NAR 2019 Home Price Forecast Correction

In the Pending Home Sales release yesterday, the NAR wrote : Looking ahead to next year, existing sales are forecast to decline 0.4 percent and home prices to drop roughly 2.5 percent. Forecasting a price decline would be huge news! However that was a typo in the release. As Andrea Riquier at MarketWatch noted on the NAR forecast (after contacting the NAR): Home prices WILL NOT DECLINE 2.5%, price appreciation will decline to a 2.5% annual rate. This is still lower than the 3.1% median home price increase in 2019 that NAR economist Lawrence Yun was forecasting a few weeks....(read more)

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Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Slower House Price Gains in October

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for September were released this week. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Aaron Terrazas at Zillow: September Case-Shiller Results and October Forecast: A Slow Return to the Push-Pull of a Normal Market The U.S. National S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index - which tracks home prices - rose 5.5 percent in September from a year earlier, in line with Zillow's forecast last month. ... Zillow forecasts an even slower 5.4 percent annual gain for......(read more)

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One Section of the US Yield Curve May Invert as Soon as Today

Bloomberg One Section of the US Yield Curve May Invert as Soon as Today Bloomberg As bond traders scale back Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations, one section of the U.S. yield curve is on a fast track to inversion. The spread between 3-year and 5-year Treasury yields shrank to less than 0.1 basis point on Friday, the smallest gap ......(read more)

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One Week Extension of Flood Insurance Program

As previously reported, the National Flood Insurance Program was scheduled to expire on November 30, 2018. Once again, Congress has kicked the can down the road by authorizing a temporary extension of the Program, rather than adopting a long-term, sensible reform of the Program. This time the kick was short, as the extension is only... Continue Reading…...(read more)

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Fed adds its voice to rising fears about retirement investor core bond holdings

The Federal Reserve voiced strong concerns this week about the amount of risky debt in the investment-grade bond market. It is not just the deterioration in credit of iconic companies like GE, but a record level of debt in the lowest tier of investment grade that should worry investors nearing or in retirement who use bond funds and ETFs to protect their wealth and generate income....(read more)

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Multifamily Construction Remains a Built-for-Rent Market

An elevated rental share of multifamily construction is holding typical apartment size below levels seen during the pre-Great Recession period. As multifamily developers build more for-sale housing units in the years ahead, the average size of multifamily homes is likely to rise. According to third quarter 2018 data, the average per unit square footage of multifamily housing construction starts was 1,125, off from the... Read More ›...(read more)

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Chicago PMI Increased in November

From the Chicago PMI: Chicago Business Barometer Surges to 66.4 in November The MNI Chicago Business Barometer surged to an 11-month high of 66.4 in November , up 8.0 points from October's 58.4. Business activity recorded its most impressive performance so far this year in November, ending a three-month run of declines. Although broad-based, with increases across all five of the Barometer's subcomponents, resurgent orders, solid output and higher unfinished orders were the month's key drivers. ... Building on October's rise, the Employment indicator strengthened further in November, hitting a ......(read more)

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Powell shouldn't follow Greenspan's example at Fed, veteran economist says

Stocks in the U.S. ripped higher Wednesday after Powell said that the Fed funds rate was now just below the range of estimates for neutral....(read more)

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Canada, Mexico, U.S. sign new trade deal

U.S. President Donald Trump, Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexico's President Enrique Pena Nieto signed a new trade agreement on Friday known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)....(read more)

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US Treasury yields lower amid dovish Fed comments; G-20 summit in focus

U.S. government debt prices rose on the final trading day of the month as investors digested dovish sentiment from the Federal Reserve and looked ahead to the upcoming G-20 summit in Argentina....(read more)

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How Far to Fed Neutral?

Bloomberg How Far to Fed Neutral? Bloomberg Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell fueled bets on risk assets after saying the central bank is "just below the broad range of estimates" for a neutral level of interest rates. But he didn't say where policy makers should halt their rate-hike ... and more »...(read more)

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Homebuilders ETF Sees Massive Volume on Powell's Dovish Comments

Bloomberg Homebuilders ETF Sees Massive Volume on Powell's Dovish Comments Bloomberg What do you get when you cross an eight-day winning streak with seemingly dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell? How about some serious action in an exchange-traded fund stuffed with homebuilder stocks. Investors poured ......(read more)

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The Fed is still tweaking its balance sheet unwind

In a process begun in October 2017, the bank is decreasing the size of its bond portfolio, which grew to more than $4.5 trillion as part of an effort to drive down mortgage rates and lift economic growth....(read more)

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Mortgage rates could head lower after Powell comment drives bond yield to important level

With the Fed sounding more dovish, the bond market is now signaling that rates for mortgages and other loans could be lower in the near future than what was expected just a few days ago....(read more)

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Fed points to December rate hike but is worried about tariffs and debt

The Federal Open Market Committee released minutes Wednesday from its Nov. 7-8 meeting at which it decided to hold the central bank's benchmark rate steady at a range of 2 percent to 2.25 percent....(read more)

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Trump says 'long way to go' on tariffs and China

U.S. President Trump said on Thursday said there was "a long way to go" on tariffs with China and urged companies to build products in the United States to avoid them....(read more)

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Rising US Jobless Claims Are Starting to Worry Some Economists

Bloomberg Rising US Jobless Claims Are Starting to Worry Some Economists Bloomberg The rising number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits is starting to worry some economists, though the latest increases came during holiday periods typically associated with data volatility. Initial jobless claims rose 10,000 last week to 234 ... and more »...(read more)

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Deutsche Bank Warns Powell's Remarks Were 'Misunderstood' by Markets

Bloomberg Deutsche Bank Warns Powell's Remarks Were 'Misunderstood' by Markets Bloomberg Skeptics are warning U.S. stock investors they overdid it with their exuberant reaction to comments from Jerome Powell on Wednesday. Traders read too much into the Federal Reserve chairman's comments that suggested interest rates may not need to go ......(read more)

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Pending home sales drop 2.6% in October for 10th straight month of annual declines

Expectations for a stronger housing market in October fell short. Pending homes sales, a measure of signed contracts to buy existing homes, fell 2.6 percent compared with September, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were down a steeper 6.7 percent compared with October 2017. That makes the tenth straight month of annual declines. This follows another disappointing report on sales of newly built homes in October, which also measure signed contracts....(read more)

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Luxury Home Prices Up 3.2 Percent Annually in the Third Quarter, the Lowest Growth Rate in Nearly Two Years

Supply of homes priced $2 million or more fell 6 percent from a year earlier, as inventory overall inched up. Luxury home prices rose 3.2 percent year over year to an average of $1.7 million in the third quarter of 2018. This is the lowest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2016, when prices […] The post Luxury Home Prices Up 3.2 Percent Annually in the Third Quarter, the Lowest Growth Rate in Nearly Two Years appeared first on Redfin Real-Time ....(read more)

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Personal Income increased 0.5% in October, Spending increased 0.6%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for October: Personal income increased $84.9 billion (0.5 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $81.7 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $86.9 billion (0.6 percent). Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in October and Real PCE increased 0.4 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. The October PCE price index increased 2.0......(read more)

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 234,000

The DOL reported : In the week ending November 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000 , an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 224,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,250, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 218,500. emphasis added The previous week was unrevised. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to ......(read more)

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US 10-Year Yield Approaches 3% as Rate Bets Return to Earth

Bloomberg US 10-Year Yield Slides Below 3% as Rate Bets Return to Earth Bloomberg Treasuries rallied, pushing 10-year yields below 3 percent for the first time since September, amid speculation prospects are diminishing for global interest-rate increases next year. European bonds also gained. U.S. money-market pricing showed traders ... and more »...(read more)

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How a Dovish Tone at the Fed Sounded Across Markets

Bloomberg How a Dovish Tone at the Fed Sounded Across Markets Bloomberg From emerging-market bonds to developed-nation currencies, the ripples from Jerome Powell's comments on interest rates barreled through markets in seconds. The Federal Reserve chairman, who warned in October that monetary policy was "a long way ... and more »...(read more)

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Did Powell Just Put a Floor Under Stocks? Wall Street Weighs In

Bloomberg Did Powell Just Put a Floor Under Stocks? Wall Street Weighs In Bloomberg Stocks charged higher after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a double-dose of fuel for equity bulls, on interest rates and valuations. But can it put a lasting end to volatility that has bedeviled investors for two months? Wall Street ... and more »...(read more)

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Instant View: Fed's gradual rate hikes balance against risks - Powell

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that while there was "a great deal to like" about U.S. prospects, the Fed's gradual interest-rate hikes are meant to balance risks as it tries to keep the economy on track....(read more)

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After Powell comments, traders only see two more interest rate hikes

Stocks surged and bonds sold off in a powerful move after market pros took Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comment to mean the Fed is nearing an end of its rate hiking cycle....(read more)

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BlackRock's bond king: Fed rates could already be at neutral given the pockets of economic weakness

BlackRock global fixed income CIO Rick Rieder sees a December rate hike and maybe only one or two next year....(read more)

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New Home Sales decrease to 544,000 Annual Rate in October

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 544 thousand. The previous three months were revised up significantly. "Sales of new single-family houses in October 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 544,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.9 percent  below the revised September rate of 597,000 and is 12.0 percent below the October 2017 estimate of 618,000. " emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The......(read more)

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Fed stability report: Banks, households strong, but asset values 'elevated'

Tensions over trade, the turbulent Brexit discussions, and trouble in China and emerging markets could rock a U.S. financial system where asset prices are "elevated" and business credit quality may be "deteriorating," the U.S. Federal Reserve said in a first-ever report devoted to financial stability....(read more)

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Some Easing of AD&C Lending, According to Builders and Developers

In the third quarter of 2018, credit conditions eased somewhat, according to the builders and developers responding to NAHB’s survey on land acquisition, development, and construction (AD&C) loans. The net tightening index constructed from the NAHB survey was -12.0 in the third quarter quarter, compared to -5.0 the previous quarter. The index is constructed so negative numbers indicate easing of credit; positive tightening, so... Read More ›...(read more)

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Third-quarter GDP unrevised at 3.5%, in line with estimates

The second estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product was forecast to rise 3.5 percent, in line with the preliminary reading and slowing from the 4.2 percent growth in the prior quarter....(read more)

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FOMC Will Stay the Course, Goldman's Wilson Says

Bloomberg FOMC Will Stay the Course, Goldman's Wilson Says Bloomberg Andrew Wilson, chief executive officer for EMEA and global head of fixed income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, discusses the Federal Reserve's rate path and U.S. economic outlook for 2019. He speaks with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua on ......(read more)

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The 4 Key Trends Home Buyers and Sellers Should Watch in 2019

The realtor.com economic research team analyzed a wealth of housing data to come up with a forecast of what 2019 might hold for home buyers and sellers-and it looks like both groups are going to be facing some challenges.  The post The 4 Key Trends Home Buyers and Sellers Should Watch in 2019 appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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House releases last-minute tax breaks, amid uncertainty over passage

If you were going to take a deduction for your mortgage insurance or college expenses, prepare to sit tight for a few weeks. The House Ways and Means Committee has released a new proposal that addresses certain tax breaks and paves the way for new retirement initiatives....(read more)

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Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in September

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.5% year-over-year in September It has been over eleven years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 10.8% above the previous bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is still about 8.5% below the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).  The composite 20, in real terms, is still 12.4% below the bubble peak. The year-over-year increase in ......(read more)

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Ex-Fed Governor Tarullo Sees Fed Close to Autopilot in Last Year

Bloomberg Ex-Fed Governor Tarullo Sees Fed Close to Autopilot in Last Year Bloomberg Former Federal Reserve Governor Dan Tarullo discusses the Federal Reserve's awareness of risks, the Fed's rate path, the influence of President Donald Trump, and changes to bank regulation. He speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas." (Source: ......(read more)

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Apartments are getting smaller – but renters are paying more

The average size of newly built apartments in the U.S. is shrinking, but rents are still rising. Millennials appear to be more willing to pay for smaller units that are located in urban centers where rents are highest....(read more)

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FHFA Announces Maximum Conforming Loan Limits for 2019

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) today announced the maximum conforming loan limits for mortgages to be acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2019. In most of the U.S., the 2019 maximum conforming loan limit for one-unit properties will be $484,350, an increase from $453,100 in 2018....(read more)

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Slight Growth for Custom Home Building

NAHB's analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates custom home building posted a small gain on a year-over-year basis. There were 54,000 total custom starts for the third quarter of 2018. This was a slight improvement over the third quarter of 2017 (51,000). Over the last four quarters, ending with the third quarter... Read More ›...(read more)

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Consumer confidence hits 135.7 in November, vs. estimate of 135.9

Consumer confidence hits 135.7 in November, vs. estimate of 135.9|| 105594741...(read more)

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Fed wants smallest possible portfolio, says Vice Chair Clarida

The U.S. Federal Reserve ultimately wants to have the smallest balance sheet possible while still being able to control its policy rate, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said on Tuesday....(read more)

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Fed's Clarida says interest rates are 'much closer' to neutral

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida expressed a cautious view Tuesday about how the central bank should proceed in raising interest rates....(read more)

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10 Cities Where Americans Are Deepest in Debt—but Still Buy Homes!

The realtor.com data team set out to find the U.S. housing markets where home buyers are going the deepest into debt to buy a home-and where their debt burden is lightest. The post 10 Cities Where Americans Are Deepest in Debt-but Still Buy Homes! appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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El-Erian: Fed will have to hike rates again next month or risk appearing politically influenced

"It is very hard for the Fed right now to go back to three hikes," says Mohamed El-Erian, the chief economic advisor at Allianz....(read more)

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JPMorgan Says Plunging US Options Signal Simply Shows Caution

Bloomberg JPMorgan Says Plunging US Options Signal Simply Shows Caution Bloomberg A key gauge of S&P 500 Index options activity has tumbled to multiyear lows, which some might see as a signal investors are underhedged. But JPMorgan Chase & Co. doesn't think so. The plunge in the S&P 500 put/call open interest ratio, which measures ......(read more)

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To Discover an Up-and-Coming Neighborhood, Look for the Museum

The biggest thing at the museum these days isn't the latest impressionism exhibit. It's the real estate surrounding the museum that's generating buzz. The post To Discover an Up-and-Coming Neighborhood, Look for the Museum appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® ....(read more)

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Oldest (and Youngest) Homeowner Average Age by Metro

There is one statement that is almost always true among the majority of homeowners:  Homeownership is an older person's game.   The key word is majority.  While younger people buy housing every day, when the homeownership metric is viewed with respect to age, it is highly correlated. LendingTree examined the 100 largest metros in the U.S. … Read more...(read more)

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Entry-Level Home Inventory Yields Declining New Home Size

Continuing a multiyear trend, new single-family home size decreased during the third quarter of 2018. New home size has been falling over the last three years due to an incremental move to additional entry-level home construction. According to third quarter 2018 data from the Census Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design and NAHB analysis, median single-family square floor area decreased to 2,320 square... Read More ›...(read more)

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History Shows Fed Pause May Require More Than an SOS From Stocks

Bloomberg History Shows Fed Pause May Require More Than an SOS From Stocks Bloomberg The U.S. stocks sell-off has stirred memories of past market turbulence as investors begin to question the viability of the Federal Reserve's tightening path. While it's come to the market's rescue in the past, it hasn't done so recently without a ......(read more)

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