STR: Hotel RevPAR "Upcycle Over"

From Jan Freitag at HotelNewsNow: Consecutive RevPAR dips make it official: Upcycle over Let's look at what we know: RevPAR has now declined two months in a row-three months in the last year, and four months in the prior 13 months. Because everyone likes a record, we keep counting RevPAR growth months and are now at 112 out of the last 116 months. That 112 months count is the record we had wanted and deserved, right? But of course it is fuzzy math since it was already back in the golden days of September 2018 that RevPAR declined for the first time-102 months since the RevPAR rocket took off......(read more)

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Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.8% to 2.0%

From Goldman Sachs: [W]e lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +2.0% (qoq ar). (qoq ar). [Nov 27 estimate] emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 0.8% for 2019:Q4. [Nov 29 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.7 percent on November 27, up from 0.4 percent on November 19. [Nov 27 estimate] CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 0.8% and 2.0% annualized in Q4....(read more)

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ECB's Board Nominees Back Negative Rates, Warn of Side Effects

ECB's Board Nominees Back Negative Rates, Warn of Side Effects    Bloomberg...(read more)

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Share of New Homes with Decks Declines in 2018

Of the roughly 876,000 single-family homes started in 2018, 22.6 percent included decks, according to NAHB tabulation of data from the Survey of Construction (SOC, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau and partially funded by HUD). This is down over a full percentage point from he 23.8 percent recorded a year earlier. From 2005 to 2008, the share of new... Read More ›...(read more)

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The current bond yield stagnation mirrors late-1800s 'long depression,' economist suggests

The current "secular stagnation" for bond yields offers close parallels to the long depression of the late 1800s, according to TS Lombard Managing Director of Global Macro Dario Perkins....(read more)

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Treasury Yields May Trail GDP for Decades as US Debt Mounts: Deutsche Bank Strategist Jim Reid - Bloomberg

Treasury Yields May Trail GDP for Decades as US Debt Mounts: Deutsche Bank Strategist Jim Reid    Bloomberg...(read more)

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U.S. economy growing modestly, labor market still tight: Fed report

The U.S. economy expanded modestly from October to mid-November and the outlook for growth was generally positive while labor markets remained tight across the country, the Federal Reserve said in a report on Wednesday....(read more)

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Strong data, trade optimism propel Wall Street to record levels

Wall Street's main indexes hit record highs on Wednesday ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, as fresh data pointed to a resilient domestic economy, while investors remained optimistic about a resolution to U.S.-China trade tensions....(read more)

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Personal Income increased Slightly in October, Spending increased 0.3%, Core PCE increase 0.1%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for October: Personal income increased $3.3 billion (less than 0.1 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $12.6 billion (-0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $39.7 billion (0.3 percent). Real DPI decreased 0.3 percent in October and Real PCE increased 0.1 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. The October PCE price index......(read more)

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US durable goods orders rebound in October, rising 0.6%

American manufacturing has been hurt by a trade war with China and a slowing global economy. Overall October orders were better than economists had expected....(read more)

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US GDP rose 2.1% in the third quarter, vs 1.9% reading expected

U.S. third-quarter gross domestic product - the broadest measure of the U.S. economy - was expected to remain unrevised from its preliminary reading at 1.9%, down slightly from the 2% pace in the second quarter....(read more)

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Treasury yields move higher ahead of jobless numbers and the Fed's Beige Book

U.S. government debt prices were slightly lower Wednesday morning as traders monitored fresh economic data and developments in the U.S.-China trade war....(read more)

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Wall Street climbs to records, fueled by trade comments

U.S. stocks crawled higher on Tuesday, with each of the major Wall Street indexes notching a record high, as upbeat comments by President Donald Trump on trade talks eclipsed some softer-than-anticipated economic data....(read more)

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'Bomb Cyclone' Winter Storm Will Hit U.S. As Thanksgiving Nears, Forecasters Warn

Hurricane-force winds; blizzard conditions; heavy snowfall and a "bomb cyclone" on the West Coast: those are the dire predictions of weather forecasters....(read more)

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S&P 500 earnings swoon seen extending to fourth quarter

Earnings of companies in the benchmark S&P 500 index are expected to decline in the fourth quarter from the year-earlier period, which would mark a second straight quarterly profit drop, according to IBES data from Refinitiv....(read more)

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Fed's Brainard argues for capping interest rate levels during the next downturn

Brainard suggested using Treasury purchases to limit how high short- and medium-term government bond yields can rise....(read more)

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U.S.-China trade deal close, White House says, after negotiators speak by phone

The United States and China are close to agreement on the first phase of a trade deal, White House adviser Kellyanne Conway said on Tuesday, after top negotiators from the two countries spoke by telephone and agreed to keep working on remaining issues....(read more)

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FHFA Announces Maximum Conforming Loan Limits for 2020

FHFA Announces Maximum Conforming Loan Limits for 2020 ...(read more)

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U.S. goods trade deficit narrows sharply in October

The U.S. goods trade deficit fell sharply in October as both exports and imports declined, pointing to a continued reduction in trade flows that has been blamed on the Trump administration' "America First" policy....(read more)

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Home price gains accelerate in September, S&P Case-Shiller Index says

On a national level, prices rose 3.2% annually in September, up from a 3.1% gain in August, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index....(read more)

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Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan says the fourth-quarter economy is 'weak'

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan says the fourth-quarter economy is 'weak'<br/>https://ift.tt/34myJ0Lread more)

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China's Planned Dollar Bond Sets Aside U.S. Decoupling Worries

China's Planned Dollar Bond Sets Aside U.S. Decoupling Worries    Bloomberg...(read more)

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Trade groups respond to motion to dismiss lawsuit challenging Nevada law allowing applicant to rely on spouse's or former spouse's credit report

The three trade groups challenging an amendment to Nevada law that allows an applicant for credit with no credit history to request that the creditor deem the applicant's credit history to be identical to that of the applicant's spouse during the marriage have responded to the motion to dismiss their lawsuit filed by the Commissioner... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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Global Trade Momentum Rises for First Time in Four Months

Global Trade Momentum Rises for First Time in Four Months    Bloomberg...(read more)

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Rates will continue to stay low: Eastspring Investments

Rates will continue to stay low: Eastspring Investments ...(read more)

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Fewer than Half of Prospective Buyers Are Actively Looking for a Home

An NAHB poll* of American adults in the third quarter of 2019 revealed that 12% are planning a home purchase in the next 12 months.  Of that group, 44% are already actively engaged in the process of finding a home to buy, a smaller share than a year earlier when 47% of prospective buyers were engaged in the search process. ... Read More ›...(read more)

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Black Knight's First Look: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in October

From Black Knight: Black Knight's First Look: Strong Decline in October Mortgage Delinquencies; Refi Wave Pushes Prepayments to Highest Level in More than Six Years • The national delinquency rate fell to 3.39% in October, a nearly 7% decline from last year, and within 0.03% of the record low set in May 2019 • Serious delinquencies fell by 10,000 from September, while the number of loans in active foreclosure edged up slightly (+3,000) • Prepayment activity climbed another 16% in October to the highest level since May 2013 • Prepays are now up 134% year-over-year as refinancing homeowners......(read more)

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Treasury yields tick higher ahead of Powell speech

U.S. government debt prices were lower Monday morning, as investors awaited a speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell....(read more)

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World shares climb on trade hopes

World shares staged a cautious rally on Monday as investors held out for some progress in U.S.-China trade talks, while the dollar dipped after its latest rally on the back of strong U.S. economic data....(read more)

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The 10 Cities Where It's Becoming More Affordable to Buy a Home—and 10 Where It's Not

Buying a home is becoming more affordable in many real estate markets around the nation. We found where affordability is rising-and falling-the most. The post The 10 Cities Where It’s Becoming More Affordable to Buy a Home-and 10 Where It’s Not appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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A 'phase two' US-China trade deal looks less likely as countries struggle to reach 'phase one'

The 2020 election combined with the White House's reluctance to work with other countries to pressure Beijing are dimming hopes....(read more)

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CFPB to Assess TRID Rule's Effectiveness

The Dodd-Frank Act requires the CFPB to conduct an assessment of each "significant rule" adopted by the Bureau. The Bureau has determined that the TILA/RESPA Integrated Disclosure (TRID) Rule qualifies as a "significant rule." Assessment reports must be published no later than five years after the effective date of the rule being assessed. The TRID... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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U.S. banks cram for Fed risk test, with ripple effects in repo

New quarterly data from the biggest U.S. banks suggest that some will need to back away from short-term lending markets by year-end to avoid triggering requirements that they hold more capital....(read more)

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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 33 states in October

From the Philly Fed : The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for October 2019. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 42 states, decreased in seven states, and remained stable in one, for a three month diffusion index of 70. In the past month, the indexes increased in 33 states, decreased in 10 states, and remained stable in seven, for a one-month diffusion index of 46. emphasis added Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed: The coincident indexes combine ......(read more)

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Where the 2020 Presidential Candidates Stand on Affordable Housing

For the first time this election cycle, the Democratic candidates for president discussed the nation's affordable housing crisis during a debate. The post Where the 2020 Presidential Candidates Stand on Affordable Housing appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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Goldman sees 'baby bear' market for bonds in 2020 in a year of risks

Goldman Sachs sees a 'baby bear' market in bonds in 2020, with a moderate move up in yield, but a decent year for risky assets like stocks....(read more)

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Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.4% to 1.9%

From Merrill Lynch: Our 3Q tracking edged down to 1.8% from 1.9%. 4Q tracking remains at 1.5% . [Nov 22 estimate] emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.9% (qoq ar). [Nov 21 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 0.7% for 2019:Q4 . [Nov 22 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 0.4 percent on November 19, up from 0.3 percent on November 15. [Nov 19 estimate] CR Note: These early......(read more)

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Share of 5,000+ Square Foot Homes Down Slightly in 2018

According to the Census Bureau's Survey of Construction, the share of new homes started with 5,000 square feet or more of living space stood at 2.88 percent in 2018, down slightly from 3.08 percent in 2017. A total of 25,000 5,000+ square-foot homes were started in 2018, compared to 26,000 in 2107.   The slight decline in 5,000+ square foot homes... Read More ›...(read more)

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U.S. factory and services activity quicken in November: Markit

U.S. manufacturing output accelerated in November to its fastest pace in seven months and services activity also picked up more than expected, a survey of purchasing managers showed on Friday in a sign of the continued resilience of the U.S. economy in the face of the U.S.-China trade war and other headwinds....(read more)

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One Year Ago: "Is a Recession Coming?"

This is from one year ago: "Is a Recession Coming?" Recession calling is an annual ritual....(read more)

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Quarterly Gain for Custom Home Building

NAHB's analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates custom home building expanded during the third quarter of 2019. There were 56,000 total custom building starts during the third quarter of 2019, the highest quarterly total since the Great Recession. This marks a 6% gain over the third quarter 2018 total of 53,000. Over... Read More ›...(read more)

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Trump says trade deal with China is 'very close'

Trump says trade deal with China is 'very close'<br/>https://ift.tt/37yxnCfread more)

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Goldman Sees Baby Bond Bear Market, Cyclical Stock Rally in 2020

Goldman Sees Baby Bond Bear Market, Cyclical Stock Rally in 2020    Bloomberg...(read more)

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Trump's Fed Pick Judy Shelton Cast Doubt on Central Bank Independence

Trump's Fed Pick Judy Shelton Cast Doubt on Central Bank Independence    Bloomberg...(read more)

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Wall Street muted on doubts over progress in U.S.-China trade deal

The S&P 500 and Dow indexes treaded water on Thursday as mixed headlines on U.S-China trade relations and a diplomatic row over the Hong Kong protests added to uncertainty over the timing of a "phase one" deal....(read more)

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Here's why recent bond ETF outflows aren't as dire as investors think

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has seen notable outflows in recent weeks, but industry leaders say the bond market bull case is still intact....(read more)

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New Single-Family Home Size Trending Lower

New single-family home size trended lower during the third quarter of 2019 as interest rates remained low. According to third quarter 2019 data from the Census Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design and NAHB analysis, median single-family square floor area ticked up to 2,264 square feet. Average (mean) square footage for new single-family homes declined to 2,464 square... Read More ›...(read more)

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Cleveland Fed's Mester urges regulators to become more agile on cybersecurity risks

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said on Thursday that financial firms and regulators should be more agile and share information to better combat cybersecurity threats....(read more)

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Philly Fed Manufacturing shows "Overall Growth in November"

From the Philly Fed: Current Manufacturing Indexes Suggest Overall Growth in November Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to results from the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's broad indicators remained positive, although their movements were mixed this month: The indicator for general activity increased, but the new orders, shipments, and employment indicators decreased from their readings last month. The survey's future activity indexes remained positive, suggesting continued optimism about growth for the next six months. The diffusion ......(read more)

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US weekly jobless claims unchanged at five-month high

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits was unexpectedly unchanged at a five-month high last week....(read more)

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