Thursday, April 30, 2015

Where Is Buying Better Than Renting? In the 10 Cities Our Data Team ID'd

Our data scientists crunched the numbers to come up with the places where you can find the best home bargains. (Hint: Don't go west!) The post Where Is Buying Better Than Renting? In the 10 Cities Our Data Team ID’d appeared first on Real Estate News ....(read more)
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Q1 2015 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

The BEA released the underlying details for the Q1 advance GDP report today. Yesterday, the BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 23.1% annual rate in Q1. All of the decline could be attributed to less petroleum exploration and less investment in electrical. Both declined at a 50% annual rate in Q1. There was some weakness in lodging investment, but that might be weather related. Excluding petroleum and electrical, non-residential investment in structures was unchanged in Q1. Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows investment in......(read more)
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Tesla launches Tesla Energy line of batteries for homes, businesses and utilities

This is a breaking news story. Tesla Motors launched late Thursday its Tesla Energy brand with a line of batteries designed for homes, businesses and utilities. Tesla has generated speculation about the device since CEO Elon Musk tweeted last month that it would not be a car....(read more)
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Euro Holds Biggest Monthly Gain Since 2010 as U.S. Bulls Retreat

Euro Holds Biggest Monthly Gain Since 2010 as U.S. Bulls Retreat Bloomberg The euro held its biggest monthly gain in 4 1/2 years as signs of life for the world's second-largest economic bloc contrasted with sluggish U.S. growth, turning the narrative of the previous three quarters on its head. Speculators had built up record bets the ... and more »...(read more)
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Friday: ISM Manufacturing, Auto Sales, Construction Spending

Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in March to 1.78% from 1.83% in February. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.19% in March 2014, and this is the lowest level since September 2008. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%. Earlier Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate was declined in March to 1.73%. Freddie's rate is down from 2.20% in March 2014, and is at the lowest level since December 2008. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. Note: These ......(read more)
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News Release - Fannie Mae Releases March 2015 Monthly ...

The monthly summary report contains information about Fannie Mae's monthly and year-to-date activities....(read more)
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More Builder Results (updated table)

Housing economist Tom Lawler sent me this updated table of builder results for Q1. For these seven builders, net orders were up 19.9% year-over-year.  Although cancellations are handled differently, this is about the same year-over-year increase for Q1 as for New Home sales as reported by the Census Bureau. The average closing price is only up slightly this year following a sharp increase in 2014. From Tom Lawler: Net orders per active community for the seven builders combined were up 13.5% YOY, while their combined order backlog at the end of March was up 13.8% YOY.   Net......(read more)
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Agencies Issue Final Rule on Minimum Requirements for Appraisal Management Companies

Press Release Joint Release Office of the Comptroller of the Currency Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Federal Housing Finance Agency National Credit Union Administration For Immediate Release April 30, 2015 Agencies Issue Final Rule on Minimum Requirements for Appraisal Management Companies WASHINGTON— Six federal financial regulatory agencies today issued a final rule that implements minimum requirements for state registration and supervision of appraisal management companies (AMCs). An AMC......(read more)
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7 years on from crisis, $150B in fines and penalties

More than seven years after the global financial collapse, banks have paid more than $150 billion in fines and other penalties....(read more)
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NAHB Remodelers Reveals the Most Popular Type of Home Remodeling Projects

Press Release...(read more)
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Hot LA housing market held back by tight supply

Home sales in Los Angeles have been hampered by low inventory, especially in the lower price ranges. When do more listings come?...(read more)
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A credit thaw is offering more mortgage options

As it gets easier to get a mortgage, more lenders are getting creative in what they are offering consumers....(read more)
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Statements - Stress Test Results | Fannie Mae

Stress Test Results....(read more)
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Low Mortgage Rates Boost Refinance Activity in the First Quarter

Low Mortgage Rates Boost Refinance Activity in the First Quarter...(read more)
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Stress Test Shows Fannie-Freddie Would Need Bailout in Downturn

Stress Test Shows Fannie-Freddie Would Need Bailout in Downturn Bloomberg Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could require an additional bailout of as much as $157.3 billion in a deep recession, according to the results of stress tests released by the regulator for the U.S.-owned companies. The two mortgage-finance giants, which have ... and more »...(read more)
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Bernanke's Latest Blog Post Takes a Brutal Shot at the Wall Street Journal

Bloomberg Bernanke's Latest Blog Post Takes a Brutal Shot at the Wall Street Journal Bloomberg Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke started a blog at the Brookings Institution late last month, and he has shown a penchant for calling out those with whom he disagrees. The first prominent fight was with Larry Summers over secular stagnation, ... and more »...(read more)
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Chicago New Home Construction Sluggish

While existing home sales are bouncing back in the Chicago area, new home construction is falling short, according to Tribune reporter Mary Ellen Podmolik....(read more)
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U.S. labor costs rise solidly; wage growth picks up

WASHINGTON, (Reuters) - U.S. labor costs rose solidly in the first quarter as wages in the private sector increased, which could keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates this year....(read more)
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Mortgage Rates Up on Mixed Economic and Housing Data

Mortgage Rates Up on Mixed Economic and Housing Data...(read more)
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Will Millennials start buying homes?

Perhaps the best reflection of the economic pressures Millennials face can be seen in the U.S. housing market. The pace of household formation and the rate at which Millennials head their own households is declining. In fact, detailed data show that the drop in homeownership during the financial crisis was the largest for people ages […]...(read more)
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Why Fed should hike in June: UBS chief economist

The Fed is holding back the economy by keeping interest rates at zero and should hike regardless of disappointing economic data, Drew Matus tells CNBC....(read more)
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Fed's Tarullo open to easing regulatory burden on small banks

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo said Thursday he was open to easing the burden of new Dodd-Frank regulations on community banks. Since Dodd-Frank was passed in 2010, smaller banks have complained that they are being caught in too much red tape. In a speech to the Independent Community Bankers of America, Tarullo said regulators "should explore whether we can achieve the safety and soundness purposes of capital regulation in a simplified way." Tarullo is the Fed's point person on bank regulation....(read more)
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 262,000, Lowest since April 2000

The DOL reported : In the week ending April 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 262,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since April 15, 2000 when it was 259,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 295,000 to 296,000. The 4-week moving average was 283,750, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 284,500 to 285,000. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. The previous......(read more)
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Worker Pay in U.S. Increased at Faster Pace in First Quarter

Worker Pay in U.S. Increased at Faster Pace in First Quarter Bloomberg Wages and salaries in the U.S. rose at a faster pace in the first quarter, signaling workers are having some success seeking higher pay as the labor market strengthens. The 0.7 percent advance in pay followed a 0.6 percent increase in the fourth quarter, the ......(read more)
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Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Ben Bernanke Signs on With Pimco, Another Firm Not Regulated by the Fed But With Deep Ties

For the second time this month, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has joined the payroll of a large financial institution. And for the second time, he's defended the move by noting that the institution is not currently regulated by the Federal Reserve....(read more)
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Brief comments on the FOMC Statement and ECI

For the first time in probably 10 years, I had a personal time conflict at the time of the FOMC statement release. Luckily I wasn't worried about a "surprise" ... but the next few meetings could be very interesting (I don't want to miss those releases)! From Tim Duy: FOMC Snoozer The FOMC concluded their meeting today, and the result left Fed watchers struggling to find something interesting to say. ... The FOMC statement provides little new information about the timing or pace of future rates hikes. Even if you believe, as I do, that the first quarter weakness will prove to be largely......(read more)
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Europe's Debt Selloff Erases $61 Billion in Value in One Day

Europe's Debt Selloff Erases $61 Billion in Value in One Day Bloomberg Investors revolting against negative yields in Europe wiped 55 billion euros ($61 billion) off the value of the region's government bonds in one day. The value of European debt dropped to 5.844 trillion euros on Wednesday, the lowest level since March 30, ... and more »...(read more)
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A Rare Win for Economic Forecasting: The Atlanta Fed Almost Nails Its First-Quarter Growth Estimate

The U.S. economy's sharp slowdown in the first three months of the year may have caught almost all Wall Street forecasters off guard. But it didnt surprise the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta....(read more)
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The economy's biggest weakness is … winter?

Winter isn't the economy's only weakness, but it might be the biggest one.Indeed, the economy slowed to a near standstill with just 0.2 percent annualized growth in the first three months of the year, in no small part, because of the cold weather. Still, it takes a lot more than a few snowstorms to knock the economy off the 2.2 percent growth we had at the end of last year, let alone the 5 percent growth we had before that. So something else is also holding us back. The question is how much and for how long?Read full article >>...(read more)
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Gross: Why Fed will have problems raising rates

The U.S. economy will have "problems" reaching goals outlined by the Fed's policy committee, bond guru Bill Gross said....(read more)
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Hey, Fed—What was that?!

Sure it was a tough quarter but the Fed really muddied the waters with its latest statement, says Ron Insana....(read more)
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Not yet: Fed holds rate at zero, no hint for hike

Following through on indications in March, the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday offered no changes to its zero interest rate policy....(read more)
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Yellen May Get No Second Chances at Getting It Right on Fed Rate

Bloomberg Yellen May Get No Second Chances at Getting It Right on Fed Rate Bloomberg The best-case scenario for the U.S. Federal Reserve's first interest-rate increase since 2006 is that the economy and markets don't skip a beat. It's the worst-case scenario that troubles Fed Chair Janet Yellen, according to Bank of America Corp. economist ......(read more)
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Damn the Developers?

Regular old home buyers are having a hard time finding places they can afford. Are investors to blame?...(read more)
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Gross Says U.S. Treasury Moves on Small Trades Show No Liquidity

Gross Says U.S. Treasury Moves on Small Trades Show No Liquidity Bloomberg Bill Gross, the bond manager who joined Janus Capital Group Inc. last year, said there's no liquidity in bond markets. "Treasury bonds move 2-3 ticks on even small trades," Gross wrote in a Twitter message on Tuesday. A tick is an incremental move in bond ......(read more)
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Dollar trounced on weak GDP, view of easy Fed

The dollar nosedived, stocks floundered and bonds sold off as traders awaited the Fed's view of the surprise weakness in first-quarter growth....(read more)
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`Panicky Exit' by Fed Seen as Risk to Markets Even Amid 0.2% GDP

Bloomberg `Panicky Exit' by Fed Seen as Risk to Markets Even Amid 0.2% GDP Bloomberg If you are the type who enjoys stories along the lines of "Here's the One Chart You Need to See Before the Fed Decision," then by all means take a gander below because it's arguably the One Chart You Need to See Before the Fed Decision. As the chart from ......(read more)
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Cheaper oil should help economy? Wrong: BlackRock

BlackRock bond guru Jeff Rosenberg blames oil for the recent economic weakness....(read more)
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Consumers just say no to spending

The first-quarter GDP report put several dents in popular economic narratives, none of which bode well for growth ahead....(read more)
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US crude inventories rise by 1.9M barrels

Oil traded higher as the dollar dropped after data showed the U.S. economy grew much more slowly than expected in the first quarter....(read more)
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E.C.B. Says Loans to Private Sector Rose in March for First Time in 3 Years

The data published by the European Central Bank come amid other signs that eurozone banks are recovering from a crisis that began in 2008....(read more)
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First-Quarter GDP – At A Glance

U.S. economic output expanded at a 0.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the early months of 2015, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Here's a quick look at the report....(read more)
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US economy stalls as weather, low energy prices bite

U.S. economic growth braked more sharply than expected in the first quarter, but there are signs activity is picking up....(read more)
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Eurozone Inflation Expectations Rise

The European Central Bank appears to be winning its battle to persuade households and consumers that inflation will pick up over coming months and years....(read more)
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Treasury slapped over shoddy support for homeowners

In an oversight smackdown, a federal inspector says the U.S. Treasury Department has done far too little in certain states to help troubled homeowners....(read more)
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Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Wednesday: GDP, FOMC

From Bloomberg: Fed Decision Day Guide: From Cooling Economy to Forward Guidance Investors will scrutinize changes to the description of the economy for hints on the likely timing of liftoff after policy makers all but ruled out an interest-rate increase at this meeting. Expectations for the first increase since 2006 have shifted out to September from June as the economy weakened in the first quarter ... Inflation: Signs that consumer prices are stabilizing following a rebound in oil costs could encourage policy makers to tweak their language on inflation.  ... Wednesday: • At 7:00......(read more)
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A Comment on House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in February

The expected slowdown in year-over-year price increases has occurred. In October 2013, the National index was up 10.9% year-over-year (YoY). In February 2015, the index was up 4.2% YoY.  However the YoY change has only declined slightly over the last six months. Looking forward, I expect the YoY increases for the indexes to move more sideways (as opposed to down).   Two points: 1) I don't expect (as some) for the indexes to turn negative YoY (in 2015) , and 2) I think most of the slowdown on a YoY basis is now behind us. This slowdown in price increases was expected by......(read more)
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Spring Foreclosures in Bloom, Heatmapped by County

RealtyTrac's Daren Blomquist updates his foreclosure heatmap with March's year-over-year numbers. And when it comes to foreclosures, March came in like a lamb and out like a lion....(read more)
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Gundlach Considers 100-Times Levered Wager Against German Bonds

Bloomberg Gundlach Considers 100-Times Levered Wager Against German Bonds Bloomberg Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital LP, pauses during a television appearance in New York, on May 17, 2012. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg. Recommended. MAP: Everest Rescue Operation 'No One's Going ... and more »...(read more)
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Is The Government Suing Banks Out Of The Mortgage Market?

Last Thursday, the Department of Justice brought its latest high-profile mortgage-related lawsuit--this time against Quicken Loans Inc., a Detroit-based nonbank that's risen to become one of the largest mortgage originators in the country. Quicken Loans had brought its own lawsuit against the government the week before, alleging that the government had tried to get it to settle and admit to fraud charges it didn't commit. The lawsuit, and others like it, have implications far beyond any ultimate impact on companies' balance sheets. Many of the companies that have been targeted by the lawsuits ......(read more)
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