Fed's Updated Model of Economy Suggests It's Time to Raise Rates

Fed's Updated Model of Economy Suggests It's Time to Raise Rates Bloomberg The Federal Reserve Board released an updated version of its large-scale model on the U.S. economy that may hold clues into why policy makers pivoted at their meeting earlier this week toward a December interest-rate increase. The revised inputs and ... and more »...(read more)

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Restaurant Performance Index indicates slower expansion in September

Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index: Operators' Sales Outlook at Two-Year Low Although same-store sales and customer traffic remained positive in September, the National Restaurant Association's Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) registered a modest decline. The RPI – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 101.4 in September, down slightly from a level of 101.5 in August . Despite the decline, September represented the 31st consecutive month in which the......(read more)

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Home flippers get creative as competition heats up

Home flipping is surging again as first-time homebuyers are targeted....(read more)

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Fed proposal aims to stop 'too big to fail'

The Federal Reserve issued a proposal on total loss absorbing capacity, designed to stop the "too big to fail" structure of important banks....(read more)

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Misbehaving banks have now paid $200B+ in fines

Regulators have been out for blood against banks for conduct both before the crisis and since....(read more)

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CFPB accuses company of taking advantage of confusing financial aid process

Applying for financial aid is hard enough....(read more)

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Janet Yellen just got some pretty bad news

After the Fed released what was allegedly its most hawkish statement in months came a reminder that the path toward a rate hike won't be an easy one....(read more)

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Williams on risk of low interest rates

San Francisco Fed President John Williams said that low neutral interest rates are a warning sign of possible changes in the U.S. economy....(read more)

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Bond Report: Treasury yields fall after subdued inflation data

Treasury yields edged lower Friday morning after the release of slightly weaker than expected economic data on U.S. consumer spending and inflation....(read more)

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Consumer sentiment inches up in October

U.S. consumer sentiment inched up in October, but missed expectations, according to a report released on Friday....(read more)

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Chicago PMI increases Sharply, Final October Consumer Sentiment at 90.0

Chicago PMI: Oct Chicago Business Barometer Up 7.5 Points To 56.2 The Chicago Business Barometer increased 7.5 points to 56.2 in October from 48.7 in Septembe r, led by strong gains in both Production and New Orders. The sharp increase in the Barometer pushed it to the highest since January and marks a promising start to the fourth quarter, building on the small gain made in Q3. ... Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, "The dissapointing September data look more like an aberration than the start of a trend, and the October results mark a good start to the final quarter of the......(read more)

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Consumer spending posts smallest rise in 8 months

Spending and income barely rose in September, suggesting some cooling in domestic demand after recent hefty increases....(read more)

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Where interest rates will be when the economy is (finally) healthy and why it matters

Event Information October 30, 2015 10:00 AM - 12:00 PM EDT Falk Auditorium Brookings Institution 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 Register for the Event One of the many current mysteries in monetary policy is what interest rate, in the long run, helps keep the U.S. at full employment and stable prices, which is sometimes called the natural rate of interest. Federal Reserve policymakers have marked down their estimates in recent years, suggesting that they expect interest rates to be lower than the post-World War II average for some time to come. The International......(read more)

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Zillow Forecast: Expect September Year-over-year Change for Case-Shiller Index Similar to August

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for August were released Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Zillow: September Case-Shiller Forecast: Look for Continued Modest Growth in Pace of Appreciation he August S&P Case-Shiller (SPCS) data published [Tuesday] showed home prices rising on a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, with slight rises in the 10- and 20- city indices and almost half a percentage point rise in the national index. We expect the September SPCS to show similar......(read more)

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AIG mulls spinning off mortgage insurance: Report

AIG is considering spinning off or selling its mortgage insurance segment amid pressure to split, according to a report....(read more)

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Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment

Earlier today, the UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate released some predictions for 2016: [W]e are forecasting housing starts of 1.14 million units this year and 1.42 million units and 1.44 million units in 2016 and 2017, respectively. ... Our forecast is underpinned by continued growth in real GDP that will likely run at 3% in 2016, continued jobs gains in excess of 200,000 a month for most of the forecast period, relatively low mortgage rates at least through 2016 and household formations in excess of one million a year in 2016 and 2017. This housing start forecast for 2016 seems way too......(read more)

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Freddie Mac Issues Monthly Volume Summary for September 2015

Freddie Mac Issues Monthly Volume Summary for September 2015...(read more)

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People Have Some Interesting Thoughts About Peer-to-Peer Lending

People Have Some Interesting Thoughts About Peer-to-Peer Lending Bloomberg Peer-to-peer, or marketplace, lenders have been growing fast as they seek to disrupt the traditional world of banking by connecting borrowers directly with lenders. As they develop, however, they're bumping against a host of old and new rules ......(read more)

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Unlicensed Lenders to Refund Millions to Consumers Over Illegal Online Lending Scheme

Unlicensed Lenders to Refund Millions to Consumers Over Illegal Online Lending Scheme<br/>http://ift.tt/1kWnLaW...(read more)

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Builders say Labor Shortages Delaying Closings, Pushing Up Costs; and Some Other Observations

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Several builders have released earnings and had earnings conference calls for the quarter ended September 30, 2015, and one of the key "themes" from builders was that resource "constraints," specifically with respect to labor, slowed home closings last quarter, and in some cases contributed to weaker than expected net orders. PulteGroup, M/I Homes, Meritage Homes, and MDC Holdings all said, in one form or another, that labor "shortages" – laborers, land development, and various trades – had resulted both in accelerating labor costs and delays in land......(read more)

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Fed Officials Still Need to Win Over Key Voter: The Bond Market

Fed Officials Still Need to Win Over Key Voter: The Bond Market Bloomberg Even after putting a December interest-rate boost back on the bond market's radar screen, Federal Reserve officials still haven't gotten traders' full stamp of approval for their projected path of increases. Futures indicate that traders see about a 50 ... and more »...(read more)

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Residential Construction Wage Slowly Recovers

The median hourly wage for workers in the residential construction industry rose 1.41% in 2014, while an additional 5.42% of the workforce was added to the sector, according to this year's National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates United States report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics....(read more)

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Residential Construction Wage Slowly Recovering

Residential Construction Wage Slowly Recovering<br/>http://ift.tt/1jUoUjb...(read more)

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Germany's Inflation Rate Rebounds After Brief Dip Below Zero

Germany's Inflation Rate Rebounds After Brief Dip Below Zero Bloomberg Inflation unexpectedly returned to Germany this month, raising the chances that a spell of consumer-price declines in the 19-nation euro region may also prove temporary. Prices in Germany rose an annual 0.2 percent after dropping by the same amount in ... and more »...(read more)

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U.S. pending homes sales decline in September

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes fell unexpectedly in September, a warning sign that the housing market recovery may be stumbling....(read more)

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Inventories hurt Q3 GDP, but domestic demand strong

Economic growth braked sharply in the third quarter, but solid domestic demand could encourage the Fed to raise interest rates in December....(read more)

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US jobless claims rise

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose marginally....(read more)

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The Fed: How Yellen got Fed doves to go along with October statement

Fed expert thinks U.S. central bank Chairwoman Janet Yellen exerted leadership to get doves to back October statement....(read more)

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GOP candidates slam Bernanke and the Fed

Republican presidential candidates threw Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve under the bus Wednesday night....(read more)

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Will This Online Lender's Risky Business Model Hold Up?

Bloomberg Will This Online Lender's Risky Business Model Hold Up? Bloomberg Startup Avant-an online lender valued at almost $2 billion-says a typical borrower takes out about $8,000 and uses it to refinance other debt. Illustration: Chi Birmingham/Bloomberg Markets. Don't Miss Out - Follow Bloomberg On. Facebook Twitter ......(read more)

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Bond Traders Boost Bets on December Fed Rate Increase

Bond Traders Boost Bets on December Fed Rate Increase Bloomberg Traders see a 45 percent chance that the Fed will raise its benchmark rate from near zero at its next meeting, up from a 37 percent probability before the central bank said Wednesday that it kept its target unchanged, according to data compiled by ... and more »...(read more)

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The Fed: Fed circles December for possible rate hike

The Fed signaled Wednesday that a rate hike is squarely on the table at the December meeting....(read more)

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U.S. third-quarter GDP forecasts raised after trade data

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. third-quarter economic growth could surprise on the upside after government data on Wednesday showed the goods trade deficit narrowed sharply to a seven-month low in September....(read more)

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Bankruptcy Filings declined 11% in Fiscal 2015, Lowest Filings since 2007

From the US Court: Fiscal Year Bankruptcy Filings Continue Fall Bankruptcy cases filed in federal courts for the fiscal year 2015-the 12-month period ending September 30, 2015-totaled 860,182, down 11 percent from the 963,739 bankruptcy filings in FY 2014, according to statistics released today by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. This is the lowest number of bankruptcy filings for any 12-month period since 2007, and the fifth consecutive fiscal year filings have fallen. The number of filings for the fiscal year ending Sept 2015 were the lowest since 2007, and business filings......(read more)

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Bond Report: Treasury yields inch higher ahead of the Fed's statement

Treasury yields edge higher Wednesday, as investors brace for the Federal Reserve's policy statement on interest rates expected at 2 p.m. Eastern Time....(read more)

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Fewer homebuyers are tapping their parents for money

Financial gifts from parents decline to near pre-crash levels, Federal Reserve says....(read more)

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Another central bank eases after Draghi comments

The Swedish crown and 10-year government bond yields dropped Wednesday after Sweden's central bank expanded its asset purchase program....(read more)

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Mortgage applications down 3.5% on fewer rate swings

Wide weekly swings in mortgage applications seem to have calmed down, now that new lender regulations have been in place for nearly a month....(read more)

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Softening data set to stay Yellen's hand

The slower economy could make the US Federal Reserve sound more dovish and unlikely to take action this year....(read more)

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The Homeownership Rate Is Near a 30-Year Low. Could It Be Hitting Bottom?

The homeownership rate remained near its lowest point in three decades in the third quarter, but economists said the good news is that it may not go much lower. The post The Homeownership Rate Is Near a 30-Year Low. Could It Be Hitting Bottom? appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com ....(read more)

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Yellen gets worst grade: Fed Survey

The 41 survey respondents gave Janet Yellen a C-plus overall grade - a full letter markdown from the last time she was graded....(read more)

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Why Fed may hike rates before seeing whites of inflation's eyes

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Further falls in America's jobless rate will lead inflation to start rising early next year, according to a forecast based on research Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has cited as shaping her confidence a rate hike could be needed this year....(read more)

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Renters, Break Out Your Hankies: Homeowners Will Build Serious Wealth (and You Won't)

Homeowners on average have much greater net worth than renters. But did you realize just how much? By 2016, they'll have 45 times more. The post Renters, Break Out Your Hankies: Homeowners Will Build Serious Wealth (and You Won’t) appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com ....(read more)

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Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in August

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.7% year-over-year in August The year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now at between 4% and 5%.. In October 2013, the National index was up 10.9% year-over-year (YoY). In August 2015, the index was up 4.7% YoY. Here is the YoY change since January 2014 for the National Index: Month YoY Change Jan-14 10.5% Feb-14 10.1% Mar-14 8.9% Apr-14 7.9% May-14 7.0% Jun-14 6.3% Jul-14 5.6% Aug-14 5.1% Sep-14 4.8% Oct-14 4.6% Nov-14 4.6% Dec-14 4.5% Jan-15 4.3% Feb-15 4.2% Mar-15 4.3% Apr-15 ......(read more)

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For buyers, it's all about kitchens

The kitchen is where homebuilders are turning up the heat in an increasingly competitive market....(read more)

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HVS: Q3 2015 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q3 2015. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.  However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey. This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers.  The Census Bureau is investigating the differences between the HVS, ACS and decennial Census, and analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant......(read more)

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Boehner: Congress has budget agreement

House Speaker John Boehner said Tuesday that members of Congress have agreed on a budget....(read more)

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Yellen will testify on bank regulation to House panel on Nov. 4

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen will testify next Wednesday on bank regulation, the House Financial Services Committee said Tuesday. Rep. Jeb Hensarling, the Republican of Texas and the chairman of the panel, said Yellen would testify because the Obama administration had not chosen to appoint a Vice Chair for Supervision at the central bank. "Until the president appoints someone, we will have Chair Yellen testify and answer our questions," he said....(read more)

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Consumer confidence retreats in October

U.S. consumers were feeling less optimistic about the economy in October, according to a report released Tuesday....(read more)

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Aug home prices up 5.1% : Case-Shiller

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index showed U.S. home prices rose 5.1 percent from the year-ago period in August....(read more)

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