report for August is not yet available on its website, data from the FHA's Early Warning System indicates that FHA's Early Warning System indicate that the serious delinquency rate on FHA-insured single-family loans increased to above 11% in August, an all-time monthly high. Delinquency rates in the EWS do not match those in the official report, but the two delinquency rates tend to move together over time. Delinquency Rate, FHA-Insured SF......(read more)

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Home Prices Just. Keep. Climbing. National Median Now Up 14% from Last Year

For the four-week period ending September 20, home prices were up 14%, pending sales rose 29%, and new listings were 6% higher than the same period in 2019. The post Home Prices Just. Keep. Climbing. National Median Now Up 14% from Last Year appeared first on Redfin | Real Estate Tips for Home Buying, Selling & More ....(read more)

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TREASURIES-Yields dip on mixed economic data, stalled stimulus - Reuters

TREASURIES-Yields dip on mixed economic data, stalled stimulus    Reuters...(read more)

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Looking for a Home in the Suburbs? Good Luck, So Is Everyone Else

The coronavirus pandemic has been blamed for hordes of folks trading the cities for the suburbs. But it didn't create the trend-it only accelerated it. The post Looking for a Home in the Suburbs? Good Luck, So Is Everyone Else appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 32% Year-over-year

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 19 September U.S. hotel occupancy was nearly flat from the previous week, according to the latest data from STR. 13-19 September 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019): • Occupancy: 48.6% (-31.9%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$95.84 (-28.9%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$46.54 (-51.6%) ... Demand rose slightly (+0.3%), and the highest occupancy markets were once again those housing displaced residents from Hurricane Laura and western wildfires , with California South/Central showing the highest level in......(read more)

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A Roth IRA may help fund your home purchase. Here are the pros and cons

While you might be able to use up to $10,000 in Roth IRA earnings toward the purchase of a home - without paying taxes or penalties on the withdrawal - it's important to know the rules that apply....(read more)

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Fed's Powell says evictions, mortgage defaults may rise without more fiscal aid - Reuters

Fed's Powell says evictions, mortgage defaults may rise without more fiscal aid    Reuters...(read more)

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Watch live — Powell and Mnuchin testify before the Senate on the economic recovery

The hearing will mark the the second time both men have appeared together before Congress this week to discuss their response to Covid-19....(read more)

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Weekly jobless claims total 870,000, vs 850,000 expected

First-time claims for state unemployment benefits were expected to total 850,000 for the most recent week, down slightly from the 860,000 claims reported for the previous week....(read more)

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Retailers have started paying rent again but are still fighting with their landlords

The percentage of rent payers almost doubled to 65% from June to July, according to a study by the National Retail Federation and investment bank PJ Solomon. ...(read more)

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Treasury yields fall with coronavirus, Fed testimony; jobless claims in focus

U.S. government debt prices were higher Thursday morning following another tech-driven sell-off on Wall Street, while concerns for the global economic recovery amid mounting coronavirus cases continued to weigh on sentiment....(read more)

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Coronavirus pandemic fuels affordability crisis for homebuyers

Fierce competition for a limited supply of homes for sale has caused a surge in prices. Now, potential buyers are facing a national affordability crisis....(read more)

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Fed's Evans says he doesn't fear 2.5% inflation, or even above

(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at zero until the economy reaches full employment, inflation is "sustainably" at 2% and the Fed is confident it will overshoot that goal, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said Wednesday....(read more)

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Fed's Rosengren says economy is more fragile than data suggests

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said Wednesday that he is less optimistic about the economic outlook than many of his colleagues, despite encouraging economic data over the summer. ...(read more)

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AIA: "Architectural billings in August still show little sign of improvement"

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architectural billings in August still show little sign of improvement Business conditions remained stalled at architecture firms during August as demand for design services continued to decline , according to a new report from the American Institute of Architects (AIA). The pace of decline during August remained at about the same level as in July and June, posting an Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 40.0 (any score below 50 indicates a decline in firm billings).......(read more)

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New Homes Account for 3.7% of the US Energy Consumption

The residential sector, including single-family, multifamily, and manufactured housing, accounts for about 21.2% of the US energy consumption, according to the 2020 Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Review. New homes built since 2000 account for just 3.7% of the total energy consumed in the U.S., according to NAHB's analysis of the 2015 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) data from... Read More › The post New Homes Account for 3.7% of the US Energy Consumption first appeared on Eye On Housing ....(read more)

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Treasury yields climb ahead of data and Fed's Powell testimony

U.S. government debt prices were lower Wednesday morning as investors monitored economic data and further testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell....(read more)

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Home Values, Owners' Equity Rise in 2Q20

As the novel coronavirus took hold in the second quarter, households' market values continued to rise, per second quarter 2020 Federal Reserve Flow of Funds report. In the second quarter, the aggregate value of all household mortgages rose by $80 billion to $10.6 trillion, while the aggregate value of the households' market values, i.e., that of all owner-occupied real estate... Read More › The post Home Values, Owners' Equity Rise in 2Q20 first appeared on Eye On Housing ....(read more)

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MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 6.93%"

Note: This is as of September 13th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 6.93% The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 8 basis points from 7.01% of servicers' portfolio volume in the prior week to 6.93% as of September 13, 2020 . According to MBA's estimate, 3.5 million homeowners are in forbearance plans . ... "The share of loans in forbearance has dropped to its lowest level in five months, driven by a consistent decline in the GSE share in......(read more)

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An Eviction Moratorium without Rental Assistance Hurts Smaller Landlords, Too

As the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have grown increasingly dire for millions of Americans, the federal government, along with a growing number of state and local governments, have taken measures to protect nd tenants from the threat of foreclosure and eviction. In March 2020 the CARES Act imposed a federal moratorium on evictions,…             ...(read more)

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