Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in October

Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in October to 1.58% from 1.59% in September. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.92% in October 2014, and this is the lowest level since August 2008. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%. Note: These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Note: Freddie Mac has not reported for October yet. Click on graph for larger image The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has only fallen 0.34 percentage points over the......(read more)

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More confusion in the bond market

The Fed is again sending conflicting signals about what the future holds, and those who are trading bonds don't quite know what to make of it....(read more)

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Restaurant Performance Index indicates faster expansion in October

Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Rose in October Driven by stronger same-store sales and a more optimistic outlook among restaurant operators, the National Restaurant Association's Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) posted a moderate gain in October. The RPI – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 102.1 in October, up 0.7 percent from a level of 101.4 in September. In addition, October represented the 32nd consecutive month in which the RPI stood above ......(read more)

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CFPB makes no change to exemption thresholds for appraisal requirement, Regs Z and M

Barbara S. Mishkin The CFPB has published notices in the Federal Register announcing that it is making no change to three exemption thresholds that are subject to annual inflation adjustments.  Effective January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2016, these exemption thresholds remain as follows: Smaller loans exempt from the appraisal requirement for "higher priced mortgage loans," $25,500 Consumer... More >...(read more)

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Chicago PMI declines to 48.7

Chicago PMI: Nov Chicago Business Barometer Down 7.5 Points To 48.7 The Chicago Business Barometer decreased 7.5 points to 48.7 in November from 56.2 in October, as a sharp fall in New Orders put it back into contraction for the sixth time this year. The significant decline in the Barometer is indicative of the see-saw pattern of demand seen in 2015, with output and orders shifting in and out of contraction. The November fall also suggests that activity over the final quarter of the year may well decelerate barring a bounceback in December. New Orders fell 15.3 points to 44.1 in November from ......(read more)

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New Fed rules forbid corporate bailouts

The Federal Reserve said it will adopt new regulations on emergency corporate lending....(read more)

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Expect October Year-over-year Change for Case-Shiller Index Similar to September

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for September were released on Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Zillow: Case-Shiller Forecast Calls for Similar Annual, Monthly Gains in October The September S&P Case-Shiller (SPCS) data published [on Tuesday] showed home prices rising on a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, with month-over-month rises of 0.6 percent for both the 10- and 20- city indices and 0.8 percent for the national index. The October Case-Shiller forecast calls for......(read more)

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There's a Big Drop in U.S. Treasury Debt Supply Coming in 2016

There's a Big Drop in U.S. Treasury Debt Supply Coming in 2016 Bloomberg Lost in the debate over the U.S. Treasury market's resilience as the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates is one simple fact: supply is falling -- and fast. Net issuance of U.S. notes and bonds will tumble 26 percent next year, according to ... and more »...(read more)

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U.S. Note Yields Near 9-Year High to Germany Before ECB, Jobs

U.S. Note Yields Near 9-Year High to Germany Before ECB, Jobs Bloomberg The extra yield that two-year Treasuries offer over their German counterparts was near a nine-year high before events this week that economists predict will push monetary policy in opposite directions. The spread was at 135 basis points at 8:25 a.m. in ... and more »...(read more)

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ECB Left With No Choice But Action After Draghi Warns Market

ECB Left With No Choice But Action After Draghi Warns Market Bloomberg Economists surveyed by Bloomberg unanimously predict the European Central Bank will boost stimulus again this week, less than halfway through a 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.2 trillion) bond-buying program, and most foresee multiple measures. The institution's ... and more »...(read more)

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What Will Push ECB's Mario Draghi to Act?

Bloomberg What Will Push ECB's Mario Draghi to Act? Bloomberg Pimco Global Fixed Income CIO Andrew Balls discusses the European economy and ECB monetary policy. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets." (Source: Bloomberg). Related. The Fed's Slow Hike Path to Fight a Stronger Dollar. Most Recent Videos. Reasons ......(read more)

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Here's what's happening next week

CNBC takes a look at the main stories of the week to come....(read more)

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Want to Buy a Home in These 12 Cities? Here's the Minimum Salary You Need

Analysis from mortgage website HSH.com has pinpointed the exact salary you'd need to purchase a home in 27 different cities. The post Want to Buy a Home in These 12 Cities? Here’s the Minimum Salary You Need appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com ....(read more)

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Treasury ETF Withdrawals Surge to 14-Month High on Fed Outlook

Treasury ETF Withdrawals Surge to 14-Month High on Fed Outlook Bloomberg Investors are selling U.S. government bond exchange-traded funds at the fastest pace in 14 months as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates. They withdrew $4.1 billion from U.S. fixed-income funds in November, the most since September ... and more »...(read more)

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2016: Updated Housing Forecasts

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like analysts are optimistic for 2016 ( many more forecasts will be added ). First a review of the previous three years ... Here is a summary of forecasts for 2015 . In 2015, new home sales will probably be just over 500 thousand, and total housing starts will be something over 1.1 million.  It is early, but CoreLogic, Zillow and the MBA were very close on New Home sales, and CoreLogic, MetroStudy, MBA and Zillow were all close on starts. Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014 . In......(read more)

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Comments on October New Home Sales

The new home sales report for October was slightly below expectations, however sales for July, August and September were revised down. Sales were up 4.9% year-over-year in October (SA). Earlier: New Home Sales increased to 495,000 Annual Rate in October . Even though the October report was somewhat disappointing, sales are still up solidly year-to-date.  The Census Bureau reported that new home sales this year, through October, were 430,000, not seasonally adjusted (NSA). That is up 15.7% from 371,000 sales during the same period of 2014 (NSA). That is a strong year-over-year gain......(read more)

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Pimco, others sue Citigroup over billions in mortgage debt losses

(Reuters) - Pacific Investment Management Co and other investors have sued Citigroup Inc over the bank's alleged failure to properly monitor toxic securities backed by more than $13.8 billion of mortgage loans, resulting in $2.3 billion of losses....(read more)

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In One Chart: Junk-bond yields are soaring — and the Fed hasn't raised rates yet

The riskiest junk bonds have seen their yields almost double in the last year, as portfolio managers begin to worry about credit quality....(read more)

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Banking's future all about the apps

At a time when bank branches are disappearing by the hundreds, many folks don't seem to care....(read more)

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October New-Home Sales Look to Rebound, but Don't Celebrate Yet

razerbird/iStock Is it a new boom? Sales of new single-family homes in October grew 11% from September, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly The post October New-Home Sales Look to Rebound, but Don’t Celebrate Yet appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com ....(read more)

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Agencies announce threshold for smaller loan exemption from appraisal requirements for higher-priced mortgage loans

Agencies announce threshold for smaller loan exemption from appraisal requirements for higher-priced mortgage loans...(read more)

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New home sales rise less than expected for October

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters forecast that there were 505,000 new homes sales in October....(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Ease

Mortgage Rates Ease...(read more)

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U.S. Housing Market Recovery Inches Forward

U.S. Housing Market Recovery Inches Forward...(read more)

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U.S. business spending gauge surges, durable goods orders soar

WASHINGTON, Nov 25 (Reuters) - - A gauge of U.S. business investment plans surged in October, the latest suggestion that the worst of the drag from a strong dollar and deep spending cuts by energy firms was over....(read more)

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Euro falls on report ECB considers broadening out QE bond buys

European Central Bank policy makers are looking at widening the scope of their bond buying or implementing a two-tier penalty charge on banks that leave cash with the ECB, Reuters reported Wednesday. The moves under consideration include purchases of regional bonds and even buying rebundled loans with a risk of non-payment, Reuters said, citing officials speaking on condition of anonymity. The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0608 on the report. Separately, the ECB gave advance warning Wednesday that it will put its Asset Purchase Program on temporary hold on Dec. 22, and will resume the quantitative......(read more)

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U.S. consumer spending slowing, but business investment poised to rise

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending barely rose in October as households took advantage of rising incomes to boost savings to their highest level in nearly three years, pointing to moderate economic growth in the fourth quarter....(read more)

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More Young Adults Live With Their Parents Now Than During the Recession

The share of 18-to-34-year-olds living with their parents was 31.5% as of March 2015, up from 31.4% last year, according to a report from the Commerce Department on Monday. The post More Young Adults Live With Their Parents Now Than During the Recession appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com ....(read more)

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Why markets are still not ready for the Fed to hike

Analysts are warning that investors are still at risk of being caught out by the pace of rate rises next year, particularly in U.S. government bonds and the dollar....(read more)

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Fidelity's Brown: ECB to Cut in Early December

Bloomberg Fidelity's Brown: ECB to Cut in Early December Bloomberg Bob Brown, head of Fidelity Investment's Institutional Fixed-Income group, joined Bloomberg TV Canada's Pamela Ritchie to discuss his outlook for another ECB rate cut in early December and where he sees opportunities in the global bond market. (Source: ......(read more)

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U.S. Curve Narrows as BlackRock Adds to View Bonds Ready for Fed

U.S. Curve Narrows as BlackRock Adds to View Bonds Ready for Fed Bloomberg The difference between two- and 10-year Treasuries shrank to the narrowest since March as the world's biggest money managers say the market looks to be ready for the first Federal Reserve interest-rate increase in almost a decade. BlackRock Inc. the ... and more »...(read more)

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Treasurys climb as geopolitics spark safe-haven buying

U.S. sovereign bonds prices traded higher on Wednesday, pushing yields down after news that Turkey shot down a Russian warplane on the Syrian border Tuesday fueled demand for the safe haven asset....(read more)

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9 Fed banks want discount rate hike

The number of regional Federal Reserve banks pushing for a hike in what commercial banks are charged for emergency loans rose to nine in October....(read more)

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Why the Housing Rebound Hasn't Lifted the U.S. Economy Much

Many homeowners don't realize they have home equity to tap, while banks have pulled back on loan amounts and other types of loans have become cheaper. The post Why the Housing Rebound Hasn't Lifted the U.S. Economy Much appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com ....(read more)

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CFPB plans national survey on financial well-being

Barbara S. Mishkin The CFPB has published a notice in the Federal Register indicating that it is planning to conduct a “Financial Well-Being National Survey.” In the notice, the CFPB states that through its prior research, it has determined that improvement in consumer financial well-being is the ultimate goal of its financial literacy initiatives.  To inform its identification... More >...(read more)

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Who's overpaying on mortgages?

A wide swath of borrowers today may be paying far too much on their home loans, simply because they are overly cautious. Why?...(read more)

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CFPB issues snapshot of servicemember complaints

Barbara S. Mishkin The CFPB has issued a new “snapshot of servicemember complaints.”  The report states that as of November 2015, the CFPB had received about 2,500 complaints from servicemembers, veterans and their dependents about high-cost consumer credit.  These complaints were submitted under two complaint categories: the “payday loan” category or under the “debt collection” category with “payday... More >...(read more)

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Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in September

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.9% year-over-year in September The year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now at between 4% and 5%.   In October 2013, the National index was up 10.9% year-over-year (YoY). In September 2015, the index was up 4.9% YoY. Here is the YoY change since January 2014 for the National Index: Month YoY Change Jan-14 10.5% Feb-14 10.1% Mar-14 8.9% Apr-14 7.9% May-14 7.1% Jun-14 6.3% Jul-14 5.7% Aug-14 5.1% Sep-14 4.8% Oct-14 4.6% Nov-14 4.6% Dec-14 4.6% Jan-15 4.3% Feb-15 4.3%......(read more)

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Consumer confidence declines again

U.S. consumers were feeling less optimistic about the economy in November, according to a report released Tuesday....(read more)

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What's `Gradual' in Fedspeak? Markets Obsess Over Latest Riddle

Bloomberg What's `Gradual' in Fedspeak? Markets Obsess Over Latest Riddle Bloomberg When Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, took queries from a local audience on Nov. 13, it didn't take long for someone to pose the question that now obsesses the investment world. "What does 'gradual' mean?" asked Craig ......(read more)

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How much tax you pay on $1M property

As growth has slowed, investors have become more aware of what it actually costs to buy, hold and sell a property, with tax costs a key factor....(read more)

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If the Fed goes, who will follow?

If the Fed hikes interest rates in December, only a handful of central banks around the world are expected to join it....(read more)

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U.S. third-quarter GDP growth revised up to 2.1 percent

WASHINGTON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - - The U.S. economy grew at a healthier clip in the third quarter than initially thought, suggesting resilience that could help give the Federal Reserve confidence to raise interest rates next month....(read more)

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Fed to crush housing? Maybe not

A Fed hike will make it more expensive for homebuyers but won't doom homebuilders, RBC analyst Robert Wetenhall says....(read more)

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Kolko: "Why Millennials Still Live With Their Parents"

Some excellent research from Jed Kolko: Why Millennials Still Live With Their Parents This morning the Census reported that more young adults are living with their parents in 2015 than during the recession. Despite widespread expectations (including my own) that young people would move out as the job market recovered, they are not. The share of 18-34 year-olds living with parents was 31.5% in 2015, up from 31.4% in 2014. (These Census data are from March of each year. See note at end of post on data and methods.) ... After dropping a bit from the late 1990s to the early 2000s, the share of......(read more)

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Google could be your next mortgage broker

Shopping for a mortgage? Google is now a licensed mortgage broker....(read more)

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House passes bill to curb QM requirements

Richard J. Andreano, Jr. and Matthew Smith On November 18, 2015, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill that would provide a safe harbor exception for depository institutions from certain provisions of the Truth in Lending Act and Regulation Z, and for mortgage originators from the steering prohibition of the loan originator compensation requirements under Regulation Z (LO Comp Rule). By... More >...(read more)

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Fed's Yellen argues for interest rate caution in exchange with Nader

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Monday argued for a cautious approach to the pace of rate hikes in an unusual exchange of letters with consumer advocate Ralph Nader....(read more)

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New mortgage rules: Like 'Y2K' panic

New mortgage closing rules are not causing the widespread disruptions in the housing market that some had predicted....(read more)

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Comments on October Existing Home Sales

Earlier: Existing Home Sales in October: 5.36 million SAAR I expected some increase in inventory this year, but that hasn't happened.  Inventory is still very low and falling year-over-year (down 4.5% year-over-year in September). More inventory would probably mean smaller price increases and slightly higher sales, and less inventory means lower sales and somewhat larger price increases. It would seem if we do see lower sales - and higher prices - that should eventually lead to more inventory.  So far the opposite has been true. Also, if sales do slow, it is important to......(read more)

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