Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Greece No Hurdle for Bond Sellers Lured by Draghi's Euro Bounty

Greece No Hurdle for Bond Sellers Lured by Draghi's Euro Bounty Bloomberg Greece's relationship with the euro may be under strain, but the currency is finding new love in Asia and Latin America. In the first half of 2015, companies from Sinopec Group to Petroleos Mexicanos as well as the Mexican government sold bonds ......(read more)
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With Greece, Is the IMF at Risk of Repeating Its Own Mistakes?

As Greece defaults on its payments to the International Monetary Fund, is the emergency lender at risk of repeating bailout history? So say some of its sharpest critics....(read more)
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Fannie Mae Releases May 2015 Monthly Summary

The monthly summary report contains information about Fannie Mae s monthly and year-to-date activities for our gross mortgage portfolio, mortgage ......(read more)
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Wednesday: ISM Mfg, ADP Employment, Auto Sales, Construction Spending

Statement by the IMF on Greece Press Release No.15/310 June 30, 2015 Mr. Gerry Rice, Director of Communications at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), made the following statement today regarding Greece's financial obligations to the IMF due today: "I confirm that the SDR 1.2 billion repayment (about EUR 1.5 billion) due by Greece to the IMF today has not been received. We have informed our Executive Board that Greece is now in arrears and can only receive IMF financing once the arrears are cleared. "I can also confirm that the IMF received a request today from the Greek authorities for an ......(read more)
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What Is the European Union, Exactly?

The question is at the center of the Greek crisis....(read more)
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Eurozone finance ministers reject Greece bailout extension request

Eurozone finance ministers rejected Greece's last-minute request to extend its bailout program, but will consider a request for a new rescue program, Finland's finance minister, Alexander Stubb, said via Twitter. "Extension of program or haircut not possible...request for ESM-program is always dealt with through normal procedures," Stubb said in a pair of tweets following a conference call with eurozone finance ministers. Greece has called for a new, two-year bailout program via the European Stability Mechanism, or ESM, which is Europe's permanent bailout facility. News reports said finance......(read more)
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Bill Gross: Here's why the Fed needs to hike rates

Bill Gross believes the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates once this year-but only because it needs to prove that it can....(read more)
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Fischer: Will consider rate hikes soon

The Fed will consider rate hikes at upcoming policy meetings, but is weighing the risks of moving too early, a top Fed official said....(read more)
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Statement on Updated Private Mortgage Insurer Eligibility - Fannie

On April 17, 2015, Fannie Mae published the revised Private Mortgage Insurer Eligibility Requirements (PMIERs)....(read more)
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Syriza's referendum will divide Greece: Papandreou

Syriza didn't need to call a referendum on Greece's bailout because consensus already exists, former Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said....(read more)
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Yellen may have just gotten her excuse: Ex-Fed gov

The spiraling Greek debt crisis might delay Janet Yellen's central bank from increasing rates, former Fed Gov. Larry Lindsey tells CNBC....(read more)
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Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in April

The expected slowdown in year-over-year price increases has occurred. In October 2013, the National index was up 10.9% year-over-year (YoY). In April 2015, the index was up 4.2% YoY.  However the YoY change has only declined slightly recently. Here is the YoY change for the last 12 months for the National Index: Month YoY Change May-14 7.1% Jun-14 6.3% Jul-14 5.6% Aug-14 5.1% Sep-14 4.8% Oct-14 4.7% Nov-14 4.7% Dec-14 4.6% Jan-15 4.4% Feb-15 4.3% Mar-15 4.2% Apr-15 4.2% As I've noted before, I think most of the slowdown on a YoY basis is now behind us (I don't expect price to go......(read more)
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Chicago PMI rises in June

Business activity in the U.S. Midwest improved modestly during June, but fell short of forecasts, a report showed on Tuesday....(read more)
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U.S. consumer confidence improves in June

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence strengthened in June, bolstered by an improving jobs market, according to a private sector report released on Tuesday....(read more)
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US home prices up 4.9% in April: S&P/Case-Shiller

Home prices continued to rise in April, but at a slower pace than the previous month, according to the latest S&P/Case Shiller Index report....(read more)
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China's Slowdown is of Greater Consequence than Greece's Debt

The Wall Street Journal's Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Tuesday, June 30, 2015. Jon Hilsenrath sees more danger in the uncertainties around China's prospects than the knowns of Greece's grim fate....(read more)
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Economic Confidence Index Flat in U.S. at -8

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index averaged -8 for the week ending June 28. This is consistent with the -5 to -9 scores found the last nine weeks....(read more)
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What Happens If Greece Defaults on Its Payment to the IMF?

A default by Greece on a payment due to the IMF Tuesday would be the first by an advanced economy in the fund's seven-decade history, pitching the country deeper into crisis. Here's what could happen....(read more)
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Grexit to drachma would be dangerous: Larry Summers

It's hard to see how the Greek banking system, currently under capital controls, would survive to a switch to a new currency, former Clinton Treasury Secretary Larry Summers tells CNBC....(read more)
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Trading in Greek bonds halted on Tradeweb

Trading in a number of Greek government bonds and other Greek-issued securities have been blocked Tuesday by electronic trading platform Tradeweb. The move came at the request received by the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority, Tradeweb said. Greece's fiscal crisis worsened in recent days as talks between the debt-burdened country and its creditors deteriorated. Dealers were still contributing prices to Tradeweb, a spokesperson said. Indicative prices for 2-year Greek government debt had been lower, pushing the yield up by 1.8 percentage point to 37.60%....(read more)
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ECB Billions Can't Save Euro-Area Bonds From Worst Quarter Ever

ECB Billions Can't Save Euro-Area Bonds From Worst Quarter Ever Bloomberg The European Central Bank's first full quarter of quantitative easing hasn't stopped the region's government bonds from heading for their worst performance on record. The rout started in April after the ECB's purchases helped send yields on more than ... and more »...(read more)
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Monday, June 29, 2015

"Events Continue to Conspire Against the Fed"

Tuesday: • At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for April. Although this is the April report, it is really a 3 month average of February, March and April prices. The consensus is for a 5.4% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for April. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 4.0% year-over-year in April, and for prices to be unchanged month-to-month seasonally adjusted. • At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June. The consensus is for a reading of 50.6, up from 46.2 in May. From Tim Duy: Events Continue to Conspire Against the Fed......(read more)
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Don't Fight the Fed as Treasuries Drop for 1st Quarter Since '13

Don't Fight the Fed as Treasuries Drop for 1st Quarter Since '13 Bloomberg Haven demand sparked by the crisis in Greece wasn't enough to prevent Treasuries from slumping to a first quarterly loss since 2013, as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates this year. U.S. sovereign debt dropped for a third straight ......(read more)
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Anti-austerity protests in Greece as bank shutdown bites

ATHENS (Reuters) - Tens of thousands of Greeks rallied on Monday to back their leftwing government's rejection of a tough international bailout after a clash with foreign lenders pushed Greece close to financial chaos and forced a shutdown of its banking system....(read more)
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Black Knight: House Price Index up 1.0% in April, 4.9% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted . From Black Knight: April Transactions U.S. Home Prices Up 1.0 Percent for the Month; Up 4.9 Percent Year-Over-Year Today, the Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services, Inc. (NYSE: BKFS) released its latest Home Price Index (HPI?) report, based on April 2015......(read more)
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Bond pros: Volatility, no 'tantrum'

The rate hike has been well telegraphed and is not expected to catch the markets off guard the way Bernanke did in 2013....(read more)
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DoubleLine's Gundlach says purchased 'lots' of Treasuries, Ginnie Maes on Friday

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Jeffrey Gundlach, the widely followed investor who oversees DoubleLine Capital, told Reuters on Monday his firm had purchased "lots of Treasuries and Ginnie Maes" on Friday, ahead of the latest developments in the Greek and Puerto Rico crises....(read more)
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7 things to know about the Greek crisis

Here is an FAQ on top issues-from how to abandon the euro to what a Grexit means to the global markets....(read more)
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Greek drama not likely to waylay Federal Reserve

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The fuse may be lit for a Greek exit from the euro zone but the fallout in the United States is expected to be modest and not enough to throw the Federal Reserve's likely September rate hike off course, said former Fed officials and outside analysts watching the latest turn in Greece's crisis....(read more)
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The 20 Hottest U.S. Real Estate Markets in June 2015

Summer is officially here, and a preliminary analysis of June data for realtor.com® indicates good news ahead for the U.S. residential real estate market-especially in the hot markets with healthy growth in supply. The post The 20 Hottest U.S. Real Estate Markets in June 2015 appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com ....(read more)
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Euro turns positive vs dollar despite Greek drama

The euro proved broadly resilient to Greece's moving one step closer to an exit from the single currency....(read more)
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Pending home sales rise just 0.9% in May

A spike in interest rates may have slowed pending home sales in May, but year-over-year sales are up 10 percent....(read more)
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What Yellen And Other U.S. Officials Have Said About Greece and the Global Economy

Here is a roundup of recent statements by top U.S. officials, including policy makers at the Fed, about international developments, how they might be felt in the U.S. and the implications for monetary policy....(read more)
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The Truth About Down Payments and Down Payment Assistance

By VP Danny Gardner With interest rates low (though rising), more credit available to qualified borrowers, and employment up, it's a good time to buy a home if you are financially ready and able. But many potential homebuyers see the down payment as a hurdle too high to jump. It might be lower than they think, however, and they might be eligible for a financial boost. Read More...(read more)
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ECB's Reaction Seen as Crucial to Keep Markets Stable on Greece

ECB's Reaction Seen as Crucial to Keep Markets Stable on Greece Bloomberg The European Central Bank's response to the mounting Greek crisis will prove crucial to maintaining market stability in the days ahead, according to strategists. Its options, they said, include speeding up bond-buying under its quantitative-easing plan and ... and more »...(read more)
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Sunday, June 28, 2015

Greece imposes capital controls as crisis deepens

ATHENS (Reuters) - Greece moved to check the growing strains on its crippled financial system on Sunday, closing its banks and imposing capital controls that brought the prospect of being forced out of the euro into plain sight....(read more)
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Greece Tries to Defy History of Capital Controls Doomed to Fail

Bloomberg Greece Tries to Defy History of Capital Controls Doomed to Fail Bloomberg Protesters burn a European Union (EU) flag during an anti-austerity demonstration in Thessaloniki, Greece, on Sunday, June 28, 2015. Greece moved to avert the collapse of its financial system, shutting its lenders as of Monday, a measure that will deepen ......(read more)
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Wave of contagion expected after dramatic weekend raises 'Grexit' chances

LONDON (Reuters) - European markets are braced for a wave of contagion from Greece on Monday, with heavy losses for southern European government bonds and regional stock markets expected as investors scramble to discount a possible "Grexit" that most had still assumed was unlikely as late as Friday afternoon....(read more)
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Treasuries Surge With Aussie, Japanese Bonds Amid Greece Turmoil

Treasuries Surge With Aussie, Japanese Bonds Amid Greece Turmoil Bloomberg Treasuries surged along with government bonds in Australia and Japan, as Greece leader Alexis Tsipras's decision to call a referendum on aid conditions scotched speculation the Mediterranean nation would reach a deal with creditors. Yields on benchmark ......(read more)
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Friday, June 26, 2015

A Quieter April for Fed's Janet Yellen After a Flurry of March Meetings

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen met with just two lawmakers in April, both Democrats, according to her monthly calendar obtained by The Wall Street Journal under a Freedom of Information Act request....(read more)
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Small business federal contracts hit a new record

The Small Business Administration revealed on Friday that the federal government awarded almost 25 percent in federal contracts to small businesses....(read more)
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Letter to a Millennial Future Home Buyer

The dark time is over for millennials-it's now time for weddings, babies, and home buying, says our chief economist, Jonathan Smoke. The post Letter to a Millennial Future Home Buyer appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com ....(read more)
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Consumers Are Exuberant in U.S., and They May Not Be Irrational

Consumers Are Exuberant in U.S., and They May Not Be Irrational Bloomberg The University of Michigan's final index of sentiment increased to 96.1 in June, exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists, from a 90.7 May reading. The gain capped the most optimistic first half of any year for households since 2004. and more »...(read more)
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America's most expensive states in 2015

The 10 costliest states to live in may surprise you. These places put hefty price tags on real estate and food prices....(read more)
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Economists Assign Blame For Housing Shortage

The national supply of homes for sale is getting squeezed by the small amount of equity millions of would-be sellers have in their properties and relatively weak output from home builders, according to economists speaking Friday at a real-estate conference in Miami....(read more)
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Are Multi-Family Housing Starts near a peak?

I'm wondering if multi-family housing starts are near a peak. The architecture billings index for multi-family residential market was negative for the fourth consecutive month, and that suggests a slowdown for new apartment construction later this year. That doesn't mean apartment construction will slow sharply, especially since demographics are still favorable for apartments (as discussed below).   But multi-family construction might move sideways. However the NMHC Market Tightness Inde x was still favorable for apartments in Q1, but not as favorable as a few years ago. Note: Parts......(read more)
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Higher-Risk Interest-Only Home Loans Make Comeback

Bloomberg Higher-Risk Interest-Only Home Loans Make Comeback Bloomberg United Wholesale Mortgage President Mat Ishbia explains the company's interest-only home loans. He speaks on "Market Makers." (Source: Bloomberg). Most Recent Videos. Higher-Risk Interest-Only Home Loans Make Comeback · Is Fiat Chrysler Staging a ......(read more)
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Here's How Quickly Yellen Wants to Raise Interest Rates

Bloomberg Here's How Quickly Yellen Wants to Raise Interest Rates, According to a Former ... Bloomberg Former Federal Reserve Governor Laurence Meyer has a guess at where Chair Janet Yellen's interest rate forecast might be. In what's become known as the "dot plot," Fed officials earlier this month showed the public their best estimates for where the central ... and more »...(read more)
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Tsipras Cites Blackmail as Merkel Nudges Greece to Accept Offer

Tsipras Cites Blackmail as Merkel Nudges Greece to Accept Offer Bloomberg German Chancellor Angela Merkel pressed the Greek government to accept a "generous" offer made by creditors, as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras lamented the terms demanded in return for aid. Technical talks are underway in Brussels before euro-area ... and more »...(read more)
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Greece's Creditors Offer $17.3 Billion Package

Bloomberg Greece's Creditors Offer $17.3 Billion Package Bloomberg Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, center left, speaks with Alexis Tsipras, Greece's prime minister, right, as Francois Hollande, France's president, left, listens as Greek debt talks continue during a European leaders summit in Brussels, on Friday, June 26. and more »...(read more)
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