Fed Funds Futures Now Show Two Cuts Fully Priced In This Year

Fed Funds Futures Now Show Two Cuts Fully Priced In This Year    Bloomberg Fed funds futures contracts extended their rally in Friday afternoon trading in New York and are now indicating more than half a percentage point of interest-rate ......(read more)

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New front in trade war means Fed's dry powder may get burned

The U.S. Federal Reserve's hesitance to react to world trade tensions may have been dealt a fatal blow Friday by President Donald Trump's surprise announcement of new tariffs on Mexico, levies that could slam investment and business confidence and leave little doubt the administration's combative stance is here to stay....(read more)

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Still Not on Recession Watch

Several readers have asked me if I'm on "recession watch". The answer is no. First, a slow growth economy is not a recession.  Since the Great Recession ended in 2009, we've seen several mini-slowdowns and even a few random quarters of negative GDP growth (but employment and other indicators stayed positive). Second, the tariffs on goods from China should not have a huge negative impact on U.S. GDP, however the announced tariffs on goods from Mexico appear more significant.   I'm relying on the analysis of others to estimate the size of the negative impact, but it doesn't......(read more)

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Congress Again Temporarily Extends National Flood Insurance Program

Congress has once again temporarily extended the National Flood Insurance Program. As previously reported, at the end of 2018 Congress temporarily extended the Program until May 31, 2019. The recent legislation (S.1693) extends the Program to June 14, 2019. The temporary extension provides time for the House of Representatives to vote on H.R. 2157, which... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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Size Matters: Tracking the Economy Through New-Home Square Footage

Small details about the housing market can say just as much about how well Americans, and the broader economy, are doing. The post Size Matters: Tracking the Economy Through New-Home Square Footage appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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California bill capping consumer loan interest rates clears Assembly

Last week, by a vote of 60 to 4 (with 16 not voting), the California Assembly cleared AB 539, which would change several aspects of the California Financing Law (CFL), including by setting new interest rate caps, imposing new rules governing loan duration, and prohibiting prepayment penalties.  For example, while the CFL does not set... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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Are you covered for a flood? It's time to check any risk for summer storm damage

The next six months are when the risk is greatest for major storms to develop and reach the U.S. Homeowners should evaluate their insurance coverage to make sure it's adequate - especially in case of flooding, experts say....(read more)

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New Federal Student Loan Interest Rates for 2019-2020 Announced

The Department of Education has announced the new federal student loan interest rates for 2019-2020.  For the first time in three years, interest rates on federal student loans will decrease.  Rates for Direct Subsidized and Unsubsidized Loans (for undergraduate students) will fall to 4.53 percent, down from 5.05 percent for the 2018-2019 academic year.   Rates... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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Vanishing Short-Volatility Structures May Slow Treasury Rally

Vanishing Short-Volatility Structures May Slow Treasury Rally    Bloomberg An options-based source of fuel for the Treasury market rally may be drying up. Short-volatility structures, made from options on Treasury futures, can add ......(read more)

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US inflation picks up in April as spending slows

U.S. consumer prices increased in April, which could allow the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for a while....(read more)

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New chart points to 'extremely overbought' conditions in bond market, suggests yields will bounce

Bespoke's Paul Hickey sees a compelling trend that suggests falling Treasury yields are temporary....(read more)

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Fed unlikely to respond to bond market calls for rate cuts, yet

The U.S. Treasury market has diverged from the Federal Reserve in painting a bleak picture of future U.S. economic growth and inflation, but the central bank looks unlikely to bend to the market's will anytime soon barring a notable turn for the worse....(read more)

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Summer of Fear May Push U.S. Yield to 1.5%, Ignite Yen Rally

Summer of Fear May Push U.S. Yield to 1.5%, Ignite Yen Rally    Bloomberg Be prepared for a summer of uncertainty, with the range of forecasts for Treasuries and the yen getting ever wider as U.S. President Donald Trump turns tariffs ......(read more)

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Wall St. slump continues on U.S.-China trade uncertainty

U.S. stocks lost ground again on Thursday, as conflicting comments on trade talks from President Donald Trump and Beijing reinforced investor nervousness that a lengthy battle could be in the offing and harm global growth....(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Slide Below 4% as the Trade War Buffets Markets

So far this year, the 30-year-fixed has averaged 4.26%, down from 4.54% in 2018. The post Mortgage Rates Slide Below 4% as the Trade War Buffets Markets appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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Merrill on May NFP: "A modest slowing in employment activity"

A few excerpts from a Merrill Lynch research note: We forecast nonfarm payroll employment growth of 180k in the May Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment report … If our nonfarm payrolls forecast proves correct, it would suggest a modest slowing in employment activity in May ... We see reasons for some slowing in employment activity in May. The latest escalation of trade tensions... Also, the cyclical slowdown in the auto sector. Elsewhere, we expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.6%...(read more)

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U.S. inflation much softer in first quarter; puts spotlight on Fed

U.S. inflation was much weaker than initially thought in the first quarter amid a sharp slowdown in domestic demand, which could cast doubts on the Federal Reserve's view that the benign price pressures were largely because of temporary factors....(read more)

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Fed's Clarida outlines conditions that would be needed for a change in rates

Clarida gave high marks to the economy and reiterated the Fed's position that it will base policy on data as it unfolds....(read more)

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A $4 Trillion Plan Could Make or Break Dreams of U.S. Homebuyers

A $4 Trillion Plan Could Make or Break Dreams of U.S. Homebuyers    Bloomberg Washington says a major change in the mortgage-backed securities market could make home loans more affordable nationwide....(read more)

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China Pulls Punches With Trump to Defend a Path for Trade Talks

China Pulls Punches With Trump to Defend a Path for Trade Talks    Bloomberg As China looks to face down President Donald Trump, its leaders find themselves in a bind: How can they show him they won't be pushed around without ......(read more)

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 215,000

The DOL reported : In the week ending May 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000 , an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 211,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,750, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 220,250 to 220,500. emphasis added The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The......(read more)

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Second reading on first-quarter GDP is up 3.1%, vs 3.0% growth expected

The second reading on first-quarter gross domestic product was expected to ease to 3.0% from the 3.2% preliminary reading....(read more)

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US Treasury yields tick higher amid recession fears

U.S. government debt prices were lower Thursday morning, as investors are closely monitoring developments in the bond market....(read more)

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Home Prices Higher in Portland As Growth Slows in the West

Home Prices Higher in Portland As Growth Slows in the West...(read more)

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Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Slower YoY Price Gains in April

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for March were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: March Case-Shiller Results and April Forecast: Home Buyers Hitting a Breaking Point? Looking ahead, Zillow's April Case-Shiller forecast is for continued modest slowdowns in annual home price growth across all three major indices. Annual U.S. home price growth is expected to fall to 3.6%. The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the......(read more)

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Falling Rates a Reason to Sell for Recession-Wary Stock Traders - Bloomberg

Falling Rates a Reason to Sell for Recession-Wary Stock Traders    Bloomberg Falling bond rates have been instrumental in driving the stock market higher in 2019, right? It's a bit more complicated than that....(read more)

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Rates on Construction Loans Back Off Slightly in the First Quarter

After rising throughout most of 2018, with one minor exception, interest rates on loans for residential acquisition, development, and construction (AD&C) backed off slightly in the first quarter of 2019, according to results from NAHB's latest AD&C survey. The NAHB survey showed average first quarter interest rates of 6.56 percent on land acquisition loans, 6.25 percent on loans for land... Read More ›...(read more)

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The market now thinks the Fed will cut rates twice by January 2020

Futures trading indicated a 63% chance of a September cut and a 62% probability of another easing by January, according to the CME's FedWatch tool....(read more)

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Tornadoes Again Strike Midwest With No End in Sight - Bloomberg

Tornadoes Again Strike Midwest With No End in Sight    Bloomberg Kansas City, Mo. (AP) -- A vicious storm tore through the Kansas City area, spawning tornadoes that downed trees and power lines, damaged homes and ......(read more)

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Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in April

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in April was 0.65%, down from 0.67% in March. Freddie's rate is down from 0.94% in April 2018. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. This is the lowest serious delinquency rate for Freddie Mac since December 2007. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  Click on graph for larger image I expect the delinquency rate to decline to a cycle bottom in the 0.4% to 0.6% range - so this is close to a bottom. Note: Fannie Mae will report......(read more)

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Morgan Stanley Says U.S. Yield Curve Now Clearly Spells Downturn

Morgan Stanley Says U.S. Yield Curve Now Clearly Spells Downturn    Bloomberg Make no mistake, the Treasury yield curve really is flashing recession angst -- and the trade war is merely a sideshow....(read more)

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Nearly Half of Prospective Buyers Are Actively House Hunting

Many people start thinking about a home purchase well in advance of actually engaging in the process of finding a home. In a national poll in the first quarter of 2019, 13% of adults reported planning a home purchase within the next year.  Of those prospective buyers, 46% are already actively involved in trying to find a home to buy. ... Read More ›...(read more)

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Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Was Moderate in May"

From the Richmond Fed: Fifth District Manufacturing Was Moderate in May Fifth District manufacturing activity was moderate in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index inched up from 3 in April to 5 in May , as shipments and new orders had fairly flat reading and the third component, employment, remained positive. Firms reported growth in spending and positive overall business conditions and remained optimistic about growth in the coming months. Survey results indicated that employment and wages grew in May, while the indicator for ......(read more)

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'Don't say we didn't warn you' - A phrase from China signals the trade war could get even worse

The biggest newspaper in China made a warning to the U.S. using an expression it only used twice in history, both of which involved full-on wars....(read more)

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Many millennials say buying a home may finally be within reach

A new study shows millennial first-time homebuyers feel financially ready to buy a home and are willing to cut back on spending to make it happen....(read more)

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Condo Prices Sliding in Boston

Condo Prices Sliding in Boston...(read more)

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Bond bulls get a boost as trade tensions fan recession fears

The global bond rally accelerated on Wednesday, sending 10-year U.S Treasury yields to 20-month lows, as investors fearful of the fallout from the Sino-U.S. trade war sold shares and scurried for the safety of German and U.S. government debt....(read more)

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Wall St. loses early gains as trade concerns abound

U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with initial gains giving way to declines as the likelihood of a prolonged trade war between the United States and China once again kept risk appetite in check....(read more)

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But seriously, how close are we to a fully digital mortgage?

If you're thinking about buying and financing a home in the next few years, strap in for a history of the mortgage industry and how you won't be getting your grandpa's mortgage....(read more)

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Morgan Stanley says economy is on 'recession watch' as bond market flashes warning

The stock market and economic outlook in the United States is "deteriorating," according to Morgan Stanley's chief stock strategist....(read more)

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Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues but Pace Slows"

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues but Pace Slows Texas factory activity continued to expand in May, albeit at a slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell six points to 6.3, indicating output growth decelerated from April. Most other measures of manufacturing activity also suggested slower expansion in May. The survey's demand indicators fell but remained positive: The new orders index slipped seven points to 2.4, and the growth rate......(read more)

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Mortgage-specific provisions in the CFPB's proposed debt collection rules

Continuing our coverage of the CFPB's proposed debt collection rules, this blog post will focus on a few provisions that pertain specifically to mortgage servicers. In part, the proposal continues the CFPB's efforts to harmonize mortgage servicing regulation (which generally promotes communication with consumers) and debt collection regulation (which generally restricts communication with consumers).  The... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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Explainer: Will China dump U.S. bonds as a trade weapon? Not so fast

Explainer: Will China dump U.S. bonds as a trade weapon? Not so fast ...(read more)

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Home price gains weaken yet again in March: S&P Case-Shiller index

National home prices rose 3.7% annually in March, down from 3.9% in February, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. The 10-City Composite rose 2.3% annually, down from 2.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite gained 2.7%, down from 3.0% in the previous month....(read more)

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Italy vs the EU? Markets spooked as Europe prepares for another budget showdown

The European Commission is set to review Italy's finances again on June 5....(read more)

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Britain's Hunt says pursuing no-deal Brexit would be "political suicide"

Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said it would be "political suicide" for Britain to pursue a no-deal Brexit, becoming the most senior figure vying to succeed Prime Minister Theresa May to rule it out and drawing a battle line with rival contenders....(read more)

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Tornado wreaks havoc on Dayton as millions lose power across Ohio

"It looks in areas like a war zone, some of the houses were completely moved off their foundations and gone," the mayor of Celina, Ohio, said....(read more)

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Big city growth stalls further, as the suburbs make a comeback

As we approach the end of the 2010s, the biggest cities in the United States are experiencing slower growth or population losses, according to new census estimates. The combination of city growth declines and higher suburban growth suggests that the "back to the city" trend seen at the beginning of the decade has reversed. These…                ...(read more)

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Manhattan Home Prices Fall Most Since 2010

Manhattan Home Prices Fall Most Since 2010    Bloomberg Manhattan home prices fell in April by the most in almost a decade. And buyers have pounced....(read more)

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Weak U.S. manufacturing underscores slowing economic growth

New orders for U.S.-made capital goods fell more than expected in April, further evidence that the economy was slowing after a growth spurt in the first quarter that was driven by exports and a buildup of inventories....(read more)

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