Trump Declares Coronavirus A Public Health Emergency And Restricts Travel From China

The coronovirus has been declared a public health emergency in the U.S. and Trump Administration officials say the govenment is taking measures to contain the spread of the virus....(read more)

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What the FICO credit score changes mean for first-time homebuyers

FICO credit scores are used by most lenders to help determine a buyer's mortgage interest rate. If you're in the market for a new home, here's what to know about FICO 10....(read more)

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Major U.S. airlines cancel China flights as government takes action

All three major U.S. airlines announced the cancellation of flights to mainland China on Friday after the U.S. State Department elevated a travel advisory over concerns about the coronavirus....(read more)

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Q1 GDP Forecasts: 1.0% to 2.7%

From Merrill Lynch GDP growth is likely to slow to 1.0% qoq saar in 1Q 2020 . [Jan 31 estimate] emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.5% for 2020:Q1 [Jan 31 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.7 percent on January 31. [Jan 31 estimate] CR Note: These very early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 1.0% and 2.7% annualized in Q1....(read more)

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Fed Chairman Powell thought it was 'terrific' that a senator defended him against Trump

Email exchanges among central bankers and their staff show that some of them are watching Trump's continued hectoring of the Fed to lower rates, and aren't pleased with what they see....(read more)

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Germany wants to conclude Brexit talks by year's end: minister

Germany wants to do all it can to conclude outstanding negotiations with Britain on its future ties with the European Union by the end of this year, Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said on Friday....(read more)

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How to buy a house despite student debt

Many people entering the traditional home-buying years already have debt – student loans, of course. Still, it's possible to get a mortgage while juggling the loans, experts say....(read more)

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Q4 2019 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

The BEA has released the underlying details for the Q4 initial GDP report this morning. The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 10.1% annual pace in Q4. Investment in petroleum and natural gas exploration decreased in Q4 compared to Q3, and was down 19% year-over-year. Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. Investment in offices decreased in Q4, but was up 3% year-over-year. Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was down about 32% ......(read more)

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More than 9 million homeowners could save big money on a mortgage refinance as rates hit lowest point since 2016

About 9.4 million borrowers could save an average $272 per month if they were to refinance to a lower rate, according to calculations by Black Knight Inc....(read more)

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U.S. consumer spending rises steadily; income tepid

U.S. consumer spending rose steadily in December, but tepid income gains pointed to moderate consumption growth this year, which could confine the economy to a slow growth lane....(read more)

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Interest Rates Can Also Price Households Out of the Market

Last Friday's Eye on Housing blog post announced the release of NAHB's "priced out" estimates for 2020, showing that-if the median new home price goes up by $1,000-it prices 158,857 U.S. households out of the market, in the sense that they would qualify for a standard mortgage to purchase the home before the price increase, but not afterward. The same... Read More ›...(read more)

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US Treasury yields rise after briefly sending a recession signal

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday morning as traders continued to digest comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and monitor the outbreak of the coronavirus....(read more)

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FICO Is About To Change Credit Scores. Should You Worry?

FICO is changing how it calculates credit scores, which affect things like getting loans. The firm says 40 million Americans' scores will drop by more than 20 points, and a similar number will rise....(read more)

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WHO declares China coronavirus that's killed 171 a global health emergency

The last time WHO declared a global health emergency was in 2019 for the Ebola outbreak....(read more)

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Homeownership Rate Reaches Six-Year High

According to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS), the U.S. homeownership rate increased to 65.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019.  This is 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous quarter reading of 64.8% and the highest the rate has been since the last quarter of 2013.  Even so, the homeownership rate remains well below the 25-year average rate... Read More ›...(read more)

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Stocks, oil tumble on fears virus to hurt China's economy

Global equity markets tumbled on Thursday as the death toll from the coronavirus outbreak in China hit 170, sending a closely watched bond indicator to invert and oil prices sharply lower on concerns about its impact on the world's second-largest economy....(read more)

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Economic growth looks even weaker this quarter, with virus now a wild card

Economic growth was expected to slow in the first quarter, due to Boeing's shutdown, but now the coronavirus threatens it even more....(read more)

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HVS: Q4 2019 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q4 2019. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.  However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey. This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. he Census Bureau is investigating the differences between the HVS, ACS and decennial Census, and analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply or household......(read more)

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 216,000

The DOL reported : In the week ending January 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000 , a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 12,000 from 211,000 to 223,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,500, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 3,000 from 213,250 to 216,250. emphasis added The previous week was revised up significantly. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for......(read more)

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US GDP rose 2.1% in the fourth quarter, as expected

U.S. gross domestic product was expected to increase by 2.1% in the fourth quarter, in line with the previous quarter....(read more)

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What's next for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet?

The Federal Reserve will keep injecting cash into the banking system and buying billions of dollars of Treasury bills for a few more months, but it aims to start dialing back on both in the second quarter, Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday....(read more)

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Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: House Price Gains "Primed for an Upswing"

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for November were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: November Case-Shiller Results and December Forecast: Primed for an Upswing The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 3.5% year-over-year in November (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 3.2% in October. Annual growth was also up from September in the smaller 10-city index (to 2%, from 1.7%) and in the 20-city index (to 2.6%, from 2.2%). ......(read more)

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Coronavirus outbreak poses risk to U.S. Fed's economic outlook

The outbreak of a new virus that originated in the central-Chinese city of Wuhan is likely to slow China's economic growth at least in the near term and could hurt its trading partners around the world....(read more)

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Fed keeps interest rates steady, offers no new balance sheet guidance

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday at its first policy meeting of the year, with the head of the U.S. central bank pointing to continued moderate economic growth and a "strong" job market, and giving no sign of any imminent changes in borrowing costs....(read more)

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Traders maintain bets on Fed pausing on policy till later in year

U.S. short-term interest rate futures dropped but only slightly on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve wrapped up its January meeting without changing interest rates or signaling it was in any rush to do so....(read more)

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Fed holds rates steady, affirms commitment to higher inflation

The FOMC concluded its two-day meeting Wednesday amid market expectations that the central bank would hold rates steady....(read more)

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Fed boosts interest rate on bank reserves

The Fed's two-day meeting concluded with expectations that it might raise the interest it pays on excess bank reserves...(read more)

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Explainer: What the U.S. Federal Reserve is watching this year

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged when it wraps up its first policy meeting of the year on Wednesday....(read more)

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EU parliament gives final approval to Brexit deal

The European Parliament on Wednesday gave its final approval to Britain's divorce deal from the bloc, paving the way for Brexit to take place on Friday....(read more)

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The bond market is starting to get worried about a recession again

The yield curve is tightening again, with the gap between the three-month and 10-year Treasury notes less than 5 basis points Wednesday....(read more)

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Fed likely to keep interest rates on hold as coronavirus worries grow

The U.S. Federal Reserve will end its latest policy meeting on Wednesday with interest rates likely on hold, adjustments to its balance sheet under discussion, and China's widening coronavirus outbreak posing an unexpected risk to the global economy....(read more)

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December pending home sales fall 4.9% as supply hits a record low

Pending home sales, which measure signed contracts, not closings, dropped 4.9% in December compared with November, as the supply of homes hit a record low during the month....(read more)

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Blink and you miss it: The U.S. yield curve inverts again

A closely watched bond market phenomenon has again flashed yellow, but investors are loathe to give it much weight....(read more)

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Treasury yields edge lower ahead of Fed decision

U.S. government debt prices were slightly higher on Wednesday morning, as investors monitored the spread of the coronavirus and looked ahead to a rate decision by the Federal Reserve....(read more)

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Coronavirus, repo market and the reserve rate: What to watch this week from the Fed

Practically no one expects the central bank to move its benchmark borrowing rate until at least September....(read more)

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Countdown to recession: What an inverted yield curve means

NEW YORK - A dramatic rally in Treasuries this week led some key parts of the U.S. yield curve to reinvert, a signal that has traditionally been bearish for the U.S. economy....(read more)

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Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Rebounded in January

From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Rebounded in January Fifth District manufacturing activity rebounded in January, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index rose from -5 in December to 20 in January , as all three components- shipments, new orders, and employment- increased. Local business conditions also improved as this index saw its largest increase since February 2013. Manufacturers were optimistic that conditions would continue to strengthen in the coming months Survey results indicate that both employment and wages rose for survey......(read more)

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US consumer confidence jumps in January to 131.6, vs 128 expected

US consumer confidence jumps in January to 131.6, vs 128 expected<br/>https://ift.tt/2t3sIbNread more)

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US core capital goods orders post biggest drop in 8 months

New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods dropped by the most in eight months in December and shipments were weak, suggesting business investment contracted further in the fourth quarter and was a drag on economic growth....(read more)

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Treasury yields tick higher ahead of Fed meeting

U.S. government debt prices were lower Tuesday, following a rally for fixed income assets amid concerns over the Chinese coronavirus....(read more)

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For Fed, 'material reassessment' may be in eye of beholder

At a glance, the Federal Reserve has set a high bar for any change in interest rates this year: A "material reassessment" of the economic outlook would be required as set forth by U.S. central bank chief Jerome Powell....(read more)

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Asian shares, bond yields fall as deadly coronavirus spreads

Asian shares slipped again on Tuesday as China took more drastic steps to combat the coronavirus, while bond yields fell globally on expectations central banks would need to keep stimulus flowing to offset the likely economic drag....(read more)

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BlackRock's bond chief Rieder sees yields dropping further amid risks from virus and election

BlackRock has boosted its holdings at the long end of the Treasury curve and expects yields to go even lower in a flight-to-quality trade....(read more)

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U.S. stock rally faces major test as China virus spreads

The latest rally in U.S. stocks is facing a serious test, as the S&P 500 heads toward its worst loss in months on concerns over how the coronavirus will impact the global economy....(read more)

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Mortgage rates drop to 5-month low as coronavirus fears fuel the bond market

As fears over the coronavirus roil global financial markets, investors are rushing to the relative safety of the bond market, pushing rates down. The 30-year fixed mortgage loosely follows the yield on the 10-year Treasury....(read more)

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Improved Expectations of Housing Availability among Home Buyers

In the final quarter of 2019, home buyers are less likely (65%) to think housing availability will get harder (or stay the same) than in the final quarter of 2018 (72%).  Put another way, fewer home buyers expect housing availability to worsen.  On the contrary, the share of optimistic buyers expecting an easier home search process in the months ahead... Read More ›...(read more)

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FICO's new credit score model won't ding you for simply having student loans or a big mortgage

Your FICO credit score may soon be changing, but if you see a dip in the next year, it's probably not because of an existing mortgage or a high student loan balance. It's more likely based on your payment habits....(read more)

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Fed's first hurdle in 2020: Dispensing with 'QE Lite'

The Federal Reserve's bond portfolio is swelling again at a pace not seen since the "quantitative easing" heyday in the early 2010s. Prices for stocks and other risky assets are also rising at a fast clip - a state of affairs that a growing chorus of investors, economists and former Fed officials say is no coincidence, and potentially a problem....(read more)

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Wall Street slides as China virus concerns mount

Wall Street fell in a broad sell-off on Friday, as investors fled equities on growing concerns over the scope of the coronavirus outbreak, capping the S&P 500's biggest weekly decline in six months....(read more)

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U.S. Population Grows Slower

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the Annual Resident Population of the United States as of July 1, 2019 was estimated at 328.2 million, increasing by 1.6 million from the previous year. Additionally, there was a significant downward revision to the national population estimated for 2018, by 480 thousand, to 326.7 million, effectively reducing the growth rate estimated for that... Read More ›...(read more)

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