The Fed in 2016: Here's what you need to know

With the past as prologue, the idea that the Fed would surprise markets with a rate hike seems far-fetched....(read more)

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Chicago PMI declines to 42.9

Chicago PMI: Dec Chicago Business Barometer Down 5.8 points to 42.9 The Chicago Business Barometer contracted at the fastest pace since July 2009, falling 5.8 points to 42.9 in December from 48.7 in November ... There was also ongoing weakness in New Orders, which contracted at a faster pace, to the lowest level since May 2009. The fall in Production was more moderate but still put it back into contraction for the sixth time this year. The Employment component, which had recovered in recent months, dropped back below the 50 neutral mark in December, leaving it at the lowest since July. The......(read more)

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 287,000

The DOL reported : In the week ending December 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 287,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 267,000. The 4-week moving average was 277,000, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 272,500. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. The previous week was unrevised at 267,000. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average.......(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Top Four Percent

Mortgage Rates Top Four Percent...(read more)

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Highest earners' tax rates up sharply

A decline in tax rates of America's wealthiest taxpayers, underway since the late 1990s, recently reversed course....(read more)

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2015 was the hardest year to make money in 78 years

The best-performing asset class of 2015 is only up 2 percent, according to Societe Generale....(read more)

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Expect November Year-over-year Change for Case-Shiller Index slightly higher than in October

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for October were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Zillow: November Case-Shiller Forecast Shows Continued Growth Similar to last month's Zillow's Home Value Index data , October S&P Case-Shiller data shows home prices continuing to climb. The 10- and 20-City Indices as well as the National Case-Shiller Index grew by nearly 1 percent between September and October. Similarly all three of the indices showed annual growth rates north ......(read more)

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Biggest Investors Say Beware the Bond Market as Fed Tightens

Bloomberg Biggest Investors Say Beware the Bond Market as Fed Tightens Bloomberg Bond returns will probably be ho-hum next year -- just as they have been in 2015 -- according to the biggest investors. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Fidelity Investments, Pacific Investment Management Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are all cautioning ... and more »...(read more)

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Housing Rebound: Time for Millennials to Leave the Nest

Rising home values are a double-edged sword for first-time home buyers and existing homeowners. The post Housing Rebound: Time for Millennials to Leave the Nest appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com ....(read more)

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Question #8 for 2016: How much will Residential Investment increase?

Over the weekend, I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2016 . I'll try to add some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2015. 8) Residential Investment: Residential investment (RI) was up solidly in 2015. Note: RI is mostly investment in new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement and commissions on existing home sales. How much will RI increase in 2016? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2016? First a graph of RI as a percent of Gross Domestic Product......(read more)

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CFPB responds to industry concerns about TRID rule liability

Richard J. Andreano, Jr. Reacting to reports of investors refusing to purchase loans based on various, often technical, violations of the TILA/RESPA Integrated Disclosure (TRID) rule, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) sent a letter to the CFPB on December 21, 2015 seeking guidance to allay investor concerns.  (The version of the letter released by the MBA does not include the attachment... More >...(read more)

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U.S. Housing Market Posts Strong Improvement

U.S. Housing Market Posts Strong Improvement...(read more)

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U.S. pending home sales fall in November

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes fell in November for the third time in four months, a signal that growth in the U.S. housing market could be cooling....(read more)

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Global real estate movers and shakers

CNBC takes a look at which housing markets across the world posted the biggest gains in 2015 and which ones you should watch next year....(read more)

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The Best and Worst of the U.S. Economy in 2015

The Best and Worst of the U.S. Economy in 2015 Bloomberg It wasn't all that bad a year to be a Motown resident, or a software publisher, or even a job seeker without a high school degree. Homeowners in West Virginia have less reason to be upbeat, and women are more likely to see the cloudy side of the street. and more »...(read more)

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The bond market is sending off a troubling signal

There's a "tug of war" going on in the bond market now, in the words of one economist. Here's why that matters....(read more)

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Treasury Yield Rises to Nine-Year High Versus Sovereign Peers

Treasury Yield Rises to Nine-Year High Versus Sovereign Peers Bloomberg Treasuries pay the most compared with other government bonds in almost a decade -- and the danger to debt holders is that U.S. yields keep rising. America's sovereign securities due in 10 years or longer yielded 1.4 percentage points more than their ... and more »...(read more)

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From CNBC: "Luxury home prices finally getting too high?"

Wednesday: • At 10:00 AM ET, Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in the index. Note: Long time reader and mortgage broker "Soylent Green Is People" sent me a note yesterday: "the unthinkable is occurring: seems like Irvine home prices have hit an air pocket, falling in some cases." Irvine is expensive, but not a "luxury home" market. But this has me thinking that we might be seeing a slowdown in prices increases (or flat prices) in some areas. From Denise Garcia at CNBC: Luxury home prices finally getting too high? The tables have turned in the real......(read more)

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Treasuries Fall as 5-Year Note Auction Demand Lowest Since 2009

Bloomberg Treasuries Fall as 5-Year Note Auction Demand Lowest Since 2009 Bloomberg Treasury five-year notes fell, pushing yields to the highest since June, as a $35 billion auction of the securities drew the weakest demand in more than six years. Bond prices declined after the five-year debt sold at the highest yield at an auction ... and more »...(read more)

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Economic Report: American median incomes are finally back to prerecession levels

In November, median incomes topped the level set when the Great Recession began - but are still below 2000 levels....(read more)

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Question #9 for 2016: What will happen with house prices in 2016?

Over the weekend, I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2016 . I'll try to add some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2015. 7) House Prices: It appears house prices - as measured by the national repeat sales index (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic) - will be up about 5% or so in 2015 (after increasing 7% in 2012, 11% in 2013, and 5% in 2014 according to Case-Shiller). What will happen with house prices in 2016? The following graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted Composite 10, ......(read more)

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Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in October

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.2% year-over-year in October The year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now around 5%.   In October 2013, the National index was up 10.9% year-over-year (YoY). In October 2015, the index was up 5.2% YoY. Here is the YoY change since January 2014 for the National Index: Month YoY Change Jan-14 10.5% Feb-14 10.1% Mar-14 8.9% Apr-14 7.9% May-14 7.0% Jun-14 6.3% Jul-14 5.6% Aug-14 5.1% Sep-14 4.8% Oct-14 4.6% Nov-14 4.6% Dec-14 4.6% Jan-15 4.3% Feb-15 4.2% Mar-15 4.3%......(read more)

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Consumer Confidence in U.S. Rose More Than Forecast in December

Consumer Confidence in U.S. Rose More Than Forecast in December Bloomberg Consumer confidence rebounded in December, putting Americans in the mood to shop during the holiday season. The Conference Board's index climbed to 96.5, from a revised November reading of 92.6, the New York-based private research group said ... and more »...(read more)

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U.S. home prices rise slightly in October, top forecast

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Annualized U.S. single-family home prices rose in October at a slightly faster pace than in September and above market expectations, a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday....(read more)

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Consumers ARE spending gas savings

Contrary to some economists' calls, consumers ARE spending their gas savings. And, they're likely to keep spending....(read more)

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Marc Faber Takes on Yellen With Recession Call, Likes Treasuries

Bloomberg Marc Faber Takes on Yellen With Recession Call, Likes Treasuries Bloomberg Marc Faber recommends Treasuries and says the U.S. is at the start of an economic recession, clashing with Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's view that things are improving. "Ten-year U.S. Treasuries are quite attractive because of my outlook for a ... and more »...(read more)

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Hot Homes in December's 10 Hottest Housing Markets

We perused cool homes for sale in realtor.com's 10 hottest cities. Focusing on curb appeal, we came up with some sizzling choices for house hunters. The post Hot Homes in December’s 10 Hottest Housing Markets appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com ....(read more)

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The Return of the Affordable Starter Home

Bloomberg The Return of the Affordable Starter Home Bloomberg Surging prices have almost closed off the new-home market to young buyers like Brandon and Quincey Lindemann. But the Denver-area couple has found a way in. The Lindemanns paid $350,000 in October for a three-bedroom house at Tri Pointe Group ......(read more)

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CFPB urges federal district court to disclose names of plaintiffs filing lawsuit against CFPB

Barbara S. Mishkin In October 2015, the D.C. federal district court ruled that the plaintiffs' names should be redacted in all documents filed in a lawsuit against the CFPB initiated by the plaintiffs.  The plaintiffs are a group of businesses and an individual who provide services related to consumer credit counseling and are under investigation by the CFPB. ... More >...(read more)

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CFPB issues TRID rule corrections

Richard J. Andreano, Jr. The CFPB has issued a final rule containing “technical corrections” to the final TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure (TRID) rule that became effective on October 3, 2015.  The corrections are effective December 24, 2015, the date of their publication in the Federal Register. According to the supplementary information accompanying the corrections, the publication of the TRID rule... More >...(read more)

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US Housing: Challenges for Homebuilders in 2016

Bloomberg US Housing: Challenges for Homebuilders in 2016 Bloomberg Bloomberg Gadfly columnist Rani Molla discusses the U.S. housing market. She speaks on "Bloomberg Markets." Molla's comments are her own. (Source: Bloomberg). Related. U.S. Consumers Snap Up Women's Clothing, Furniture. Most Recent Videos. and more »...(read more)

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How much will housing inventory increase in 2016?

Yesterday I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2016 . I'll try to add some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2015. 10) Housing Inventory: Housing inventory bottomed in early 2013.  However, after slight increases in 2013 and 2014, inventory was down slightly year-over-year in 2015 (through November).  Will inventory increase or decrease in 2016? Tracking housing inventory is very helpful in understanding the housing market.  The plunge in inventory in 2011 helped me ......(read more)

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U.S Stocks Fall as Crude Weighs on Energy With Year-End Looming

U.S Stocks Fall as Crude Weighs on Energy With Year-End Looming Bloomberg U.S. stocks declined, tracking a retreat in crude oil following the commodity's strongest weekly gain in four months, as equities headed into the final trading days of the year. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index slipped 0.4 percent to 2,051.96 at 9:33 a ... and more »...(read more)

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Realtor: 94% of Young Renters Want to Buy Homes

Nearly all renters aged 34 or younger want to own a home in the future....(read more)

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Buy housing on higher demand: Firm

Bespoke Investment Group is bullish on housing for 2016 in an annual outlook report to clients....(read more)

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Return of the Single Female Homebuyer

Bloomberg Return of the Single Female Homebuyer Bloomberg It could be a good year for women looking to buy real estate, particularly in cities where their incomes are rising faster than single men. Patrick Clark pat_clark. December 28, 2015 - 4:00 AM PST. Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on WhatsApp....(read more)

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The Hottest U.S. Housing Markets in December 2015

The residential real estate market cooled down in December-though not as much as last year, according to a preliminary analysis of realtor.com® data. The post The Hottest U.S. Housing Markets in December 2015 appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com ....(read more)

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Hedge Funds Abandon Bearish Treasury Market Bets From a Year Ago

Hedge Funds Abandon Bearish Treasury Market Bets From a Year Ago Bloomberg Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators spent December 2014 setting the biggest bets against Treasuries in four years. Fast forward 12 months and they've abandoned those positions. Economists' forecasts show a similar picture. While the ... and more »...(read more)

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U.S. holiday retail sales grow a 'solid' 7.9 percent: MasterCard

(Reuters) - Strong online sales and demand for furniture and women's apparel helped U.S. retail sales grow by a "solid" 7.9 percent this holiday season, according to MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse....(read more)

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Black Knight's First Look at November Mortgage Data, "Fewer than 700,000 Active Foreclosures Remain"

From Black Knight: Black Knight Financial Services' "First Look" at November 2015 Mortgage Data, Foreclosure Starts Hit Nine-Year Low; Fewer than 700,000 Active Foreclosures Remain According to Black Knight's First Look report for November, the percent of loans delinquent increased 3% in November compared to October, and declined 18.3% year-over-year. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined 3% in November and were down 21% over the last year. Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 4.92% in......(read more)

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Consumer Comfort in U.S. Rises to Highest in Almost Two Months - Bloomberg

Consumer Comfort in U.S. Rises to Highest in Almost Two Months Bloomberg Consumer confidence rose last week to the highest level in almost two months as Americans reported brighter attitudes about the national economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index increased to 42.2 in ... and more »...(read more)

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Selling a home in 2016? Here's what you need to know

Read full story for latest details....(read more)

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What Sanders would do to the Fed

Sanders says the Fed "has been hijacked by the very bankers it regulates." The Fiscal Times reports....(read more)

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2013 Integrated Mortgage Disclosures Rule Under the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (Regulation X) and the Truth in Lending Act (Regulation Z); Correction

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (Bureau) is making technical corrections to Regulation Z (Truth in Lending) and the Official Interpretations of Regulation Z. These corrections republish certain provisions of Regulation Z and the Official Interpretations that were inadvertently removed from or not incorporated into the Code of Federal Regulations by the ``Integrated Mortgage Disclosures Under the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (Regulation X) and the Truth in Lending Act (Regulation Z)'' final rule (TILA-RESPA Final Rule)....(read more)

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U.S. jobless claims fall again to near 42-year low

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, nearing a 42-year low as labor market conditions continued...(read more)

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US Treasuries rise in light trade as oil prices bounce

U.S. sovereign bond prices gained on Thursday, weighing on yields as oil prices rose in a shorted trading day for the Christmas holiday....(read more)

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What Little Difference a Year Makes in the U.S. Treasury Market

What Little Difference a Year Makes in the U.S. Treasury Market Bloomberg For all the angst over where the world's benchmark bond yield is going, its level on Christmas Eve is almost exactly the same as a year ago. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.25 percent, versus 2.26 percent on Dec. 24, 2014. Most forecasters at ... and more »...(read more)

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Fannie Mae Releases November 2015 Monthly Summary

The monthly summary report contains information about Fannie Mae's monthly and year-to-date activities....(read more)

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Quintessential Tanta: Reflections on Alt-A (with a Donald Trump mention)

CR Note: Joe Weisenthal at Bloomberg Odd Lots wrote about Tanta this week (my former co-blogger): How One Woman Tried To Warn Everyone About The Housing Crash Or as Bloomberg's Tracy Alloway tweeted: "Big Short be damned. Listen to the conversation @TheStalwart and I had with @calculatedrisk about who saw it coming" Here is a quintessential Tanta piece that really explains mortgage lending. And there is even a Donald Trump mention: What is so dishonest about the association of "subprime" and "poor people" is that it simply erases the fact that a lot of rich people have terrible credit......(read more)

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Productivity crucial to U.S. economy

Now that interest rates have finally been increased, it is time to focus on something other than the Federal Reserve’s moves for a while and look at what is perhaps the single most important problem facing the American economy: the very slow growth of productivity. Productivity, which is the output produced by each hour of work in the non-farm business sector, grew at a paltry 1.2 percent a year in the 10 years through the third quarter of this year. In the prior decade, the growth rate was more than double, at around 3 percent a year. The question is what it means. High-wage......(read more)

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