After slow start, tax refunds are ticking up, with the average check now more than $3,000

Individual refunds are now in positive territory year over year, as the average check rises to $3,143. That's up from $3,103 a year ago. Here's what you can expect....(read more)

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Strong Owner Household Formations in 2018

According to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS), the U.S. homeownership rate increased in the last quarter of 2018 and now stands at 64.8%. The national homeownership rate is on a sustainable upward trend, after dropping to a cycle low of 62.9% in the second quarter 2016. Compared to the peak of 69.2% by the end of 2004, the... Read More ›...(read more)

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U.S. economic growth in 2018 misses Trump's 3 percent target

The U.S. economy fell short of the Trump administration's 3 percent annual growth target in 2018 despite $1.5 trillion in tax cuts and a government spending blitz, and economists say growth will only slow from here....(read more)

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U.S. Consumer Comfort Rises as Personal Finance Outlook Improves

U.S. Consumer Comfort Rises as Personal Finance Outlook Improves    Bloomberg U.S. consumer expectations rose this week as a gauge of views approached a 17-year high, signaling improved sentiment after a five-week government ......(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Stay Subdued as Housing Reform Issues Grab the Spotlight

Mortgage rates were little changed, providing breathing room for would-be buyers as policymakers are increasingly taking an interest in housing matters. The post Mortgage Rates Stay Subdued as Housing Reform Issues Grab the Spotlight appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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Most millennial homeowners have buyer's remorse, a new survey shows

Millennials have been slow to enter the ranks of homeowners, thanks to the last recession and the housing crash that caused it. Now, as they age into marriage and parenthood, they are buying at a faster pace. Many, however, are regretting it. Nearly two thirds, or 63 percent of millennial homeowners surveyed by Bankrate.com said they had regrets about buying. That is more than any other age group and nearly double the regret rate of baby boomers....(read more)

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HVS: Q4 2018 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q4 2018. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.  However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey. This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers.  The Census Bureau is investigating the differences between the HVS, ACS and decennial Census, and analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant......(read more)

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This week's podcast: a discussion of the CFPB's annual report on servicemember complaints

Servicemembers are the subject of heightened legal protections.  In this week’s podcast, we discuss the CFPB’s annual report on servicemember complaints issued at the end of last month.  We look at the products that received the most complaints from servicemembers, the specific issues complained about, and the litigation and regulatory risks to consumer financial service... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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Brexit riddle goes on: May's deal, delayed no-deal or referendum?

The United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union in less than a month, yet there is still no ratified divorce deal so it faces three main options - swing behind Prime Minister Theresa May's deal, leave without a deal in late June or throw the question back to the people....(read more)

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 225,000

The DOL reported : In the week ending February 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 225,000 , an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 216,000 to 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 229,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 235,750 to 236,000. emphasis added The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image.......(read more)

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Fed's Clarida emphasizes 'patient' approach to further rate hikes

The remarks reflected recent Fed commentary that officials will take a patient approach to monetary policy....(read more)

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Ray Dalio, manager of the world's biggest hedge fund, lowers his odds of a recession

After seeing a "significant risk" of a recession only a month ago, Ray Dalio has now lowered his odds of downturn....(read more)

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Powell just wrapped up his Capitol Hill testimony — here's what experts are watching now

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's semiannual testimony to Congress gave Wall Street experts just what they wanted: a cool, collected central bank leader who preached patience over punch....(read more)

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U.S. Wage Growth Is ‘Higher Than We Think', Fed Researchers Say

U.S. Wage Growth Is ‘Higher Than We Think', Fed Researchers Say    Bloomberg U.S. workers are experiencing larger wage growth than you've been reading in the news. That's according to a new study by a group of researchers at the ......(read more)

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Theresa May gains two weeks' Brexit reprieve from British lawmakers

British Prime Minister Theresa May won a two week reprieve on Wednesday from British lawmakers, who postponed a threatened rebellion aimed at blocking a no-deal Brexit after she agreed to a possible delay to Britain's departure from the EU....(read more)

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U.S. Commerce Department to publish fourth-quarter GDP report Thursday

The U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report on Thursday at 08:30 a.m (1330 GMT) after it was delayed by a 35-day partial shutdown of the government that ended on Jan. 25....(read more)

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Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish    Bloomberg Toll Brothers Inc.'s new home orders dropped 24 percent in the fiscal first quarter, the steepest annual decline for the biggest U.S. luxury homebuilder since the ......(read more)

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Spring housing market could be 'coolest in recent years,' Realtor.com says

The supply of homes for sale is finally rising, but fewer buyers are able to afford these homes, and that could result in a much slower spring market....(read more)

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Oregon Set To Pass The First Statewide Rent Control Bill

The measure would limit rent increases to 7 percent annually, plus inflation, and offer renters more protection from eviction. Supporters celebrate as critics fear it will diminish housing options....(read more)

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Fed Chair Powell says balance sheet decision market is waiting for is 'close' to happening

Determining the size of the bond portfolio has been a key concern for investors nervous about how much further the Fed will tighten....(read more)

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Buying a home for the first time? Avoid these mistakes

A new report finds that first-time homebuyers are likely to offer more, and bid more times, than other buyers. What's more, first-timers were more likely to feel stretched beyond their budgets....(read more)

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Trade deficit in goods jumps 12.8 percent amid tariff battle

The U.S. trade deficit in goods jumped to end 2018 amid a jump in imports, a move that could cause fourth-quarter economic growth measures to be lowered....(read more)

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US Treasury yields move higher ahead of another Powell speech

U.S. government debt prices were lower on Wednesday morning, as investors awaited another speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell....(read more)

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You don't need a PhD anymore to read Fed's statements

The Fed's policy statements grew so complicated after the recession that standard gauges of readability suggested people needed four years of university or more to understand them....(read more)

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Fed's Bullard says not ready to call for a rate cut: Fox Business

(This Feb 22. story has been refiled to say 'a' rate cut not 'another' rate cut in first paragraph and headline)...(read more)

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Fed's Powell says 'no rush' to hike rates in 'solid' but slowing economy

The Federal Reserve is in "no rush to make a judgment" about further changes to interest rates, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told U.S. lawmakers on Tuesday as he spelled out the central bank's approach to an economy that is likely slowing....(read more)

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More married couples are living with roommates to save on the cost of housing

The share of married-with-roommate households today is "more than double the rate observed in 1995," according to real estate website Trulia. It's especially prevalent in areas with high housing costs....(read more)

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Fed chief says economic theory of unlimited borrowing supported by Ocasio-Cortez is just 'wrong'

An increasingly popular theory about progressives posits that the government can continue to borrow to fund social programs....(read more)

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Fed Chief Powell on mounting US deficit: It would be a 'very big deal' to not pay our bills when due

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell began his two-day semiannual testimony Tuesday before a Senate committee....(read more)

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Consumer confidence hits 131.4 in February, vs 124 expected

Consumer confidence increased in February to 131.4 from 121.7 in January, the Conference Board said....(read more)

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Powell warns of headwinds, says the Fed is prepared to 'adjust' on balance sheet unwind if needed

In his semiannual testimony, he noted that the Fed is watching the state of affairs closely and is prepared to adapt policy if warranted....(read more)

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Powell to Duck Taking Sides as Two Fed Camps Square Off on Rates

Powell to Duck Taking Sides as Two Fed Camps Square Off on Rates    Bloomberg Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will probably gloss over an emerging division among policy makers about what it will take for them to resume raising ......(read more)

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Home Depot forecasts poor 2019 earnings as U.S. housing momentum slows

Home Depot Inc projected 2019 earnings below Wall Street forecasts on Tuesday, as rising U.S. home prices discourage many Americans from buying new houses....(read more)

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More Home-Sellers are Dropping Their Prices Than in Previous Winters as Buyers Seize More Control of the Market

More than one in five homes for sale nationwide dropped its price in the last month. In Fresno it was two in five. More than any time in the past few years, 2019 is shaping up to be a good year for homebuyers. One way the market has shifted to buyers: More price drops. As […] The post More Home-Sellers are Dropping Their Prices Than in Previous Winters as Buyers Seize More Control of the Market appeared first on Redfin Real-Time ....(read more)

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Fed's Powell heads to Congress amid shifting landscape

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell worked hard to strengthen ties with Congress during his first year as head of the U.S. central bank, doubling the pace of meetings with lawmakers over his predecessors and courting Democrats and Republicans alike....(read more)

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Powell heads to Capitol Hill this week with a chance to ease the market's fears

Since October, the central bank chair has suffered a series of missteps and backtracks....(read more)

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Here's why it's a mistake to blame the Fed for the world's economic ills

The Fed should remain on course, ignore its critics and maintain its goals of maximum employment and price stability....(read more)

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Janet Yellen says Trump has a 'lack of understanding' of Fed policies and the economy

Yellen has taken plenty of hits from President Donald Trump. Now she's delivering a few of her own....(read more)

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Property Taxes by State – 2017

Property taxes vary widely across states both in terms of annual taxes paid as well as effective tax rates. In 2017, the difference between average real estate taxes paid by New Jersey and Alabama home owners was nearly $8,000. New Jersey continued its perennial distinction as having the highest average real estate tax bill per home owner ($8,485) as well... Read More ›...(read more)

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Inside Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's charm offensive on Capitol Hill

The Fed chair's outreach to Capitol Hill comes as the Fed could use a few friends in Washington. Since Powell began his campaign, the central bank has entered the crosshairs of the Trump White House and his job has been in jeopardy....(read more)

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A Higher Inflation Target Won't Make the Fed More Effective

A Higher Inflation Target Won't Make the Fed More Effective    Bloomberg Breaching the 2 percent threshold can't offset the lack of more pro-growth policies from Congress and the administration....(read more)

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Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues"

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues Texas factory activity continued to expand in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, slipped four points to 10.1, indicating a slight deceleration in output growth. Most other measures of manufacturing activity also suggested continued but slower expansion in February. The new orders index fell five points to 6.9, its lowest reading in more than two years. Similarly, the capacity utilization index fell......(read more)

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A Subprime Lender Tries the Ultimate Cut-Throat Deal

A Subprime Lender Tries the Ultimate Cut-Throat Deal    Bloomberg A bid for Provident Financial from a tiny rival would usually be laughed out of town. But the target's damaged credibility means it is vulnerable....(read more)

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Banks Sure Don't Look as If They Need Relief

Banks Sure Don't Look as If They Need Relief    Bloomberg Amid soaring profits, it's hard to see how regulation has hurt performance....(read more)

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Chicago Fed "Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in January"

From the Chicago Fed: Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in January Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.43 in January from +0.05 in December. One of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from December, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in January. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to a neutral reading in January from +0.16 in December. emphasis added This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month ......(read more)

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Trump will delay tariff increases on China, meet with President Xi

President Donald Trump announced on Sunday he will be delaying US tariffs on China and will be planning a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago to finalize the trade agreement....(read more)

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Buffalo, Grand Rapids and Omaha Are Now the Nation's Fastest Housing Markets

The typical home in these affordable, inland metros spends less than 30 days on market. Buffalo, New York; Grand Rapids, Michigan and Omaha, Nebraska-all areas where the typical home costs less than the national median-were home to the fastest housing markets in the country in January. Contrast that list of metros with the fastest markets […] The post Buffalo, Grand Rapids and Omaha Are Now the Nation’s Fastest Housing Markets appeared first on Redfin Real-Time ....(read more)

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Most Economists See U.S. Recession by 2021, Survey Shows

Most Economists See U.S. Recession by 2021, Survey Shows    Bloomberg More than three-quarters of business economists expect the U.S. to enter a recession by the end of 2021, though a majority still estimate the Federal Reserve ......(read more)

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Former Fed Chief Paul Volcker rips 'culture of the financial system' and its focus on profits

In an interview published Monday with veteran industry analyst Mike Mayo, Volcker said bank boards largely have misplaced priorities....(read more)

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Trump says inclined to extend trade deadline, to meet China's Xi soon

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that there was a very good chance the United States would strike a deal with China to end their trade war and that he was inclined to extend his March 1 deadline to reach an agreement....(read more)

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